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U.S. Intelligence Tests Crowdsourcing Against its Experts: Who's Better at Predicting Terrorist Attacks?

Heisenberg 2012/08/22 19:00:00
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LATIMES.COM reports:
Might the 'wisdom of crowds' be better at predicting wars and terrorism than the U.S. government's top intelligence experts? The idea is being put to the test.
crowdsourcing

Read More: http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-...

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Top Opinion

  • Heisenberg 2012/08/22 19:02:56
    Intelligence Experts
    Heisenberg
    +11
    I say leave intelligence gathering to the experts.

    Let the politicians show up later for a fake photo op.

    intelligence asset kill bin laden

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  • mikeeonly 2012/08/23 03:43:07
    Intelligence Experts
    mikeeonly
    +1
    it's their job
  • T A 2012/08/23 03:04:27
    Intelligence Experts
    T A
    +1
    Intelligence experts work for the people who start the wars. Terrorists aren't the problem, politicians are.
  • Red_Horse 2012/08/23 02:59:21
  • Al B Thayer 2012/08/23 02:01:05
    Intelligence Experts
    Al B Thayer
    +1
    Salman Rushdie
  • Swampdog Al B Th... 2012/08/23 22:56:36
    Swampdog
    Good un!
  • sean 2012/08/23 01:15:48
    Wisdom of Crowds
    sean
    +1
    Most Police, Firefighters Now Believe 9/11 Inside Job
    or as i call them Experts..with no hidden agenda. http://www.infowars.com/artic...
  • Al B Th... sean 2012/08/23 02:02:53
    Al B Thayer
    +4
    Three men can keep a secrete when two of them are dead.
  • sean Al B Th... 2012/08/23 02:52:32
    sean
    +1
    rule #1 always have a pat·sy 
    noun, plural pat·sies. Slang .
    1. a person who is easily swindled, deceived, coerced, persuaded, etc.; sucker.
    2. a person upon whom the blame for something falls; scapegoat; fall guy.
    3. a person who is the object of a joke, ridicule, or the like.
  • Al B Th... sean 2012/08/23 16:54:39
    Al B Thayer
    +1
    Making blanket statements about what police and fire fighter believe on this board just won't go without a challenge. Can you provide some source for this claim? The BS meter is pegging on this one.
  • Red_Horse Al B Th... 2012/08/23 03:00:09
  • THTAYLOR sean 2012/08/23 04:39:17
    THTAYLOR
    +2
    Have worked with Police and Fire dept. people for over 30 yrs. I know of NONE that think 9/11 was a inside job.
  • sean THTAYLOR 2012/08/23 04:46:08
  • THTAYLOR sean 2012/08/23 04:54:30
    THTAYLOR
    +1
    Ohio, have worked many years with State, City, and County Police , Fire and Rescue Depts, worked and shared many hours talking about 9/11. Have NEVER heard 1 say they bought that inside Gov. job CRAP.
  • observer THTAYLOR 2012/08/24 15:37:36
    observer
    +1
    Conspiracy theorists live in their own world. They don't need to talk to any real people.
  • SoclJustice 2012/08/23 00:59:48 (edited)
    Intelligence Experts
    SoclJustice
    +2
    Groupthink. Warning. Group Think. In play here. Critical intell always better.
  • Adam 2012/08/23 00:23:17
    Wisdom of Crowds
    Adam
    +1
    Well...in a way...

    Ever hear of Foldit?

    http://fold.it/portal/

    Foldit is a game. You know, like Angry Birds, Tetris, whatever your into. In it, you follow rules and unfold stuff. Unlike Angry Birds, lots of people playing this game has helped treat HIV. See, computers can be used to predict how certain proteins act, but unfortunately, they are very bad at the sort of common sense shortcuts that would let them predict how these proteins behave. People can make these sort of logical leaps, but usually there's only so many researchers doing the work. In Foldit, the researchers frame a set of problems as a sort of game that allows the individuals contributions add up to something the researcher can use.

