Romney takes 14 point lead in Middle Class Voters

Birthpangs 2012/09/24 13:53:55
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In early August, with our Republican analysis of the POLITICO-George Washington University Battleground Poll, we wrote “… this election will remain close until the final weeks of the campaign. There will be ups and downs for both campaigns throughout the next 13 weeks, but the basic dynamics that are driving this electorate and framing this election remain well in place.” Two conventions, and tens of millions of campaign dollars later, we continue to hold that belief. While there have been dozens of polls released during the past six weeks that have had Mitt Romney up by as much as 4 points and Barack Obama up by as much 8 or 9, those variations have had more to do with sampling variations than with real movement in the campaign.

Yes, there have been gaffes on both sides that have been the focus of both the news media and opposing campaigns, but the dynamics that have been the real drivers of the campaign, the economy and deeply negative feelings about the direction of the country, have not changed. There have also been negative stories about the internal operations, messaging and strategy of both presidential campaigns. In August, leading into the Republican convention, there were multiple stories about the Obama campaign operation and internal fights about both message and strategic direction that led one to believe the wheels were coming off. Now it is the Romney campaign’s turn.

  • The past several weeks have been filled with news stories, editorials and columns heaping criticism on the tactics and strategy of the Romney campaign. Many of these opinion pieces even suggested that Romney’s only hope for winning is to make substantial changes to his campaign. Much of this analysis is based on the premise that Romney is out of touch and has not been making an affirmative case to middle-class voters. His comments at a private fundraiser in May were pointed to as an illustration that he could never identify with and win the support of many middle-class voters. We took a special look at middle-class voters, and middle-class families in particular, in this latest POLITICO-George Washington University Battleground Poll and found that not to be the case. In fact, on every measure it is Romney who is winning the battle for the support of middle-class families.

    Overall, Obama leads Romney by just 3 points on the ballot (50 percent to 47 percent) – which before we rounded up, is actually a 2.6 point lead and only up a half-a-percentage point from the 2.1 point lead for Obama in our last Battleground poll in early August. In our latest POLITICO-George Washington University Battleground Poll with middle-class families, which comprise about 54 percent of the total American electorate and usually split in their vote behavior between Republicans and Democrats, Romney holds a 14-point advantage (55 percent to 41 percent). Middle-class families are more inclined to believe the country is on the wrong track (34 percent right direction, 62 percent wrong track), are more likely to hold an unfavorable view of Obama (48 percent favorable, 51 percent unfavorable), and hold a more favorable view of Romney (51 percent favorable, 44 percent unfavorable) and Paul Ryan (46 percent favorable, 35 percent unfavorable) than the overall electorate. These middle-class families also hold a majority disapproval rating on the job Obama is doing as president (45 percent approve, 54 percent disapprove), and turn even more negative toward Obama on specific areas; the economy 56 percent disapprove; spending 61 percent disapprove; taxes, 53 percent disapprove; Medicare 48 percent disapprove; and even foreign policy 50 percent disapprove.

    (Also on POLITICO: Sheldon Adelson: Inside the mind of the mega-donor)

    All of this data make clear that Romney has won the strong support of middle-class families and is leading the president on an overwhelming majority of key measurements beyond just the ballot. In fact, when respondents were asked who, Obama or Romney, would best handle a variety of issues, Romney led on all but one including the economy (+9 percent), foreign policy (+3 percent), spending (+15 percent), taxes (+7 percent), Medicare (+2 percent), and jobs (+10 percent). Ironically, the one measurement Obama led Romney on was “standing up for the middle class” (+8 Obama), reinforcing that often the Democrats win the message war with the middle class, but not their hearts and souls.

