Your Eyes or Government Data

In a piece, reminiscent of Groucho Marx’s line, “Who you going to believe — me or your lying eyes?,” Karl Denninger of Market Ticker asks the following question and then answers it in his own uncompromising way:

If Consumers Are Spending….

why does this Gallup Chart show levels roughly 40% below their peaks?

If you want to keep believing the BS games being run by the mainstream media, you’re entitled to.

But you have to square your beliefs with the fact that from the top, the affluent, who allegedly are the main support for this economy, are spending at levels self-reported to be about… again…. forty percent below the peak in May of 2008…

Note that these statistics have, to my knowledge, never
been presented on CNBS, Bloomberg or any other “mainstream” media news
site, yet they’re produced by one of the nation’s most-respected polling firms – a firm that all of these news outlets will and do cite when it comes to political matters.

To be fair, the Gallup poll intentionally excludes “necessities of
life” such as housing and food. But “personal spending” – that is,
discretionary expense – is what drives this economy. As such focusing
on that is the best metric out there for the “general weal” of the American Consumer.

I know that “economic optimism” sells well on TV, but then again,
who pays for the television signal to be broadcast? That would be
various businesses that have something to sell you, right?

Let me ask a pointed question:

Have you ever seen a Realtor tell you it’s a bad time to buy a house?

How’d that work out? 2007….. “prices are favorable.” Uh huh.

Likewise, have you ever heard of a car dealer telling you it’s a bad time to buy a car?

So let’s ask the obvious question:

Why would you expect the mainstream media, which gets nearly all of
its money from advertising by people who have something to sell, to
ever tell you that people are not, in fact, going out and shopping?

And since the government – of which the Commerce Department is a
part – is voted into office by people, do you believe the alleged
“increase” in retail sales when Gallup is showing a FORTY PERCENT DECLINE in consumer spending?

Gallup, my friends, doesn’t have anything to sell – except truth.

More importantly, however, is the fact that the consumer is roughly 70% of the economy. If these figures are in fact accurate or anything close to accurate then the so-called GDP numbers, along with “consumer spending” as reported by the government are absolute fictions.

This sort of nonsense can go on in the markets for a while, but it
won’t go on forever. Inventory produced predicated on this alleged
“demand” that does not actually exist will eventually pile up and bury the retail sector, which will then ripple back up through the chain and destroy both producers and financiers, along with stock prices.

I’m sorry folks, but I cannot reconcile a 40% decline in spending,
or even a 20-25% one (if you remove the outliers) with the claimed
“economic recovery” that we are all being sold, nor can I reconcile a
20-25% decline (when the consumer is 70% of the economy) with a GDP that does not reflect a 12-15% top-to-bottom decline – the definition of Depression.

Either Gallup is reporting fantasy numbers or the government is totally full of crap and is literally making things up.

http://www.economicnoise.com/2010/09/13/your-eyes-or-governme...