University of Colorado Analysis Predicts Romney Victory: Can Computer Forecast 2012 Election?

Fef 2012/08/24 19:00:00
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University of Colorado political science professors have correctly predicted the past eight presidential elections since 1980 using a forecasting model. Their model shows Mitt Romney defeating the incumbent president mostly due to the economy. Obama captures only 218 electoral votes -- well shy of the required 270 to win the presidency. The model also shows Romney winning the popular vote by nearly 5 percent in a head-to-head election.

"Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble," said Bickers, also director of the CU in DC Internship Program. Bickers says the model relies heavily on the economy and unemployment. Bickers states, "the incumbency advantage enjoyed by President Obama, though statistically significant, is not great enough to offset high rates of unemployment currently experienced in many of the states."

"What is striking about our state-level economic indicator forecast is the expectation that Obama will lose almost all of the states currently considered as swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida," Bickers said.

The professor says the heavy influence of the economy and stewardship of the nation factors in more than the undemocratic influences: "It’s not about gaffes, political commercials or day-to-day campaign tactics. I find that heartening for our democracy."

Read More: http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/08/22/a...

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  • Proggy 2012/08/25 15:39:55
    A few things the computer model didn't factor is a man who hides his money offshore, doesn't pay taxes, suggests to big business to do the same, works at a company who has laid off thousands of workers and destroyed their pensions have no credibility whatsoever when it comes to fixing economy or lowering deficit.

    Other factors omitted would include a total opposition party that had a secret meeting the night of the president's inauguration and plotted to undermine the economy and the presidency for political gain. Not to mention the President is leading in virtually every swing state.

    When Romney is only garnering 23% of the Latino vote, 0% of the African American vote and 34% of the female vote. I'd really like to know what were the parameters programmed into the algorithms that made it come to it's conclusion.

    More over I'd trust the methodology of Allan Lichtman who have predicted every single election accurately Since Ford-Carter. Nate Silver also calls BS on the computer and it's "never before used" model.

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  • stacy clarkson 2012/10/27 02:44:08
    stacy clarkson
    The super computer simply use's economic data,to forecast how the people are doing ....County by county,city by city,state by state,to give a national forecast......A poor economy ,makes reelection near impossible...Its that simple...
  • Kenneth Vilcheck 2012/10/13 14:55:48
    Kenneth Vilcheck
    Voters don't care where Romney keeps his money when they can't make their own. TRUE unemployment and underemployment is 25%, they want jobs, not political rhetoric. This is what happens when you get an "Affirmative Action" candidate in the White House. AA doesn't work, and neither does this guy. Obama is George Soros' puppet.
  • jennafurmoore 2012/09/07 22:42:49
    People, not a computer will decide the vote in November. That said I can only hope people will use their heads and not be "sheepeled” into believing the main-stream media. Problems; 1) people who have an issue with a VOTER being required to show identification, we show ID to drive, drink, get a job, see an R rated movie...what is so darn offensive? 2) people who think the current health care plan is plausible, although health care and insurance are greatly in need of reform America can not afford the current plan that most refer to as “obamacare” there simply is not enough money, the plan is convoluted, and we only hear sound bites from the media. 3) people who believe the Democrat party are the party of the people...very few politicians, especially career politicians are anything but the 1% (wealthy, sheltered people, who are taking advantage of tax loopholes as they raise taxes, live in gated homes in neighborhoods that have no clue about the middle class.) Check out President Obama’s earnings the last 4 years, of the top 10 richest congress members, only 3 are Republicans. The middle class is suffering, the common man and woman are forgotten, our public schools are failing, are city infrastructures are failing= BIG government does NOT work.
  • shaun ogaard 2012/09/04 00:44:37
    shaun ogaard
    I read all the left responses, This process has been going on since 1980,He has a 87.5% accuracy. So even if romney loses wv or even colorado. that is not enough to swing the electoral votes. Obama has no chance.Romney is winning in more and more of the polls. Romney is now winning the independent vote. That alone is going to sink obama. I do have to ask one question to the libs? We as a country,are paying more out then we are bringing in. How do we survive this?With obama adding another 5t to the deficit from obamacare.
  • Tic-Toc 2012/08/29 23:14:39
    No, there are just to many vairables
  • Jon Bergen Tic-Toc 2012/08/30 22:41:09
    Jon Bergen
    From two weeks ago: London odds-makers predict Obama win. Two key quotes:

    '[B]ookies are giving President Obama about a 70 percent chance of winning. They peg Romney's chance at around one in three, or 35 percent'


    'although with almost three months remaining until election day, the company admits those odds could change—even dramatically.'

    While Europe's largest betting house, Paddy Power, is also calling the election for Obama, their spokesperson, however, offers these words of caution: 'However, a lot can happen between now and the election and we wouldn’t right off Romney’s chances just yet.'

    Voter ID laws recently put in place to hold down the turnout of Democratic voters will do just that and help Romney. Republican governors of swing states have already rigged those states for Romney 'wins.' There will be more than one Florida in 2012, where elections will be controversial, flawed, fraught with illegalities, and then logged in the Romney column.

