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University of Colorado Analysis Predicts Romney Victory: Can Computer Forecast 2012 Election?

Fef 2012/08/24 19:00:00
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University of Colorado political science professors have correctly predicted the past eight presidential elections since 1980 using a forecasting model. Their model shows Mitt Romney defeating the incumbent president mostly due to the economy. Obama captures only 218 electoral votes -- well shy of the required 270 to win the presidency. The model also shows Romney winning the popular vote by nearly 5 percent in a head-to-head election.

"Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble," said Bickers, also director of the CU in DC Internship Program. Bickers says the model relies heavily on the economy and unemployment. Bickers states, "the incumbency advantage enjoyed by President Obama, though statistically significant, is not great enough to offset high rates of unemployment currently experienced in many of the states."

"What is striking about our state-level economic indicator forecast is the expectation that Obama will lose almost all of the states currently considered as swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida," Bickers said.

The professor says the heavy influence of the economy and stewardship of the nation factors in more than the undemocratic influences: "It’s not about gaffes, political commercials or day-to-day campaign tactics. I find that heartening for our democracy."

Read More: http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/08/22/a...

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  • Proggy 2012/08/25 15:39:55
    No
    Proggy
    +33
    A few things the computer model didn't factor is a man who hides his money offshore, doesn't pay taxes, suggests to big business to do the same, works at a company who has laid off thousands of workers and destroyed their pensions have no credibility whatsoever when it comes to fixing economy or lowering deficit.

    Other factors omitted would include a total opposition party that had a secret meeting the night of the president's inauguration and plotted to undermine the economy and the presidency for political gain. Not to mention the President is leading in virtually every swing state.

    When Romney is only garnering 23% of the Latino vote, 0% of the African American vote and 34% of the female vote. I'd really like to know what were the parameters programmed into the algorithms that made it come to it's conclusion.

    More over I'd trust the methodology of Allan Lichtman who have predicted every single election accurately Since Ford-Carter. Nate Silver also calls BS on the computer and it's "never before used" model.

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  • Katherine 2012/08/24 14:31:37
    No
    Katherine
    +3
    Vegas has bets, evidently, that it will be a landslide for Romney.

    OB pissed off Catholics, pissed off Jewish, pissed off Navy Seals, pissed off regular democrats, pissed off small businesses, pissed of immigrants who came here LEGALLY.

    But none of that takes into account mass voter fraud.
  • Deep007 Katherine 2012/08/24 15:07:11
    Deep007
    +2
    I guess WE will have to man the polls
  • Katherine Deep007 2012/08/24 15:15:50
    Katherine
    +2
    Just try slipping past Acorn and the New Black Panthers....... Bring your camera and some legal jargon.
  • Mark5610 2012/08/24 14:15:43
  • mikeeonly 2012/08/24 13:53:14
  • Willy mikeeonly 2012/08/24 14:40:47
    Willy
    The electoral vote is determined by the popular vote in each state. The candidate that got the popular vote, gets the electoral votes.
  • Heptarch Willy 2012/08/24 18:14:34
    Heptarch
    +2
    And Obama leads the popular vote in all but one of the swing states.
  • JL 2012/08/24 13:30:34
    Yes
    JL
    +6
    THE COMPUTER IS DAMN SURE SMARTER THAN THE POS PROGRESSIVES WE PRESENTLY HAVE RUNN, ER...RUINING THIS COUNTRY!
  • Kern 2012/08/24 13:27:52
    No
    Kern
    +5
    And the desperation by the conservatives grows. What's next, the story about the about the pug's who poop has correctly predicted not only the last 2 presidential elections bu the last 8 super bowls.

    I find it informative that the Republicans are so desperate for anyone to lead them they are putting their faith into a guy who other wise would be ridiculed for his religious beliefs, and racked over the coals because he's so secretive.
  • JL Kern 2012/08/24 13:33:01
    JL
    +5
    NICE....RELIGIOUS INTOLERANCE...
    SUPPORT FOR THE MOST SECRETIVE POTUS WE EVER HAD....
    AND, YOU PROUDLY DISPLAY THIS FOR ALL TO SEE...
  • Kern JL 2012/08/24 13:59:10
    Kern
    +4
    That's right, religious intolerance by making the Catholic church do something they were ALREADY doing. DePaul University, a CATHOLIC church already provides birth control for their female employees. Hmmm. is DePaul University a different kind of Catholic?

