Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Confirmed! Global warming "hockey stick" graph a fraud - data cherry-picked to show effect that wasn't there!

The hockey stick graph is a classic from years back, that has now been proven to be a fraud perpetrated by those pushing a liberal agenda, and using the debunked theory of man-made global warming to justify it. The graph was a centerpiece of Al Gore's fear-mongering. The researchers that made it refused to disclose their data, even though the study was funded with taxpayer money. Now we know why. I wrote on the hoax before (The hockey stick hoax), and showed that the hockey stick graph is totally inconsistent with data gathered in Europe:



The lead scientist was global warming alarmist Michael Mann, who should be stripped of any further academic duty by virtue of scientific fraud. In essence, man-made global warming is a hoax. It is not man-made, but it is Mann-made. From Planet Gore (via Climate Depot):

1: In 1998, a paper is published by Dr. Michael Mann, then at the University of Virginia, now a Penn State climatologist, and co-authors Bradley and Hughes. The paper is named: Northern Hemisphere Temperatures During the Past Millennium: Inferences, Uncertainties, and Limitations. The paper becomes known as MBH98.

The conclusion of tree ring reconstruction of climate for the past 1,000 years is that we are now in the hottest period in modern history, ever.

...Steve McIntyre, a Canadian mathematician in Toronto, suspects tree rings aren't telling a valid story with that giant uptick at the right side of the graph, implicating the 20th century as the "hottest period in 1000 years," which alarmists latch onto as proof of AGW. The graph is dubbed the "Hockey Stick" and becomes famous worldwide. Al Gore uses it in his movie An Inconvenient Truth in the famous "elevator scene."

2: Steve attempts to replicate Michael Mann's tree ring work in the paper MBH98, but is stymied by lack of data archiving. He sends dozens of letters over the years trying to get access to data but access is denied. McIntyre and Ross McKitrick, of the University of Guelph publish a paper in 2004 criticizing the work. A new website is formed in 2004 called Real Climate, by the people who put together the tree ring data and they denounce the scientific criticism:

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/false-c...

3: Years go by.McIntyre is still stymied trying to get access to the original source data so that he can replicate the Mann 1998 conclusion. In 2008 Mann publishes another paper in bolstering his tree ring claim due to all of the controversy surrounding it. A Mann co-author and source of tree ring data (Professor Keith Briffa of the Hadley UK Climate Research Unit) used one of the tree ring data series (Yamal in Russia) in a paper published in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society in 2008, which has a strict data archiving policy. Thanks to that policy, Steve McIntyre fought and won access to that data just last week.

4: Having the Yamal data in complete form, McIntyre replicates it, and discovers that one of Mann's co-authors, Briffa, had cherry picked 10 tree data sets out of a much larger set of trees sampled in Yamal.

5: When all of the tree ring data from Yamal is plotted, the famous hockey stick disappears. Not only does it disappear, but goes negative. The conclusion is inescapable. The tree ring data was hand-picked to get the desired result.

Here are the relevant graphs showing the fraud:





Ouch! The only questions remaining now are 1) is Mann going to be thrown out for scientific fraud, possibly the worse offense one can make in academia; and 2) will the MSM notice and report on the hoax as much as they reported on it when the hockey stick graph was introduced? Chris Horner wonders:

So now the question is, if tree rings scream and their message is one that few want to hear, does their message get heard?
Steve McIntyre has the money quote:

I hardly know where to begin in terms of commentary on this difference.

- Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit in Yamal: A “Divergence” Problem

The above information is from http://www.sodahead.com/world-news/9292009-confirmed---global...
NOTE: Despite the discreditation of Mann's "hockey stick" graph as an out-and-out fraud, the purveyors of AGW hysteria are still relying on it! It this month's issue of Scientific American, at p. 21, there is an article entitled "Still Hotter Than Ever" which claims that a "new reconstruction of the past 600 years" "finds similar results." They just won't give up!