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Stimulus Package gets an F from CBO

Jackie G - Poker Playing Patriot 2012/02/17 16:57:07
Chart of the Day: CBO report an F on the 2009 stimulus package

POSTED AT 9:50 AM ON FEBRUARY 17, 2012 BY ED MORRISSEY


Today we, er, celebrate the third anniversary of the 2009 stimulus package’s presidential signature. When Barack Obama applied his signature, he promised that the $800 billion authorized to his administration by a Democratic Congress would allow him to keep unemployment under 8% and revamp the American economy for long-term prosperity and solid economic growth. Yesterday, in an early anniversary present, the CBO scored the performance of the stimulus and the Obama administration on that very metric, and the first paragraph delivers the verdict clearly, emphases mine:

The rate of unemployment in the United States has exceeded 8 percent since February 2009, making the past three years the longest stretch of high unemployment in this country since the Great Depression. Moreover, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that the unemployment rate will remain above 8 percent until 2014. The official unemployment rate excludes those individuals who would like to work but have not searched for a job in the past four weeks as well as those who are working part-time but would prefer full-time work; if those people were counted among the unemployed, the unemployment rate in January 2012 would have been about 15 percent. Compounding the problem of high unemployment,the share of unemployed people looking for work for more than six months—referred to as the long-term unemployed—topped 40 percent in December 2009 for the first time since 1948, when such data began to be collected; it has remained above that level ever since.

Frankly, there isn’t much to be added to this score. It’s a good, solid F- for the stimulus and the President who wasted $800 billion on it, three years after insisting that his gimmicky approach to economics would create a modern economy that would generate prosperity for all. But just in case you need it, the CBO includes this very helpful chart on unemployment at the beginning of the report:cbo

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  • ProudProgressive 2012/02/21 22:08:14 (edited)
    ProudProgressive
    Too many inaccuracies here to list them all, but coming from Ed Morrissey it's not unexpected.

    For one thing, the President did NOT promise when he signed the stimulus bill that it would keep unemployment down to 8%. That statement was made in the early stages of discussing a possible stimulus and was based on two false assumptions - one, that the stimulus would be $1.3 trillion dollars, not the 790 billion the Republicans forced it down to. And two, that the drop in GDP during Bush's last quarter was around 4% when in reality it was over 8% down. Since the problems were worse than anyone knew, and the funds to deal with it wound up being significantly less than were needed, it's not surprising that that early estimate didn't come to pass.

    And of greater significance - the paragraph that Morrissey quotes doesn't say a word about the stimulus' actual effect. It reports on conditions. It makes no judgment on causes. In reality, the stimulus has added well over 3 million American jobs so far, and is directly responsible for an almost two percent drop in the overall unemployment rate since the funds began to be distributed. Right now unemployment is at 8.3%, admittedly a lot higher than anyone other than a Congressional Republican would like it to be. But without the stimulus,...



    Too many inaccuracies here to list them all, but coming from Ed Morrissey it's not unexpected.

    For one thing, the President did NOT promise when he signed the stimulus bill that it would keep unemployment down to 8%. That statement was made in the early stages of discussing a possible stimulus and was based on two false assumptions - one, that the stimulus would be $1.3 trillion dollars, not the 790 billion the Republicans forced it down to. And two, that the drop in GDP during Bush's last quarter was around 4% when in reality it was over 8% down. Since the problems were worse than anyone knew, and the funds to deal with it wound up being significantly less than were needed, it's not surprising that that early estimate didn't come to pass.

    And of greater significance - the paragraph that Morrissey quotes doesn't say a word about the stimulus' actual effect. It reports on conditions. It makes no judgment on causes. In reality, the stimulus has added well over 3 million American jobs so far, and is directly responsible for an almost two percent drop in the overall unemployment rate since the funds began to be distributed. Right now unemployment is at 8.3%, admittedly a lot higher than anyone other than a Congressional Republican would like it to be. But without the stimulus, it's likely that the current rate would be well over 10% now.

    As your own chart shows, unemployment shot up beginning in 2007 as a result of the failed Bush economic policies. It started its downturn in late 2009, when the stimulus began to be implemented, and it's gone down ever since.

    PS - Do you have a link to the actual report? The one in your first paragraph doesn't work.
    (more)
  • Jackie ... ProudPr... 2012/02/21 22:23:10
    Jackie G - Poker Playing Patriot
    My dear he did indeed - his former head (the smiling plump red headed lady) said it on national television - her words were "this administration......" That you should be able to find on Youtube.

    The 3 million jobs are the magic mystery number called saved added to those created. The real unemployment is far past 8.3 and you know it. Now do I accept the standard reported number, of course, however, the other equally reported numbers that give the entire view are horrifying. What we do not know and cannot prove is what they would have been without the stimulus. CBO in 2009, said that the recession would be ending in fall of 2009 if the stimulus was not passed but would be extended a longer period of time if passed (I paraphrase)

    I will try to recapture the link - dang must have unlinked or whatever the heck happens to them.

