Who is going to win in 2012 election?

In trying to simplify the state of the race and move past the
statisticial dead-heat that the national polls show the race in, I have
done a little more electoral map analysis today. I have taken advantage
of RealClearPolitics’ delightful “create your own map” tool. I put
North Carolina and Missouri safely in the Romney ledger, but put New
Mexico and Michigan safely in the Obama ledger. I am putting Minnesota
in the Obama ledger too, but a Pawlenty-as-VP pick could change that.
The reality is that some polls clearly show Michigan very tight as
well; I am just trying to narrow it down.

So with every state assigned except NV, CO, OH, WI, FL, VA, IA, PA
and NH, we have the electoral math at 217 to Obama and 211 to Romney in
the race towards 270.

Pennsylvania is a state that just elected Pat Toomey as Senator two
years ago. Obama leads in polls there, but if voter turnout in the
national embarassment that is the city of Philadelphia ends up being
low, Romney has a very good chance to take the western 2/3 of the state
which is not on welfare. It is not the lowest hanging fruit for Romney
of the eight battleground states I am highlighting, but it is possible.

Wisconsin is a “leans Obama” state in the polls too, and the best
thing I can say is “I don’t believe it”. I just don’t. Nothing in that
state’s recent voting outcomes tells me Obama will win this state.
Furthermore, polls show enthusiasm amongst college students is very low
(and Madison is Obama”s hope in WI). But we shall see …

NV is a state that Steve Wynn delivered to Harry Reid in 2010 and I
believe he will deliver to Mitt Romney in 2012. The other man who
controls NV, Sheldon Adelson, also finds Barack Obama to be appallingly
frightening (Wynn because of domestic policy; Adelson because of foreign
policy). The NV Senate race is shaping up nicely for the Republican
too. The reality is that the Democrats have mastered voter fraud in
Nevada, but I think this one is winnable for Romney.

So the road to the White House looks like this in my opinion for
Romney: The 206 he has now, plus Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Iowa –
this gets him to 272 and the White House even with a loss in Colorado,
Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Michigan. Of
course, a win for Romney in one or more of those states just makes
things much more comfortable for Romney, and I think it could happen in
at least WI and NV (and I wouldn’t mind seeing PA, MN, and/or MI in play
as well). This is the optimistic approach. The concern is that a
sweep of FL, OH, and VA may be tough. I simply see their 2010 voting
results and the possibility of either a Portman (OH) or Rubio (FL) pick
boding very well for Romney … But there is little margin for error for
either candidate, and note that if Romney wins OH, VA, and FL, but loses
IA, he loses the election. It is that tight (at present).

Ultimately I can’t see how the eventual winner ends up taking much
more than 285 electoral votes, but of course that assumes that one
candidate does not break out after their convention.

Big picture, I still believe that the poll bothering me the most is
not Ohio or Wisconsin, but rather the intrade odds showing people
betting money on Obama winning. However, all of these polls should be
re-visited after Romney makes his VP pick and after the convention. The
economy, voter enthusiasm, the 2010 results, and a plethora of raw
empirical data still leaves me optimistic that Barack Obama will be a
one-term President.