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The Gov. Gary Johnson factor: "Poll after poll shows lackluster enthusiasm for Obama and Romney, along with continuing voter disgust with Washington and most national institutions..." - Politico

Adakin Valorem~PWCM~JLA 2012/07/08 13:56:01


By MAGGIE HABERMAN and ALEXANDER BURNS | 7/8/12 7:05 AM EDT


Former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson’s chances of becoming president haven’t changed much over the course of the 2012 cycle, during which he ran for the Republican presidential nomination, participated in two national debates, dropped out of the primaries and reentered the race as the Libertarian Party nominee.


Throughout, his odds of national victory have held steady around zero.



But as the presidential raeads into the summer, with President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney locked in a tight contest and voters’ distaste for both major-party candidates running high, political operatives have started pondering a different question: Could Johnson matter, even on the election’s margins?


(Also on POLITICO: Gary Johnson's magic number)


Poll after poll shows lackluster enthusiasm for Obama and Romney, along with continuing voter disgust with Washington and most national institutions. That probably isn’t enough to push even a single electoral vote into Johnson’s camp. It could, however, put just enough ballots in Johnson’s column — in a kind of disaffected,“throw-the-bums-out” way — to affect the outcome in a handful of states.


Early polling has shown Johnson taking more from Romney, although pollsters say he’s peeling off votes from Obama as well. Johnson has said he expects to be on the ballot in all 50 states.


If there’s an opportunity for Johnson to make a difference anywhere, it’s likely in Mountain states such as his native New Mexico, and Colorado and Nevada, where he could shave votes from the major-party candidates. In a close race that neither side thinks will be an electoral landslide, Johnson could make a real difference — especially with Ron Paul’s libertarian-leaning backers now up for grabs.


“The people who are saying they’re going vote for Johnson right now generally are people who dislike both Obama and Romney,” said Tom Jensen, of the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, which has found Johnson polling between 5 percent and 10 percent in some states.


Those numbers will eventually fall back to earth, Jensen predicted: “I’m just relying on history on that front — unless a third-party candidate’s really well-funded and getting visibility similar to the others that they’re facing [they fade]. Most of these people who are saying they’re voting for Gary Johnson right now will end up voting for Romney.”


Johnson doesn’t see himself as a receptacle for protest votes.


“I’d like to think it’s because of what I’m saying,” the former governor told POLITICO in an interview, referring to polls showing him getting well above 5 percent in some swing states.


“It’s not so much the discontent, although that may be a factor,” he added, invoking Paul’s own declaration when the Texas congressman ended his active campaigning that he still had a following who embraces his small government, libertarian message.


Nearly every cycle, there’s speculation that a third-party candidate could catch fire, or simply gain enough traction to affect the top-line results. Nearly always, that candidate fades before the general election takes place. The most famous third-party candidate in recent presidential history is Ross Perot, who was polling at 39 percent in the summer of 1992, ultimately collecting just short of 19 percent of the national vote and getting no electoral college votes.


(Also on POLITICO: Full 2012 election coverage)


“At the end of the day, most people don’t want to throw away their votes,” said Republican pollster Whit Ayres.


Yet the pervasive dislike of the two major 2012 hopefuls could linger and be exploited in places where Johnson is well known.


“I really think Gary Johnson takes New Mexico off the table for Mitt Romney,” said Jill Hanauer, president of the Democratic firm Project New America, which polls Western states.




Read the rest here: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0612/77754.html#ixzz202Q...


Read More: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0612/77754.ht...

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  • DJL 2012/07/08 21:46:47
    DJL
    Why do you think the ultra-liberal politico puts out stories like these? They know that they help Obama by having idiots vote third party which is just as stupid as voting for Obama.
  • Adakin ... DJL 2012/07/09 02:12:14
    Adakin Valorem~PWCM~JLA
    Danny, there are tons of Democrats that have become disenchanted with their Messiah and are 'jumping ship' from supporting their failed experiment in Keynesian socialism.

    But those same die-hard Democrats absolutely will not vote for a Republican.

    These are the folks that if they vote at all, they are starting to notice Gary Johnson's platform and finding it more acceptable that what Mitt has to offer. All that has to be done is compare the records of the three men, as administrators of their respective experiences. Two governors and one "OJT" POTUS...