    Rove is not only the Ghost of Election Past, he is also the Ghost of Election Future.

    illegalities logged romney column rove ghost election ghost election future

    The Fat Lady may have been handed her music, but right now is only clearing her throat.
  • Mr Bob 2012/08/28 18:37:13
    Mr Bob
    I sure as hell hope so!
  • cmdrbnd007 2012/08/28 17:40:30
    Hell, if a computer can figure out something much more complex like global warming then US elections should be a breeze.
  • MJ 2012/08/28 17:34:07
    I hope to hell not!
  • santa6642 2012/08/28 16:48:07
    As good as any soothsayer.
  • dick 2012/08/28 15:47:50
  • Rod 2012/08/28 11:43:06
    Hell, even I can predict the outcome of this election. Romney by a landslide.
  • Edie 2012/08/28 04:09:03
    This country cannot take another 4 yrs of Obama. I am certainly doing my part to send him back to Chicago with the rest of the mob.
  • red Edie 2012/08/28 08:20:22
    No thank you , we don't want him either. Send him back to Kenya with his illegal aunt and uncle. (I should speak for myself, I can't afford his neighborhood.)
  • hasher 2012/08/27 23:47:21
    they have been right every time since 1980 i think its going to happen.
  • Chris D 2012/08/27 22:11:02
    Chris D
    Yes, but they have a 50% chance of getting it wrong
  • SmittenKitten 2012/08/27 21:11:56
  • Tic-Toc Smitten... 2012/08/29 23:19:06 (edited)
    Have you read the NH papers as of late? They are not Happy campers there since his last Stump Jump.

    Telling them that he only needed another 4 years to fix things, but would not talk about his budget, or tell them how he was going to fix it...

    But he did say the Romney was trying to break the middle man and make the rich richer, and when asked a question of "How can the rich get richer is there is no middle man", he refused to answer. LOL
  • Smitten... Tic-Toc 2012/08/30 00:38:38
  • Rich Smitten... 2012/09/20 17:32:38
    September 19. 2012: Rasmussen Poll: Romney Takes Lead in New Hampshire

    What say you now ? http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfr...
  • Smitten... Rich 2012/09/20 18:59:56
  • Jon Bergen Smitten... 2012/08/30 22:02:03
    Jon Bergen
    But what about Voter ID laws hurriedly put in place to hold down turnout of Democratic voters (young, poor, minorities)?
  • Smitten... Jon Bergen 2012/08/30 23:19:16
  • Jon Bergen Smitten... 2012/08/31 03:42:14
    Jon Bergen
    Sadly, I am skeptical. I believe in a real election, where the popular vote is actually counted and certified, Obama is re-elected hands-down.

    But this won't be that kind of an election,

    My full comment is higher up on this page here.
  • Smitten... Jon Bergen 2012/08/31 05:33:56
  • Jon Bergen Smitten... 2012/09/02 06:58:03
    Jon Bergen
    Thank-you. I want to believe a fair(-ish) election has a chance of happening in November, and that the popular vote will be reflected in the outcome.

    You've given me some hope; I appreciate it.
  • MR. 2012/08/27 20:59:49 (edited)
    ENTER ALL THE DATA AND THE STATISTICS WILL SHOW YOU, THE PROVEN WINNER! *(ROMNEY/RYAN 2012') -"Decision 2012' couldn't be any easier, for this UNIVAC computer!"-
  • jamesturner 2012/08/27 18:37:55
    Must be the same university that helped nominate that '' IDIOT '' SPIT ROMNEY in the first place everyone I talk to say they did'nt and never would/so much for their credibility.
  • Broddy 2012/08/27 17:34:58 (edited)
    Yes i had an Atari 9000 when i was in my teens and you could program it with simple code one of the first things i learned was random number generator program, so it would be simple program the computer to give each candidate a 50/50 chance and hit enter.

    Or you could just flip a coin because both would be about as accurate as these damn predictions and polls.

    By every poll the race is a statistical dead heat, anyone for a game of pin the tail on the Politician?
  • Tom 2012/08/27 17:01:21 (edited)
    A computer program is written to draw logical inferences from the data it's given.

    There's nothing logical about Obama-mania.

    That tool will cruise to re-election on the utter stupidity and blind admiration of his sheeple.
  • intolerantrwj 2012/08/27 16:33:45
    ...... Y E S

    .......................... furthermore, if valid data is loaded, invalid votes would be Caught Red-Handed.
  • Ozymandias 2012/08/27 15:54:13
  • Tom Camfield 2012/08/27 15:42:30
    Tom Camfield
    obviously not if it picks Romney to win. Also, I'm tired of manufactured polls and such created as propaganda aimed at creating some sort of bandwagon effect.
  • Jon Bergen Tom Cam... 2012/08/30 22:03:41
    Jon Bergen
    Well said. There is a PR machine and buzz campaign continuously running to fire up support for Romney/Ryan here and in pretty much all other media right now.
  • chgo 2012/08/27 15:27:45
    I mean no. Only an idiot thinks Romney has a chance.
  • jamestu... chgo 2012/08/27 18:41:08
    That means all those dumb ass CONJOBSERVATIVES.
  • Shiny 2012/08/27 15:24:05
    This guy was Governor of my state he was an elitist prick then and he's an elitist prick now. Nothing is going to change that.
  • jamestu... Shiny 2012/08/27 18:45:49
    Now he's a better known elitist PRICK thats all. He better sign up for a good self defense course cause '' OBAMA '' is kicking his ass but good so far.
  • Edie jamestu... 2012/08/29 03:23:28
    Tonight when I watched the speech by Ann Romney that along with the other speeches there is no way we will see four more years of Obama.
  • Jon Bergen Edie 2012/08/30 22:06:43
    Jon Bergen
    You make a valid point: She is much more relatable and charismatic than many in her party. Perhaps she should have been nominated instead? She would have had no past political record of her own to worry about as a liability and could have spent 80% of her time on the campaign trail hammering away at her opponent, rather than worrying about skeletons toppling out of closets.

    She would have been a better choice.
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