    Thanks for responding
  • ProudPr... Jackie ... 2012/02/21 22:27:11
    ProudProgressive
    I invite you to review the record regarding the 8% "promise" for yourself:

    http://www.politifact.com/ohi...
  • Jackie ... ProudPr... 2012/02/21 23:02:23
    Jackie G - Poker Playing Patriot
    Nope, I will believe what the lady said with words - Oh I remembered her name -- Christine Romer.
  • ProudPr... Jackie ... 2012/02/21 23:25:45
    ProudProgressive
    +1
    Oh I agree that Romer made the statement. But the statement was made in a report released on January 9, 2009, before the details of the actual legislation were worked out and clearly long before President Obama "applied his signature", which as this article confirms was on February 17, 2009. Also, it was not President Obama who made the statement.
  • Jackie ... ProudPr... 2012/02/21 23:33:17
    Jackie G - Poker Playing Patriot
    Okay we are splitting hairs here - she made the statement and represented Obama - apparently they believed it or it would not have left her mouth.

    LOL, bet we could argue over angel on pin heads
  • Jackie ... Jackie ... 2012/02/21 22:30:03
    Jackie G - Poker Playing Patriot
    It is in that CBO site somewhere - they moved it so page does not come up - I will look for it as I have some time. Here are a couple of other links you might like to read.

    http://www.cbo.gov/publicatio...

    http://www.cbo.gov/publicatio...
  • ProudPr... Jackie ... 2012/02/21 23:31:49
    ProudProgressive
    Thank you for the links.

    As for the first one, dated February 16, 2012, it points out that:

    What Factors Have Caused High Unemployment?

    "Many factors are responsible for the rise in unemployment in general and in long-term unemployment:

    Weak demand for goods and services, as a result of the recession and its aftermath, which results in weak demand for workers;
    Mismatches between would-be employers’ needs and the skills or location of the unemployed;
    Incentives for people to stay in the labor force and continue searching for work that result from extensions of unemployment insurance benefits; and
    The erosion of unemployed workers’ skills and the belief of some employers that people who have been unemployed for a long time would be low-quality workers (a phenomenon sometimes called stigma)."

    It does not mention the stimulus as a factor. It DOES mention weak demand, which can be addressed by putting more disposable funds in the hands of those who will spend it in the marketplace as opposed to those who will simply invest it in a fund. It also mentions inadequate (or "mismatched") skills, which can be addressed by increased funding for job training and education. Both of these factors are directly addressed by the stimulus.

    The second one, from September 2011, also does not even mention the stimulus as either a positive or a negative factor.
  • Jackie ... ProudPr... 2012/02/21 23:34:16
    Jackie G - Poker Playing Patriot
    I know it doesn't hence my statement to you - read before defending.
  • Lonnie 2012/02/18 07:54:50
    Lonnie
    +1
    What else did you expect?
  • Jackie ... Lonnie 2012/02/18 13:29:33
    Jackie G - Poker Playing Patriot
    Oh nothing, just confirmation of what intelligent voters already knew.
  • Jimbo 2012/02/17 19:36:37
    Jimbo
    In the conservative Wonderland that SHC rubes live in Ed Morrissey of propaganda site Hotair now works for the CBO. Keep making idiotic posts SHCs, I like to laugh at you.
  • Jackie ... Jimbo 2012/02/17 20:09:31
    Jackie G - Poker Playing Patriot
    Oh, so the CBO is lying ?? Right, hang in that delusional world. LOLOL
  • ProudPr... Jackie ... 2012/02/21 22:09:43
    ProudProgressive
    The quoted language has nothing to do with the stimulus.
  • Kane Fernau 2012/02/17 18:17:15
    Kane Fernau
    +1
    CBO: U.S. enduring the longest period of high unemployment since the Great Depression

    By ALEX M. PARKER
    February 16, 2012 RSS Feed Print
    After three years with unemployment topping 8 percent, the U.S. has seen the longest period of high unemployment since the Great Depression, the Congressional Budget Office noted in a report issued today.

    [Dems Tout GOP Payroll Tax Plan as Political Victory.]

    And, despite some recent good news on the economic front, the CBO is still predicting that unemployment will remain above 8 percent until 2014. The report also notes that, including those who haven't sought work in the past four weeks and those who are working part-time but seeking full-time employment, the unemployment rate would be 15 percent.
  • Jackie ... Kane Fe... 2012/02/17 18:58:30
    Jackie G - Poker Playing Patriot
    +1
    good post
  • maggiemay 2012/02/17 17:35:02
    maggiemay
    +1
    Remember those shovel ready jobs Obama bragged about? Well I found one! obama
  • Jackie ... maggiemay 2012/02/17 18:59:03
    Jackie G - Poker Playing Patriot
    +1
    I still giggle over the guy who said his dog had created more shovel ready jobs than Obama
  • maggiemay Jackie ... 2012/02/17 19:22:11
    maggiemay
    +1
    Me Too:)
  • wicked soda boy 2012/02/17 17:14:09
    wicked soda boy
    +1
    I'd give it an F-U
  • Jackie ... wicked ... 2012/02/17 17:16:49
    Jackie G - Poker Playing Patriot
    LOL
  • Red_Horse 2012/02/17 17:06:32
  • Jackie ... Red_Horse 2012/02/17 17:09:42
    Jackie G - Poker Playing Patriot
    +1
    LOL succinct and correct!

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