    And the most secretive POTUS ever? Really? What else do you need to know? Will his college grades show that he was a secret Muslim spy?

    He could have filmed every second of his entire life from birth to his election and you morons, yes, MORONS would still question him. There is nothing he could say, do, or show you simpletons that would ever change your mind.

    Facts are not your friend.
  • Willy Kern 2012/08/24 14:44:58
    Willy
    +5
    You know nothing about obummer and yet you support him, not too bright.
  • Kern Willy 2012/08/24 14:53:03
    Kern
    +4
    I know about Obama than you know about willard. Not too bright are you. You support a guy who has changed every position he holds several times and will say anything to anyone to get elected. He signed into law a ban on assault rifles and you still support him. He left Massachusetts with 2 billion dollars more in debt. He took them from 37 in the nation in job creation to 47th in the nation.

    He hides in money in foreign countries so he doesn't have to pay for roads, our military, and all of the amenities this country has to offer you, in your infinite ignorance stand back and applaud him.

    Yeah, I'm the one that's not too bright. LOL, keep this up because it way to easy for me to show you how stupid your really are.
  • Rob Kern 2012/08/24 16:30:06
    Rob
    +3
    OK Kern.
    Obviously we're all stupid and just haven't been paying attention, like you. Perhaps you can enlighten us all on the following things we'd all like to know about Barack Obama..since he's such an open book:

    What's his real relationship with anti-semites and Israel haters like Rashid Khalidi, Khalid al-Mansour, Bernadine Dohrn, Edward Said, Bill Ayers, Maliki Shabazz, Jeremiah Wright and Herbert Mohammed?

    Why was Barack Obama a prominent organizer and participant in the Nation of Islam's Million Man March, one of the worst public hate fests in America? And what is his relationship with Louis Farrakhan? For that matter, what about his long time relationship with the NOI and the Black Panthers?

    Can you tell us all why Obama's campaign disabled the default VISA identification software on his campaign website, allowing campaign donations to be submitted under aliases and fake addresses in both 2008 and this election?

    http://joshuapundit.blogspot....

    What's on Obama's college transcripts and why won't he release them?

    What's the relationship between jailed Obama's 'partner' , jailed financier Tony Rezco, and Saddam Hussein's 'Oil For Food' bagman Nadhni Auchi? Especially when it comes to campaign contributions and contracts from the City of Chicago to build housing projects tha...







    OK Kern.
    Obviously we're all stupid and just haven't been paying attention, like you. Perhaps you can enlighten us all on the following things we'd all like to know about Barack Obama..since he's such an open book:

    What's his real relationship with anti-semites and Israel haters like Rashid Khalidi, Khalid al-Mansour, Bernadine Dohrn, Edward Said, Bill Ayers, Maliki Shabazz, Jeremiah Wright and Herbert Mohammed?

    Why was Barack Obama a prominent organizer and participant in the Nation of Islam's Million Man March, one of the worst public hate fests in America? And what is his relationship with Louis Farrakhan? For that matter, what about his long time relationship with the NOI and the Black Panthers?

    Can you tell us all why Obama's campaign disabled the default VISA identification software on his campaign website, allowing campaign donations to be submitted under aliases and fake addresses in both 2008 and this election?

    http://joshuapundit.blogspot....

    What's on Obama's college transcripts and why won't he release them?

    What's the relationship between jailed Obama's 'partner' , jailed financier Tony Rezco, and Saddam Hussein's 'Oil For Food' bagman Nadhni Auchi? Especially when it comes to campaign contributions and contracts from the City of Chicago to build housing projects that later turned out to be substandard and falling apart?

    http://joshuapundit.blogspot....

    Can you tell me exactly why Michelle Obama's law license was revoked by the Illinois bar, and what connection, if any, there was between President Obama obtaining an earmark of over $1 million for University Of Chicago Hospital and the employment of Mrs Obama as 'vice president of community relations' at an exorbitant salary in what essentially was a no show job?

    http://joshuapundit.blogspot....

    There's lots more I can mention, but here's a chance for you to show us exactly what we'd all like to know about President Obama and somehow missed. I included a few links to show you I already know some of the answers, even if the Obama Administration's media lackeys have worked very hard to make sure the general public knows nothing about this stuff.
    (more)
  • Kern Rob 2012/08/24 17:03:50
    Kern
    +3
    You can make up and believe anything you want. It is impossible for me or anyone to keep up with the stupidity of conservatives.

