A few things the computer model didn't factor is a man who hides his money offshore, doesn't pay taxes, suggests to big business to do the same, works at a company who has laid off thousands of workers and destroyed their pensions have no credibility whatsoever when it comes to fixing economy or lowering deficit.
Other factors omitted would include a total opposition party that had a secret meeting the night of the president's inauguration and plotted to undermine the economy and the presidency for political gain. Not to mention the President is leading in virtually every swing state.
When Romney is only garnering 23% of the Latino vote, 0% of the African American vote and 34% of the female vote. I'd really like to know what were the parameters programmed into the algorithms that made it come to it's conclusion.
More over I'd trust the methodology of Allan Lichtman who have predicted every single election accurately Since Ford-Carter. Nate Silver also calls BS on the computer and it's "never before used" model.
University of Colorado Analysis Predicts Romney Victory: Can Computer Forecast 2012 Election?
Fef
2012/08/24 19:00:00
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400 votes
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554 votes
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University of Colorado political science professors have correctly predicted the past eight presidential elections since 1980 using a forecasting model. Their model shows Mitt Romney defeating the incumbent president mostly due to the economy. Obama captures only 218 electoral votes -- well shy of the required 270 to win the presidency. The model also shows Romney winning the popular vote by nearly 5 percent in a head-to-head election.
"Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble," said Bickers, also director of the CU in DC Internship Program. Bickers says the model relies heavily on the economy and unemployment. Bickers states, "the incumbency advantage enjoyed by President Obama, though statistically significant, is not great enough to offset high rates of unemployment currently experienced in many of the states."
"What is striking about our state-level economic indicator forecast is the expectation that Obama will lose almost all of the states currently considered as swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida," Bickers said.
The professor says the heavy influence of the economy and stewardship of the nation factors in more than the undemocratic influences: "It’s not about gaffes, political commercials or day-to-day campaign tactics. I find that heartening for our democracy."
"Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble," said Bickers, also director of the CU in DC Internship Program. Bickers says the model relies heavily on the economy and unemployment. Bickers states, "the incumbency advantage enjoyed by President Obama, though statistically significant, is not great enough to offset high rates of unemployment currently experienced in many of the states."
"What is striking about our state-level economic indicator forecast is the expectation that Obama will lose almost all of the states currently considered as swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida," Bickers said.
The professor says the heavy influence of the economy and stewardship of the nation factors in more than the undemocratic influences: "It’s not about gaffes, political commercials or day-to-day campaign tactics. I find that heartening for our democracy."
Read More: http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/08/22/a...
Top Opinion
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Proggy 2012/08/25 15:39:55
Romney will not win because of the Peter-Paul theory which states, "If one robs Peter to pay Paul, one may count on the support of Paul". At least 47% of the US population is receiving some sort of largesse from the federal government, this figure does include Social Security recipients. One may assume that a very good portion of that 47% will be Obama supporters---it's going to be a very, very dicy election. I hope I'm wrong, but I think that computer model is all wet.
2. Obama won 9 out of 11 important states. He destroyed John McCain, the war hero statesman. Do people really think President Obama will even come close to losing?
Bonus: The Red States are big and they look impressive on the map. However, they are sparsely populated and therefore have much fewer votes. Texas is the biggest state that can be "counted on" to go red and it has ~34 votes. Liberals have California and it has ~55. Normally Conservatives can rely on the 1-2 punch of Texas and Florida to make up for the difference California holds, but uh-oh! Obama won Fl in 2008.
Obama will win in 2012. It's not a guess, it's math.
But feel free to follow the news articles and polls. Gotta keep MSM (yes that includes Fox) fed and advertisers happy.
Obama will lose almost all of the states currently considered as swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida, Niiiiice!!!!
I said no because no one can predict an election result with 100% certainty, but it's looking good yayyy!!
thanks Mich52
the only poll that matters is on election day.
The Proglodytes with the media in-pocket, vilified Nixon for years to get Carter and repeated that feat with Bush to install 0bozo.
Here we go again
Other factors omitted would include a total opposition party that had a secret meeting the night of the president's inauguration and plotted to undermine the economy and the presidency for political gain. Not to mention the President is leading in virtually every swing state.
When Romney is only garnering 23% of the Latino vote, 0% of the African American vote and 34% of the female vote. I'd really like to know what were the parameters programmed into the algorithms that made it come to it's conclusion.
More over I'd trust the methodology of Allan Lichtman who have predicted every single election accurately Since Ford-Carter. Nate Silver also calls BS on the computer and it's "never before used" model.
Show me your evidence of racism. I really get so sick of people using the race card, it is so boring and just does not work anymore.
Ms. Applewhite hopped on a bus, went to the PennDOT center, and got herself an ID card. She apparently did this without consulting the vote-fraud defenders that have been using her as a prop in their legal battles. Now they’ll need a fire hose to clean the egg from their faces.
With regards to the "race" allegations.... That's just "luvguins!" She's been playing that card so long the spots are wearing off! :) OS
Remember, there have only been 10 cases of voter fraud since 2000.
Romney/Ryan are not targeting anyone. If they don't own cars and lack IDs, how do they vote? It's very feasible for anyone to get an ID card, things have been put in place in Texas to help people get them for free.
WASHINGTON, April 11 —" Five years after the Bush administration began a crackdown on voter fraud, the Justice Department has turned up virtually no evidence of any organized effort to skew federal elections, according to court records.
Although Republican activists have repeatedly said fraud is so widespread that it has corrupted the political process and, possibly, cost the party election victories, about 120 people have been charged and 86 convicted as of last year."
That's since 2000.
I read all of the ones from ACORN alone and it is more than that... it is true that most voter fraud can sway smaller elections easier than the presidential elections for obvious reasons. However you get down to swing states, couple hundred votes can make all the difference. Just ask Al Gore lol
Secondly voting fraud is very hard to "quantify" statistically, how many dead relatives vote every year or dead pets, or multi-registered people. I know there were 50 convictions in Texas alone. Our election system is very important and I think it's worth securing.