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University of Colorado Analysis Predicts Romney Victory: Can Computer Forecast 2012 Election?

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University of Colorado political science professors have correctly predicted the past eight presidential elections since 1980 using a forecasting model. Their model shows Mitt Romney defeating the incumbent president mostly due to the economy. Obama captures only 218 electoral votes -- well shy of the required 270 to win the presidency. The model also shows Romney winning the popular vote by nearly 5 percent in a head-to-head election.

"Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble," said Bickers, also director of the CU in DC Internship Program. Bickers says the model relies heavily on the economy and unemployment. Bickers states, "the incumbency advantage enjoyed by President Obama, though statistically significant, is not great enough to offset high rates of unemployment currently experienced in many of the states."

"What is striking about our state-level economic indicator forecast is the expectation that Obama will lose almost all of the states currently considered as swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida," Bickers said.

The professor says the heavy influence of the economy and stewardship of the nation factors in more than the undemocratic influences: "It’s not about gaffes, political commercials or day-to-day campaign tactics. I find that heartening for our democracy."

Read More: http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/08/22/a...

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  • Proggy 2012/08/25 15:39:55
    No
    Proggy
    +33
    A few things the computer model didn't factor is a man who hides his money offshore, doesn't pay taxes, suggests to big business to do the same, works at a company who has laid off thousands of workers and destroyed their pensions have no credibility whatsoever when it comes to fixing economy or lowering deficit.

    Other factors omitted would include a total opposition party that had a secret meeting the night of the president's inauguration and plotted to undermine the economy and the presidency for political gain. Not to mention the President is leading in virtually every swing state.

    When Romney is only garnering 23% of the Latino vote, 0% of the African American vote and 34% of the female vote. I'd really like to know what were the parameters programmed into the algorithms that made it come to it's conclusion.

    More over I'd trust the methodology of Allan Lichtman who have predicted every single election accurately Since Ford-Carter. Nate Silver also calls BS on the computer and it's "never before used" model.

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  • bye 2012/08/25 19:20:49
    Yes
    bye
    Lets be real till the votes get cast who knows and if something dump or bad happens between then and now who can predict that?
  • HL 2012/08/25 19:11:23 (edited)
    No
    HL
    +1
    I will remind everyone that these two professors have cautioned people that, just because this has worked in the past, doesn't mean it will come to past because each election is unique & can be unpredictable, especially where dead heats are concerned. Plus, their data was plugged in based on June data. Things change. They are going to update their data in September, but again, what they predict may not work. Their words, not mine.
  • Resp 2012/08/25 18:49:31
    Yes
    Resp
    +3
    If Romney wins many blacks said they would riot. I guess we'll have a riot.
  • **StarzAbove** 2012/08/25 18:42:51
    No
    **StarzAbove**
    +1
    Heck a computer can't even predict the weather, let alone an election.
  • lucky 2012/08/25 18:33:30
    Yes
    lucky
    +1
    To some degree as long as there isnt any significant changes.
  • Bud 2012/08/25 18:13:45
    No
    Bud
    +1
    Computer models have also stated that a good portion of Manhatten Island will be under water within a decade due to melting of the polar icecaps even though there is no land at the north pole; so melting ice won't raise water levels at all. The fact that the computer model has been accurate for eight elections is more of an anomely than an indication of accuracy; baseball teams have winning streaks but that doesn't mean that they will go on winning forever.

    Romney will not win because of the Peter-Paul theory which states, "If one robs Peter to pay Paul, one may count on the support of Paul". At least 47% of the US population is receiving some sort of largesse from the federal government, this figure does include Social Security recipients. One may assume that a very good portion of that 47% will be Obama supporters---it's going to be a very, very dicy election. I hope I'm wrong, but I think that computer model is all wet.
  • Erik 2012/08/25 18:05:54
    Yes
    Erik
    +1
    its possible...
  • shrfu31 2012/08/25 17:54:11
    No
    shrfu31
    +2
    1. Lol @ Americans who don't know what the Electoral College is.

    2. Obama won 9 out of 11 important states. He destroyed John McCain, the war hero statesman. Do people really think President Obama will even come close to losing?

    Bonus: The Red States are big and they look impressive on the map. However, they are sparsely populated and therefore have much fewer votes. Texas is the biggest state that can be "counted on" to go red and it has ~34 votes. Liberals have California and it has ~55. Normally Conservatives can rely on the 1-2 punch of Texas and Florida to make up for the difference California holds, but uh-oh! Obama won Fl in 2008.

    Obama will win in 2012. It's not a guess, it's math.
    But feel free to follow the news articles and polls. Gotta keep MSM (yes that includes Fox) fed and advertisers happy.
  • ChiTownGirl 2012/08/25 17:50:52
    No
    ChiTownGirl
    +2
    I read this article a few days ago and I like what I see. I especially love this:

    Obama will lose almost all of the states currently considered as swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida, Niiiiice!!!!