    You're very stupid assumption is that in 1995 President Obama held such a high place in the nation of Islam that he organized the entire event. Only a simpleton with a wanting need to hate would take those lies without question. I can believe that he marched in that day and probably, being community organizer helped other go to the march, but I highly doubt he helped Louis Farrekan organize the entire event. Why are you so easily lead around by the the nose like that?

    The Khalidi was started by McCain. President Obama's children and Khalidi's children attended the same school. Khalidi also sponsored a fund raiser for him in 2000 because they both taught at the university of Chicago. I guess their best friends, right? Tell me, are you holding the members of your party to the same standard?

    http://www.factcheck.org/2008...

    "McCain hasn’t always been so critical of Khalidi. Since 1993, the GOP candidate has chaired the board of the International Republican Institute, a group that conducts democracy-building activities abroad and is funded by the government and private (mostly corporate) donations. Under McCain’s leadership, the IRI distributed at least on...















    You can make up and believe anything you want. It is impossible for me or anyone to keep up with the stupidity of conservatives.

    You're very stupid assumption is that in 1995 President Obama held such a high place in the nation of Islam that he organized the entire event. Only a simpleton with a wanting need to hate would take those lies without question. I can believe that he marched in that day and probably, being community organizer helped other go to the march, but I highly doubt he helped Louis Farrekan organize the entire event. Why are you so easily lead around by the the nose like that?

    The Khalidi was started by McCain. President Obama's children and Khalidi's children attended the same school. Khalidi also sponsored a fund raiser for him in 2000 because they both taught at the university of Chicago. I guess their best friends, right? Tell me, are you holding the members of your party to the same standard?

    http://www.factcheck.org/2008...

    "McCain hasn’t always been so critical of Khalidi. Since 1993, the GOP candidate has chaired the board of the International Republican Institute, a group that conducts democracy-building activities abroad and is funded by the government and private (mostly corporate) donations. Under McCain’s leadership, the IRI distributed at least one grant, for $448,873 in 1998, to a group Khalidi helped start, the Center for Palestine Research and Studies, according to the IRI’s Form 990."

    Can you give me some other source besides a blog from a crazy right winger?

    Michelle Obama's law license WAS NOT revoked you willfully ignorant person. Why do you believe everything you hear without questioning it?

    Read and learn.

    http://www.snopes.com/politic...

    Tell Romney to release his tax records. I think that tax records show more about what someone believes than college grades, don't you? Oh, wait, you believe that President Obama didn't actually go to school. It's a giant conspiracy being pulled off by the Democrats, all of the colleges and schools President Obama attended and most of the country. How delusional do you have to be to have that kind of thought stay in your head? You are ridiculous.

    All of these questions have been answer over and over and over and over and over again and again and again.

    No matter you receive as evidence, you will never be satisfied. He showed his birth certificate and it was immediately counted as fraudulent by the right wing proving that no matter what he puts out, you will never be satisfied.

    Where you born in this country? Can you prove it to the extent that you want the president to prove? No you can't because no matter what you provide I can come up with a question you will not be able to answer.
    (more)
  • HL Willy 2012/08/24 20:47:55
    HL
    +1
    Great show of intelligence. Sarcassim
  • Fef Kern 2012/08/24 13:33:23
    Fef
    +5
    The left always show their intolerance off faith...
  • Kern Fef 2012/08/24 13:58:58
    Kern
    +3
    Fef, your ignorance knows no bounds. You should be proud.
  • Heptarch Fef 2012/08/24 18:16:06
    Heptarch
    +3
    I'm not a Liberal, but I'm all for being intolerant of anyone trying to force their religion on me.
  • Willy Kern 2012/08/24 14:42:27
    Willy
    +1
    He's not near as secretive as your hero, obummer.
  • Kern Willy 2012/08/24 14:57:29
    Kern
    +3
    Sure he's not secretive. He won't reveal his taxes because the Democrats will attack him on it. What a pussy. The real reason is that he doesn't want the country to know that he uses every tax loophole he can, tax loopholes you don't have access to.