    In the past, the LP candidates have taken voters from both sides of the political spectrum with around 60% GOP and 40% Dems... In Barry's case, he is perfectly capable of alienating enough of his own supporters to not have to blame the LP candidate for taking them.
  • Adakin ... DJL 2012/07/09 02:18:44 (edited)
    Adakin Valorem~PWCM~JLA
    "Why do you think the ultra-liberal politico puts out stories like these?"

    Danny, its not just Politico. Also covering the Johnson campaign is CBS News, and USA-Today. Both have been regularly featuring articles on him as they note the growing "buyers remorse" from the GOP and disillusion from Barry's base. Heck even his 'bullit proof' core of support from African Americans is down to around 80% from the 97% he garnered from them in 2008.

    Duh Bro Gotta Go
  • Grabitz 2012/07/08 14:21:33
    Grabitz
    +1
    Hmm , maybe the people are waking up .
  • Waldorf 2012/07/08 14:21:08 (edited)
    Waldorf
    At this point in the cycle, voters weren't too sure of a certain Ronald Reagan either, yet today he enjoys a larger-than-life reputation. A desperate opting for a Gary Johnson is not necessarily based on a real dilemma.
  • Adakin ... Waldorf 2012/07/08 16:44:51
    Adakin Valorem~PWCM~JLA
    Wally, there's really no 'desperation'... Not even the folks in the Johnson camp thinks that he has a prayer of actually WINNING the WH. My support of Johnson is based on the issues he advocates ("FairTax" bill, SS reform, free market heathcare, i.e. Medical Savings Accts, etc).

    Though out our nation's history, MAJOR issues and policy changes were always proposed by obscure third party advocates. When that issue or policy (i.e. abolition of slavery, women’s suffrage, civil rights, etc) started gleaning votes away from the two major parties, the "majors" quickly usurped these issues and adopted them as their own.

    I don't care who is in the driver's seat. I'm more concerned as to the actual destination they will take us while the major party candidates are only wanting to "drive"...

    The two major parties are not in business to change anything or actually "solve" problems... after all, they need a good "crisis" every so often so as to usurp more freedom and liberty from the general population as they expand their powerbase of gov't control. People with actual solutions (Gary Johnson, Herman Cain, Ron Paul, etc) are threats to the growth of gov't and expansion of the "Demo-Republicrat" domination and control over the "Dumb-Masses" that keep electing them.

    When you are in t...

    Wally, there's really no 'desperation'... Not even the folks in the Johnson camp thinks that he has a prayer of actually WINNING the WH. My support of Johnson is based on the issues he advocates ("FairTax" bill, SS reform, free market heathcare, i.e. Medical Savings Accts, etc).

    Though out our nation's history, MAJOR issues and policy changes were always proposed by obscure third party advocates. When that issue or policy (i.e. abolition of slavery, women’s suffrage, civil rights, etc) started gleaning votes away from the two major parties, the "majors" quickly usurped these issues and adopted them as their own.

    I don't care who is in the driver's seat. I'm more concerned as to the actual destination they will take us while the major party candidates are only wanting to "drive"...

    The two major parties are not in business to change anything or actually "solve" problems... after all, they need a good "crisis" every so often so as to usurp more freedom and liberty from the general population as they expand their powerbase of gov't control. People with actual solutions (Gary Johnson, Herman Cain, Ron Paul, etc) are threats to the growth of gov't and expansion of the "Demo-Republicrat" domination and control over the "Dumb-Masses" that keep electing them.

    When you are in the business of handing out 'free' band-aids and aspirin, it's against your best interest to allow someone to actually CURE the disease.

    fairtax fairtax
    (more)
  • Waldorf Adakin ... 2012/07/08 19:11:47
    Waldorf
    +1
    There is certainly desperation on the part of people trying to avoid voting for either Obama or Romney, wasting their votes. Johnson is just the latest name on a stick.
  • *K'eim*... Waldorf 2012/07/09 02:30:35
    *K'eim*h3reg' *Peh2u *Meg'
    You got one thing right. A vote for Obama or Romney is a wasted vote.
  • Adakin Valorem~PWCM~JLA 2012/07/08 14:02:30
    Adakin Valorem~PWCM~JLA
    “I really think Gary Johnson takes New Mexico off the table for Mitt Romney,” said Jill Hanauer, president of the Democratic firm Project New America, which polls Western states."

    Interesting statement...

    Especially when you consider that it appears that Romney won't even carry his OWN home state of Massachusetts!

    http://www.garyjohnson2012.co...

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