    In this sense, Wisdom of Crowds could be fantastic. This is exactly the kind of problems that humans logic can solve. The trick is that without an intelligence expert framing the task and interpreting the data, all that croudsourced processing power is useless. So sure, an intelligence expert is better then a crowd at making these predictions. But an expert utilizing a crowd is going to be exponentially more effective, both in efficacy AND cost.
  • BlutandEhre 2012/08/22 23:04:01
  • sean Blutand... 2012/08/23 01:18:29
    sean
    +1
    who do you think is behind all this..but the CIA and military ! http://www.infowars.com/artic...
  • Blutand... sean 2012/08/23 02:11:22
  • Master sean 2012/08/23 02:13:10
    Master
    LOL alex jones is a freaking loser who made his name off 911
  • observer Master 2012/08/23 03:23:14
    observer
    Who is Alex Jones?
  • Scandalf observer 2012/08/23 12:14:32
    Scandalf
    A guy abducted by aliens.
  • observer Scandalf 2012/08/24 01:29:54
    observer
    I really don't know who Alex Jones is. Is he one of the authors of the 9/11 conspiracy theories? I'm guessing this, as the remark was "alex jones is a freaking loser who made his name off 911".
  • Master observer 2012/08/24 02:28:39
    Master
    The guy on the link above us sean's comment
  • observer Master 2012/08/24 02:47:21
    observer
    +1
    So, my guess was correct -- he is one of the conspiracy theorists.
  • Scandalf observer 2012/08/24 11:28:27
    Scandalf
    +1
    Man, he is more than just that!
    You should check him out, he's funny!
  • ed 2012/08/22 22:51:54
    Intelligence Experts
    ed
    the important thing is knowing what to do with them when they are caught.
  • evangelism_vision 2012/08/22 22:32:33
    Intelligence Experts
    evangelism_vision
    +8
    ************************** THEY MISSED ONE ***************************

    OBAMA IS A TERRORIST
  • Todd The Libertarian 2012/08/22 22:22:42
    Intelligence Experts
    Todd The Libertarian
    No president or polotician does!I mean all partys.It is intel and our great military.
  • Mr.Hoodz the Truth Troll 2012/08/22 22:19:09
    Wisdom of Crowds
    Mr.Hoodz the Truth Troll
    +1
    In the hood the folks have more of an idea of whats going on than the cops do so I'm sure it's the same way with this situation.
  • nightcrawler2005 2012/08/22 21:37:15
    Intelligence Experts
    nightcrawler2005
    +1
    Have no use for any country that wants its citizens to start reporting or informing on each other. Leave it to the experts.

    P.S. If you want to find terrorists just get a 16 year old Muslim jihadist wannabe and a laptop. I guarantee you he will be able to find the terrorist on the internet in minutes.
  • ☆WillThompson☆ 2012/08/22 21:28:50
    Wisdom of Crowds
    ☆WillThompson☆
    +1
    Sorry Art, but from my experience, the info we obtained from the locals was usually more accurate and up to date than what we obtained from "Intelligence".
  • bob 2012/08/22 20:47:41
    Wisdom of Crowds
    bob
    Intelligence so that's what we call how money they waste.
  • D.C. Willis 2012/08/22 20:31:23
    Intelligence Experts
    D.C. Willis
    +2
    I say the experts because they are more privy to the classified government policies that cause things to happen.
  • Raithere 2012/08/22 20:26:50
    Wisdom of Crowds
    Raithere
    +1
    Experts tend to be similarly educated and trained and thus tend to share the same preconceptions and blind spots.
  • Bunk11 2012/08/22 20:17:58
    Wisdom of Crowds
    Bunk11
    +1
    Too much political correctness on the part of the "experts."
  • Dan der Mensch 2012/08/22 20:12:09
    Wisdom of Crowds
    Dan der Mensch
    +1
    No none of this... just follow Barry for a week. He's sure to lead you to one or two (Bill Ayers, Joe Iosbaker).
  • mae 2012/08/22 19:46:22
    Wisdom of Crowds
    mae
    +2
    Crowdsourcing! It's amazing what people over-hear, or have someone tell them...Thanks for paying attention, US Government!
  • brian.southworth.921 2012/08/22 19:31:45
    Wisdom of Crowds
    brian.southworth.921
    +3
    Let's see, intelligence they missed.
    911
    Pearl Harbor
    Weapons of mass destruction.
    Assassinations or attempts on presidents.
    ....................?...........
    Can't see how crowds could do any worse, seems like a crap shoot to me. :-)
  • Heisenberg 2012/08/22 19:02:56
    Intelligence Experts
    Heisenberg
    +11
    I say leave intelligence gathering to the experts.

    Let the politicians show up later for a fake photo op.

    intelligence asset kill bin laden

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