    Looking at this presidential election overall, intensity among voters is high with Republicans, Democrats, and now independents, and is at levels more comparable with the final days of a presidential election than six weeks out from Election Day. In fact, fully 80 percent of voters now say that they are extremely likely to vote. Even with the past few weeks containing some of the toughest days of earned media for the Romney campaign, and perhaps as a surprise to Washington insiders, Romney continues to win Republicans (Romney by a net +87 percent) by the same margin Obama is winning with Democrats (Obama by a net +88 percent), and is still winning with independents (+2 percent). Romney has majority support with voters over the age of 45 (+7 percent), with men (+6 percent), with white women (+9 percent), and with married voters (+14 percent). In addition, Romney has solidified his base. Support among conservative voters exceeds 70 percent (73 percent), his support among very conservative voters exceeds 80 percent (83 percent), and his support among Republicans exceeds 90 percent (91 percent). Romney is also receiving a higher level of support among Hispanics (40 percent), which is driven by higher support from Hispanic men.

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    Top Opinion

    • millermedia 2012/09/24 13:58:54
      No surprise to me. My team has been h=going house to house with lots of hand...
      I hope that we all can help turn at least one liberal voter each to reconsider to not vote for Obama.

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    • Todayisgoingtobegreat 2012/09/27 14:20:42
      I have not done that.
    • RJeffreySavlov 2012/09/27 01:26:03
      No surprise. They are the ones who are hurting the most because of Obama
    • ☆astac☆~PWCM 2012/09/27 01:21:24
      Being that obama and the democrats gave the middle class the largest tax increase in history via obamacare, this does not surprise me at all. And look at the price increases on everything over the past 4 years, all because of obama and the democrats, again it does not surprise me at all.
    • Birthpangs ☆astac☆... 2012/09/27 18:38:16
    • ManBearPig 2012/09/24 17:36:43
      No surprise to me. My team has been h=going house to house with lots of hand...
      the fact that the White House has to come out and defend any statement that Obama makes vs. the Romney campaign taking his statements to heart on what he meant and continuing to drudge forward should tell you how embarrassing this administration is
    • Jeff Smith 2012/09/24 15:44:48
    • Birthpangs Jeff Smith 2012/09/24 16:04:05 (edited)
    • Jeff Smith Birthpangs 2012/09/24 22:38:42
      Jeff Smith
      I do I was just being my normal sarcastic smart ass self Excuse Me!!
    • Dogzebra~PWCM~JLA 2012/09/24 14:52:54
      I don't give much credence to political polls. Besides, the dead never answer their phones for pollsters, but they always seem to vote at the last minute.
    • Don 2012/09/24 14:42:41
      No surprise to me. My team has been h=going house to house with lots of hand...
      If you listened to the BS the lame stream media is spinning, you'd think it's all over.
      May as well pack up and go home and let Empty Suit phone it in.
      THAT'S WHY THEY PLAY THE GAME, BABY! To see who wins.
    • Birthpangs Don 2012/09/24 14:47:09
    • GANGA~Patriotic Revolution ... 2012/09/24 14:29:58
      GANGA~Patriotic Revolution BL-100+
      This is good news and I am not surprised!
      I have not seen any Obama bumper stickers
      around here, but plenty of Romney stickers!
    • Joe--PWCM 2012/09/24 14:24:00
      Doesn't matter what any poll says.

      I have told every young person I work with, if you plan on voting in Nov. get there early vote and get the hell home.

      I have a very bad feeling about this election and what may happen in some of the larger cities on election night...

      Keep your eyes open and stay aware.
    • Birthpangs Joe--PWCM 2012/09/24 14:25:28
    • Joe--PWCM Birthpangs 2012/09/24 14:31:31
      A lot more than that.
      The lines have been drawn, mexicans, black, muslim, whites etc are all over the place.
      Inner cities are a mess, suburbs no better, everyone thinks they are owed something and pissed because they are not getting it.

      DHS buying up ammo, you have the FBI going to a kids house over a book report he did in school on Ron Paul, the government sees most of us as domestic terrorists because we don't agree with their policies.

      Put it all together, with the MSM pushing racial divide even further, and it all leads to election night, and all the claims of disenfranchisement, voter fraud etc.

      Its a pot that is boiling and I think election night it blows...
    • Birthpangs Joe--PWCM 2012/09/24 14:34:10
    • Joe--PWCM Birthpangs 2012/09/24 14:37:25



      And check out the increase all over the country:

      People are pissed, some because they feel betrayed and robbed, and others because they feel entitled to everything.

