Will the Health Care ruling affect the presidential race?

Edwin 2012/06/28 16:37:58
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  • Edwin 2012/06/28 16:45:32
    Yes. It is major legislation, and Americans like presidents who are accompli...
    I'm not sure it will help Obama. It will make him appear stronger -- and Americans do like strong presidents. But really, truthfully, most Americans will probably forget it in a couple of weeks.

    Those who already hated Obama will hate him even more. And those who loved him will cheer more loudly. But their votes were already known. The majority of Americans won't care.

    That said, a number of secret organizations (read, SUPERPACs) are taking major ad buys to convince voters how terrible this law is. Unless someone counters that, it *might* become set in the generic voter's mind that this is bad... but that might only reflect on SCOTUS. And since the deciding vote was Roberts, a conservative, that wouldn't have a clear impact on voting...
  • Roger 2012/06/28 16:43:57
    Yes, it will energize opponents of Obama and thus help Romney
    "I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve."
  • Edwin Roger 2012/06/28 17:11:40
    I think those "giants" were already fixated on getting Obama out of office, so I don't see how it changes their votes.
  • Roger Edwin 2012/06/28 17:24:48
    Like me; won't change my vote but, hopefully, like me they are ready to get out and be more vocal and get all those people that wouldn't have gone to the ballot box, to the ballot box I think people are angrier today than they were yesterday. I think they are more worried than they were yesterday. This was the cold shower; the slap in they face. They wake up and make a stand now or never. This is the sleeping giant I refer to.
  • Edwin Roger 2012/06/28 19:14:28
    Perhaps. But it also energizes the other side -- and it gives more incentive for them to work harder. The republican leader of the Senate said that if they get the majority in November, repeal of Obamacare will be their TOP priority (over jobs, the economy, etc.).

    If the SCOTUS had ruled Obamacare unconstitutional, that would have ended it. But it still lives, and the republican leadership has made announced November's election is pretty much ALL about Obamacare. So... liberals and moderates who *like* the fact that it passed have even more reason to vote as well.

    Personally, I think it was a dumb move. In a few weeks most Americans won't care about this bill much, but they will care about the economy. If conservatives want Obama out of office, they should focus on THAT issue, not the one where Obama scored a political win.

    I mean, sure, a lot of people hate the bill, but they already hated Obama. In order to have Romney win, they have to get some OTHER people to vote against Obama -- people whose minds aren't already made up (people who don't hate the bill so much). And this issue is an uphill battle for Romney, while the economy is not.
  • Roger Edwin 2012/06/28 19:35:54
    Obama care is jobs and the economy. It is a major obstacle. Repealing it would invigorate the economy. Most independents do not like Obama care so it helped the republicans in November. You are very wrong. Most people do care and a few weeks will not make a difference. This is a battle that will stay at the forefront and give it a few days, a week or two. See if it goes quietly into the night. It won't. It is stronger than ever. I believe this vote may have in itself pushed Romney over the top cause more swing vote went his way.
  • Edwin Roger 2012/06/29 15:46:48
    One of us will probably be right. Most independents polled strongly approve of all the parts of Obamacare except the individual mandate, from what I've read. But we will see.

    I am confused by your first two sentences: "Obama care is jobs and the economy. It is a major obstacle." Do you mean that because it create jobs and helps the economy it is an obstacle for Romney, or did I not understand the first sentence?
  • Roger Edwin 2012/06/29 19:43:00
    Very simple. My response was to your remark that the senate republicans choose to make repealing obama care a priority over jobs and the economy. The sentence was to say it is all tied together. I thought that became apparent as people read on. Guess i could have written it simpler. Obama care will devistate the job market and the economy. I am sure that the senate republicans will not be egnorining jobs and the economy when they argue against Obama care. It all will tie together. And yes polls show that most independents favor much of the bill. Thats not enough though because 73% said they don't want it in its current form. That is a huge margin against it. Also 44% said they are more likley to vote for a congressional candidate who opposes it while only 26% said they would vote against a candidate that opposes it.
  • Edwin Roger 2012/06/30 02:24:30
    Thank you for the clarification. Ultimately, I think most independents will vote based on two things: 1) the state of the economy in October/November and 2) the number of negative political ads they see.

    Health Care indirectly feeds the second by helping Romney channel money into his coffers, but it won't affect the first one much -- even if it impacts economy at all, the effects won't really become significant until 2012.

    What I predict for the election is Obama by a close margin, the Senate moving closer to Republican control (maybe 51-49), and the House staying pretty close to what it is right now. So... gridlock.

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