    Tell genius, if you can only put $6,000 a year into an IRA, how does willard accumulate over $100,000,000 dollars in an IRA. It would take you over 16,000 years to put that kind of money into an IRA. How old is willard?
  • JL Kern 2012/08/24 15:20:28
    JL
    +3
    I JUST LOVE HOW PROUD YOU ARE TO BE A FOOL....
  • Kern JL 2012/08/24 15:56:05
    Kern
    +3
    I think you're caps lock key is on. You might want to check that.
  • JL Kern 2012/08/24 16:02:48
    JL
    HEY, A RAVE FOR THAT..YOU CAN REALIZE SOMETHING...
  • Kern JL 2012/08/24 16:31:56
    Kern
    +2
    Nice juvenile attempt at a backhand compliment.
  • JL Kern 2012/08/24 16:39:13
    JL
    +1
    TRYING TO KEEP IT ON A LEVEL FOR YOUR COMPREHENSION...
  • Kern JL 2012/08/24 17:04:23 (edited)
    Kern
    +2
    Back to grade school. I"m rubber you're glue......
  • JL Kern 2012/08/24 17:22:00
    JL
    I'VE GROWN VERY TIRED OF YOU...WE ARE DONE.
  • Kern JL 2012/08/24 17:27:40
    Kern
    +3
    OK, have a good weekend.
  • Kern JL 2012/08/24 17:28:16
    Kern
    +3
    OK, have a good and safe weekend.
  • JL Kern 2012/08/24 19:05:02
    JL
    +1
    WOW...AND YOU, AS WELL...
  • Rob Kern 2012/08/24 16:04:08
    Rob
    +4
    You have the gall to call Romney secretive? As opposed to Obama?

    BTW, I've read the study, and it's a detailed forecast based on economic data like unemployment rates and per capita income broken down by state. And it was done by two well known and respected political scientists at the U of Colorado who are both registered Dems.

    Take your hate, divisiveness and religious bigotry back to Chicago,Kern. And Take Obama with you.
  • Kern Rob 2012/08/24 16:27:37
    Kern
    +3
    Does the study take into account that willard has insulted minorities (blacks and Latinos), women, the working poor, and most recently tea baggers?

    I'm the one that is full hate when willard and the retard are the people that want to treat women as second class citizens? Do think women are OK with a two guys who want to force them to have the baby of their rapist?

    Keep trying to project your hate and bigotry onto me if it makes you feel better.
  • JL Kern 2012/08/24 16:40:49
    JL
    +1
    YOUR PROJECTION IS COMING UP A VAIN ATTEMPT...THE MORE YOU SHARE, THE MORE WE LAUGH...
  • WO Kern 2012/09/06 04:47:26
    WO
    +2
    Mitt Romney is secretive? Who has hidden their entire life story and composed a fake one for us? He goes by Barack Obama.
    BTW, it's NOT illegal to have money in foreign banks. Romney IS very wealthy and has money in many legal places including the US. The fact that it shows on his tax return proves he's NOT hiding money.
  • Kern WO 2012/09/06 16:37:45
    Kern
    Dear Birther,

    You need a life and a lot more education. I am sorry that no amount of evidence will ever convince you that our standing president is a citizen of this country. It is a serious mental flaw you are subjected to and maybe one that will never be cured. However, even someone with your very limited mental capacity can understand that when someone like Willard is unwilling to do what most other presidential candidates have done (his father being gold standard in this action) reveal his tax returns, he is obviously hiding something, Even his excuse, "they will use them to attack me" is proof that he hiding something. If he is unwilling to face the opposition in this country, how are we to expect him to face the opposition from foreign leaders?

    Maybe one day they will come up with a cure for Birtherism. Until then, I will pity your existence and hope that maybe your immune system will eventually defeat this serious problem with which you are afflicted.

    Good day and take care.
  • Peggy 2012/08/24 13:19:01
    Yes
    Peggy
    +10
    Given the correct information a computer can formulate an accurate "prediction" based on mathematical equations. However, the question remains did the computer get the correct information. I hope so.
  • thefatguy 2012/08/24 12:45:58
    Yes
    thefatguy
    +3
    Anyone or anything can "forecast" an election. But, it doesn't make it true. Meteorologists forecast the weather all the time. They're not always right.
  • Willy thefatguy 2012/08/24 14:46:10
    Willy
    +4
    But this computer has always been right.
  • thefatguy Willy 2012/08/24 15:06:58
    thefatguy
    +3
    How will it account for the voter fraud Obie's team will surely engage in?

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