      Nov. will interesting.
    • Birthpangs Joe--PWCM 2012/09/24 14:44:08 (edited)
    • Joe--PWCM Birthpangs 2012/09/24 14:55:04
      Its all part of what is going on.

      Part of the country is pissed over immigration.
      Part is pissed at NDAA
      part is pissed because they are not getting enough free stuff.
      Part is pissed over the UN and Clinton and their gun crap.

      Large parts calling each other racist because of how they vote.
      Large parts pissed at banks, and wall street.

      It all comes to a head on election night. Groups will push their candidate and neither one gives a damn. Obama, Romney etc. there is no difference.
      Just like there in no difference from Bush or clinton or Papa Bush.

      The game stays the same, the only difference is the name at the top.

      More and more are waking up, but the media still has a large portion doing what they want.
    • ☆astac☆... Birthpangs 2012/09/27 01:22:51
      Last time they used violence, this time will be worse
    • mrdog 2012/09/24 14:21:49
      No surprise to me. My team has been h=going house to house with lots of hand...
      Simple.... inexperience vs experience.... voters are not dumb... this mitt is too rich is dumb... O Team just doesn't get it... Americans want a successful man/woman in office to turn the econ around...this CLASS warfare O Team promotes is foolishness...

      I hope voters give Mitt a republican congress...Remember O has democrat congress his first two years...O can have turn the econ around then with his policies... problem is he didn't know what to do...INEXPERIENCED....

      Voters will man up .... we know what we are getting in Mitt...nobody knew with O but we know now.....empty chair.... no executive experience...no business experiencew...
      only hot air experienced... One and Done!!!

      November demands change in leadership....that is the bottom line...it is the econ stupid.

    • Bob S 2012/09/24 14:21:42
      Bob S
      HAVE YOU CHECKED ALL OF THE MAJOR POLLS NOW. iT IS ABOUT 6 WEEKS SINCE THE POLLS YOU MENTION were published. Romney is trailing in just about every poll. What ticks me off the most is that the states that elected Rupublican in 2010 and have lowered the unemployment rate, the Obama fools claim the credit. A state like Virginia is giving me the ost heart burn. Romney had to shove it to Obama NOW.
    • Birthpangs Bob S 2012/09/24 14:26:53
    • Bob S Birthpangs 2012/09/24 14:45:23
      Bob S
      As a Romney supported and being hopeful, I do hope that wherever you found this it is even 75% accurate. I wonder why we don't see the two in every paper every day. What am I missing here. Thanks for showing me that. It may even have made me feel a little better. Thanks for briightening up my day.
    • Jiorgia 2012/09/24 14:00:12
      good for him.
    • millermedia 2012/09/24 13:58:54
      No surprise to me. My team has been h=going house to house with lots of hand...
      I hope that we all can help turn at least one liberal voter each to reconsider to not vote for Obama.
    • CUDDLY ... millerm... 2012/09/24 14:02:25
      That's a tall order. I work in an environment wherein I am the minority. They all think of Obama's problems has to do with the Republican House blocking any legislation Obama backs and the fact that there is a black man (OK, half black) living in the WH. They call them white devils.

      It is totally incredible to me that they are that stupid and ill-informed no matter what Obama does.
    • Birthpangs CUDDLY ... 2012/09/24 14:04:53
    • CUDDLY ... Birthpangs 2012/09/24 14:05:41

      Some have woken up but the majority are dumber than a box of rocks.
    • Birthpangs CUDDLY ... 2012/09/24 14:10:28
    • CUDDLY ... Birthpangs 2012/09/24 14:14:55
      Blacks cannot by nature be racist .......... at least that's what the DNC teaches.
    • Birthpangs CUDDLY ... 2012/09/24 14:27:40
    • Bob S Birthpangs 2012/09/24 14:22:46
      Bob S
      They really only think color and WHITE is not a color to them.
    • Birthpangs millerm... 2012/09/24 14:02:42
    • sickofpolitics 2012/09/24 13:55:09
      No surprise to me. My team has been h=going house to house with lots of hand...
      Sweet, sounds good to me. We simply can not afford for more years of failed policies and out of control spending!!!
    • Birthpangs sickofp... 2012/09/24 13:57:02

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