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The polls are saying everything from "dead heat" to "Obama has a 5-point lead." How much stock do you put in pre-election polls?

KoAm 2012/09/19 06:23:06
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  • NYCbrit 2012/09/19 07:01:35
    I think these polls are designed to get the results the pollsters want. They...
    NYCbrit
    +3
    I honestly don't remember what they are saying from one time to the next.

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  • Joe61 2012/09/21 09:13:28 (edited)
    I cast my own vote regardless of what the polls say.
    Joe61
    You cannot predict a result of any poll...There is so much jiggery pokkery going on and everybody has a different angle.....Polls are totally screwed from the meaning of the word truth, as each Party pay pollsters to ensure the result thay want to see and here. Polls are simply a CONFIDENCE TRICK.
  • Ken 2012/09/21 01:19:52
    I think these polls are designed to get the results the pollsters want. They...
    Ken
    and it will not work for them this time.
  • Stryder 2012/09/20 21:49:39
    I think these polls are designed to get the results the pollsters want. They...
    Stryder
    +1
    There's only ONE poll I give any credence to. And that's Rasmussen. Proven to be the most accurate over the last 4 Presidential elections.
  • Dee 2012/09/20 21:40:52
    I cast my own vote regardless of what the polls say.
    Dee
    I have gotten a few calls and political e-mails asking for support. I tell the Obama folks what they want to hear and the Romney folks what they want to hear. It's my own little way of skewing the poll results.
  • TuringsChild 2012/09/20 21:38:46
    I think these polls are designed to get the results the pollsters want. They...
    TuringsChild
    +1
    It's been done before.
  • Aqua Surf BTO-t-BCRA-F 2012/09/20 21:34:20
    I think these polls are designed to get the results the pollsters want. They...
    Aqua Surf BTO-t-BCRA-F
    +1
    The only pollsters who dared tell the truth, Gallup, got sued by Eric WithHolders' DOJ because it showed ROMNEY IN THE LEAD. This must be what waking up in Nazi Germany felt like just during the Reichstag fire. If you don't go along with the propaganda, you'll be sorry.....
  • DuncanONeil 2012/09/19 14:57:05
    I think these polls are designed to get the results the pollsters want. They...
    DuncanONeil
    +1
    Especially the specifics of the polls show that the groups is biased toward Demoncrats, in these cases.
  • Superman 2012/09/19 14:17:04
    I cast my own vote regardless of what the polls say.
    Superman
    I've been reading a lot about the polling this year recently, not just the data itself but some rumored behind the scenes stuff.

    Generally, I've always followed the RCP averages that take into account both conservative and liberal poll data as well as independent sources. I think that usually gives a good picture.

    However, I read something the other day that interested me. Two things actually. Once source indicated that a lot of polling data is being skewed. Typiaclly you have a roughly 30/30/30 poll. Thats evenly breaking down your surveys between liberals/conservatives/indepe... However, it sounds like a number of sources are skewing heavy on liberal samples and only using 6 percent to 10 percent of independent samples. Thats going to skew any poll.

    The other thing I read is about actually modeling. Pretty much every source, even Rasmussen, is using 2008 modeling. Meaning that the demographic turnout that occured in 2008 is a baseline for the poll modeling. 2008 was a historic year. There are a lot of questions if minorities and college students are going to turnout anywhere near where they did in 2008. For the polling data to be accurate that has to happen and a lot of pundits don't see that happening. That historic turnout universally favored Obama, which m...



    I've been reading a lot about the polling this year recently, not just the data itself but some rumored behind the scenes stuff.

    Generally, I've always followed the RCP averages that take into account both conservative and liberal poll data as well as independent sources. I think that usually gives a good picture.

    However, I read something the other day that interested me. Two things actually. Once source indicated that a lot of polling data is being skewed. Typiaclly you have a roughly 30/30/30 poll. Thats evenly breaking down your surveys between liberals/conservatives/indepe... However, it sounds like a number of sources are skewing heavy on liberal samples and only using 6 percent to 10 percent of independent samples. Thats going to skew any poll.

    The other thing I read is about actually modeling. Pretty much every source, even Rasmussen, is using 2008 modeling. Meaning that the demographic turnout that occured in 2008 is a baseline for the poll modeling. 2008 was a historic year. There are a lot of questions if minorities and college students are going to turnout anywhere near where they did in 2008. For the polling data to be accurate that has to happen and a lot of pundits don't see that happening. That historic turnout universally favored Obama, which means that modeling based on 2008 will skew in that direction.

    When you see a 3 point lead for Obama, it likely means the contest is a tie. If its a point in Obamas direction or a tie it likely means a slight Romney lead.

    But when you take into account the first piece of information, about whos being sampled and how thats getting skewed, and you look at how accurate Rasmussen has been as far as presidential elections are concerned its Rasmussen that you need to look at.
    (more)
  • BlackwinterG36C 2012/09/19 09:29:42
    I cast my own vote regardless of what the polls say.
    BlackwinterG36C
    +1
    Polls never affect my vote. If there is a correlation of the polls than the outcome is possible to predict.
  • maquignon 2012/09/19 08:59:48
    I cast my own vote regardless of what the polls say.
    maquignon
    +1
    There are two polls that have been consistently accurate: Rasmussen and Gallop. Those are the only two that I put any confidence in. They have a long history of accuracy.
  • Transquesta 2012/09/19 07:09:21
    I think these polls are designed to get the results the pollsters want. They...
    Transquesta
    +2
    I place *zero* faith in polls. The only one that counts is the one which takes place in November, and only then if you believe there's a pubic hair's worth of difference between the two corporatist sock puppets.
  • NYCbrit 2012/09/19 07:01:35
    I think these polls are designed to get the results the pollsters want. They...
    NYCbrit
    +3
    I honestly don't remember what they are saying from one time to the next.
  • John_Boy1787 2012/09/19 06:57:24 (edited)
    I cast my own vote regardless of what the polls say.
    John_Boy1787
    +1
    2 years ago they said the Republicans would not take the House...
  • Bali John_Bo... 2012/09/19 08:43:50
    Bali
    +1
    it sure did, and wham.

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