    I said no because no one can predict an election result with 100% certainty, but it's looking good yayyy!!
  • Meako 2012/08/25 17:14:02
    No
    Meako
    +1
    The computer is only going to tell you what you want to know by the information that's been entered into it..

    thanks Mich52
  • beavith1 2012/08/25 17:13:56
    Yes
    beavith1
    +5
    sure. the problem is that a forecast is a projection based on what the model is presenting at this moment.

    the only poll that matters is on election day.
  • Proggy beavith1 2012/08/25 20:59:37
    Proggy
    +1
    Now THAT we can agree on.
  • A Lionheart 2012/08/25 17:11:40
    No
    A Lionheart
    I doubt it
  • Old Geecer 2012/08/25 16:32:32
    No
    Old Geecer
    Computers can do allot of things but predicting a election is just a guess, Obama has burnt allot of bridges to not get reelected, Its the people that are not party loyalists that will decide who will be elected. Romney on the other hand has burnt allot of bridges when he choose Ryan because people know the inter working of the GOP and they have never been for the laboring class, they feed from the poor and elderly (just like what Obama has been doing) and the majority of people will choose one of these bad dogs for are next President. Remember only about 20% of the people know who is running for president and this is why we cannot have fair election, more people hate both candidates equally as much and we will not get a President by the people! This Election is just for Parties and not for the People! This is why this Nation is in deep trouble and will never recover from this man made recession!
  • Rust 2012/08/25 16:22:52
  • Schläue~© Rust 2012/08/25 19:02:17
    Schläue~©
    +2
    Pretty much.
    The Proglodytes with the media in-pocket, vilified Nixon for years to get Carter and repeated that feat with Bush to install 0bozo.

    Here we go again
  • Cordingly 2012/08/25 16:19:50
    Yes
    Cordingly
    +1
    Interesting and true points, we'll know for sure in a few months.
  • Unicorns vs Narwhals 2012/08/25 16:15:35
    No
    Unicorns vs Narwhals
    +1
    I sure hope it's right this time though.
  • Tea cakes 2012/08/25 16:08:13
    No
    Tea cakes
  • DS in Oak Ridge NC 2012/08/25 15:55:05
    Yes
    DS in Oak Ridge NC
    A good data-based model would be an excellent prediction tool.
  • Proggy 2012/08/25 15:39:55
    No
    Proggy
    +33
    A few things the computer model didn't factor is a man who hides his money offshore, doesn't pay taxes, suggests to big business to do the same, works at a company who has laid off thousands of workers and destroyed their pensions have no credibility whatsoever when it comes to fixing economy or lowering deficit.

    Other factors omitted would include a total opposition party that had a secret meeting the night of the president's inauguration and plotted to undermine the economy and the presidency for political gain. Not to mention the President is leading in virtually every swing state.

    When Romney is only garnering 23% of the Latino vote, 0% of the African American vote and 34% of the female vote. I'd really like to know what were the parameters programmed into the algorithms that made it come to it's conclusion.

    More over I'd trust the methodology of Allan Lichtman who have predicted every single election accurately Since Ford-Carter. Nate Silver also calls BS on the computer and it's "never before used" model.
  • luvguins Proggy 2012/08/25 15:59:40 (edited)
    luvguins
    +20
    Lichtman has predicted correctly every election since 1984 including the split in the electoral/popular vote in the 2000 election. CO hasn't provided or predicted anything with their new model according to Silver. Part of the dirty Republican tricks of race baiting, voter suppression, and Romney/Ryan lies.
  • ღ♥ღ ℒea... luvguins 2012/08/25 21:52:14
    ღ♥ღ ℒea ღ♥ღ
    +3
    race baiting? Voter suppression? Where the hell do you get this?
  • luvguins ღ♥ღ ℒea... 2012/08/25 22:33:23
    luvguins
    +8
    It is obvious, my dear.
  • ღ♥ღ ℒea... luvguins 2012/08/26 04:30:13
    ღ♥ღ ℒea ღ♥ღ
    +2
    I'm asking you your opinion to express further on what you were claiming.
  • luvguins ღ♥ღ ℒea... 2012/08/26 04:49:31
    luvguins
    +6
    GOP legislators in Ohio and PA are admitting voter suppression with IDs and cancelling early voting. Romney is pandering to racist birthers and white redneck racists in the South.
  • ღ♥ღ ℒea... luvguins 2012/08/26 05:02:09
    ღ♥ღ ℒea ღ♥ღ
    +2
    ID cards are not voter suppression. I understand you probably don't like ID cards because it would prevent any illegals from voting Democrat, but you should focus more on creating a system where we have confidence in the voting process.

    Show me your evidence of racism. I really get so sick of people using the race card, it is so boring and just does not work anymore.
  • luvguins ღ♥ღ ℒea... 2012/08/26 05:07:32
    luvguins
    +6
    I should have know I'd get the typical right wing denial. How about inviting a white nationalist to CPAC this year to hold a round table? CPAC nationalist
  • Old Salt ღ♥ღ ℒea... 2012/08/26 06:48:39
  • Singerar ღ♥ღ ℒea... 2012/08/26 18:18:25
    Singerar
    +3
    FYI - the ID issue will effect millions of people. Those in poor pockets and the Elderly all over America will suffer. These people don't drive/ or don't even own cars. Because of this, they lack ID. Romney/ Ryan camp are targeting these people, not illegal aliens.

    Remember, there have only been 10 cases of voter fraud since 2000.
  • ღ♥ღ ℒea... Singerar 2012/08/28 19:49:49
    ღ♥ღ ℒea ღ♥ღ
    you are wrong about 10 cases of voter fraud. Where did you get that? LOL I would like to see the source on that one.

    Romney/Ryan are not targeting anyone. If they don't own cars and lack IDs, how do they vote? It's very feasible for anyone to get an ID card, things have been put in place in Texas to help people get them for free.
  • Singerar ღ♥ღ ℒea... 2012/08/28 21:24:18
    Singerar
    From NY Times: (sorry my assumption was a "little" off)

    WASHINGTON, April 11 —" Five years after the Bush administration began a crackdown on voter fraud, the Justice Department has turned up virtually no evidence of any organized effort to skew federal elections, according to court records.

    Although Republican activists have repeatedly said fraud is so widespread that it has corrupted the political process and, possibly, cost the party election victories, about 120 people have been charged and 86 convicted as of last year."

    That's since 2000.
  • ღ♥ღ ℒea... Singerar 2012/08/29 07:57:02
    ღ♥ღ ℒea ღ♥ღ
    no need to apologize, :-)

    I read all of the ones from ACORN alone and it is more than that... it is true that most voter fraud can sway smaller elections easier than the presidential elections for obvious reasons. However you get down to swing states, couple hundred votes can make all the difference. Just ask Al Gore lol

    Secondly voting fraud is very hard to "quantify" statistically, how many dead relatives vote every year or dead pets, or multi-registered people. I know there were 50 convictions in Texas alone. Our election system is very important and I think it's worth securing.
  • Singerar ღ♥ღ ℒea... 2012/08/29 21:39:07
    Singerar
    I just know that the percentage put on the news the other night was .000049 percent in the Nation. It's really NOT enough to keep the poor, elderly, and minorities from voting.
  • ღ♥ღ ℒea... Singerar 2012/09/04 00:14:10
    ღ♥ღ ℒea ღ♥ღ
    it does not prevent the elderly, the poor, or the minorities from voting. And why does it take days to receive notices people comment to me, something wrong with my SodaHead account.
  • Singerar ღ♥ღ ℒea... 2012/09/05 04:53:09
    Singerar
    +1
    Those are the demographics of people who dont have ID's because they don't drive. I'm not saying ALL those people, I'm just giving you the groups who would have problems.
  • ღ♥ღ ℒea... Singerar 2012/09/08 04:49:55
    ღ♥ღ ℒea ღ♥ღ
    +1
    fair enough :-)
  • scblues... ღ♥ღ ℒea... 2012/08/28 19:18:23
    scbluesman13
    It's not just requiring ID cards (which, if you don't have one and are now required to have one - which requires paying for a BC to get an ID - amounts to a poll tax, which is suppression), but also cancellation of early voting and same day registration in districts that predominantly vote democratic. It is transparently suppressive, and thankfully a circuit judge hearing the case for the State of Ohio has temporarily blocked this law.
  • ღ♥ღ ℒea... scblues... 2012/08/28 20:00:40
    ღ♥ღ ℒea ღ♥ღ
    you have to have your birth certificate for many many many things. So you cannot use that and say it's a polling tax. in most places you have to register before you can vote. So I really don't see the big deal of having an ID card. They are not hard to obtain. Also many services have been put out there to get these cards for people for free. It's not voter suppression.
  • scblues... ღ♥ღ ℒea... 2012/08/28 20:07:30
    scbluesman13
    No one can get their BC for free, and that's where the poll tax argument comes from. And obviously there are hundreds of thousands of Americans who have been living their lives without ever having to obtain a photo ID. There are also many many elderly voters in this country who were birthed at home (not in a hospital) who do not have original birth certificates. But up until now, their right to vote has never been infringed since the voter rights act was passed. And there is no sound or rational reason to infringe upon it now. Voter fraud is not an issue in this country. Not one big enough to warrant this kind of legislation. That has just been an ongoing smokescreen argument for these GOP state legislators to try and enact these suppression laws in districts where the voters are predominantly democratic (students, elderly, poor, and people of color).

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