Romney Nomination in doubt – Brokered Convention likely

April
24, 2012. Des Moines. Two networks yesterday, CNBC and MSNBC, broadcast
a little known fact – Ron Paul appears to be winning the Republican
nomination for President. When the popular Texas Congressman repeatedly
assured supporters that the race was about delegates, not beauty
contests, he apparently knew what he was talking about. Now, after three
more states locked in delegates to the GOP nominating convention – CO,
MN and IA – indicators point to a brokered convention with a possible,
even probable, Ron Paul victory.

Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) appears to be piling up enough delegates to force a brokered convention.

Mitt Romney in a panic

The only report announcing the news of another Paul victory yesterday was the Doug Wead Blog.
That write-up, which included the headline, ‘Romney in a Panic’, was
picked-up and reprinted by a number of independent news outlets like RT News and The Daily Paul.
Wead’s conclusion is based on a number of factors. First and foremost,
Ron Paul continues to win more delegates than Mitt Romney during each
state’s respective slating processes. Additionally, the writer points to
drastic, last-minute changes to GOP procedure showing an attempt to
limit the Paul vote. Some measures include a new poll tax in Washington
and robo-calls in New York telling Republican voters that only Mitt
Romney remains in the race.

What has the GOP power-brokers and their candidate in such a panic? In three short words – Colorado, Minnesota, Iowa.

Keep in mind that every major US news outlet continues to show Texas
Congressman Ron Paul in last place for the GOP nomination and with only
75 delegates. View Politico's delegate tracker
as an example. They show Rep. Paul winning 3 delegates in Colorado, 17
in Minnesota and 1 in Iowa. Those networks however, have based their
numbers on which candidate each state’s delegates are pledged or likely to vote for. The more important number is who they actually do vote for. And in that race, the only race that matters, Ron Paul is shocking the political world.

Colorado

As reported by this author last week in the article, ‘Colo, Minn, GOP Delegates chosen – Paul Strategy Working’,
the local Colorado Ron Paul campaign teamed up with the remnants of
former candidate Rick Santorum’s supporters. Together, they created a
fusion slate of delegates to take on front-runner Mitt Romney and throw
their collective voting power behind the last challenger remaining, Ron
Paul.

Last week, the Paul campaign sent out a press release quoting the
Denver Post’s headline proclaiming, ‘Stunning Upset’. The Post was
referring to Congressman Paul’s delegate haul in the state party’s
selection process. More importantly, the Colorado selection was the
first to be conducted since former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum
dropped out of the race, leaving it to the final two men standing – Mitt
Romney and Ron Paul.

The result, and a possible indicator of things to come, was Colorado
Republicans refusing to give Mitt Romney even half their state’s voting
delegates. If that trend continues, Mitt Romney cannot mathematically
reach the needed 1,144 delegates, at least not on the first ballot.

This author pointed out last week that most of the national media, as
well as the Colorado GOP, refuse to acknowledge Rep. Paul’s delegates
in Colorado. The state party simply calls Paul’s delegates, “unpledged”.
As the Paul campaign, as well as a small handful of other publications
pointed out – Ron Paul actually took home 12 Colorado delegates,
compared to 16 for Mitt Romney and 8 for Rick Santorum. Together, the
anti-Romney delegates outnumber Romney’s 20 to 16.

Minnesota

The independent-leaning state of Minnesota was one that many thought
Ron Paul might win outright. While the candidate didn’t win the “beauty
contest” as Paul calls it, the libertarian conservative is cleaning up
with regard to delegates. Minnesota’s delegate selection process is one
of those that happens over the course of a few weeks and occurs locally,
as Ron Paul puts it, “one precinct at a time, one delegate at a time.”

A few days ago, the Paul campaign and this author both announced the
candidate’s surprise delegate haul in Minnesota. At the time, three
major Congressional districts locked in their delegates and Ron Paul
carried all three. In the excited words of the candidate himself, Ron
Paul exclaimed, “Have you heard the news yet? Yesterday, Minnesota held
three district conventions. Our campaign swept all three – winning nine
delegates to the Republican National Convention in Tampa.” Again, read
this author’s April 16th column titled, ‘Colo, Minn, GOP Delegates chosen, Paul Strategy Working’ for more information.

Now, just a few days later and with another block of Minnesota GOP
delegates being chosen, Ron Paul has guaranteed himself a victory in the
state. As confirmed by Rachel Maddow last night and by Ron Paul
himself while he was the special guest host of CNBC in the morning, Ron
Paul has already locked in 20 of the state’s 40 delegates. 16 of those
40 still remain to be chosen and will be awarded over the coming days.
As Paul announced yesterday, and Maddow confirmed last night, 24
Minnesota delegates were chosen through this weekend and 20 of them are
Ron Paul’s.

Iowa

In the most stunning and unbelievable example of the Republican
Party’s dysfunctional Presidential nominating process this year, the
state of Iowa now has its third official winner. As humorously noted
last night by Maddow, Newt Gingrich is the only candidate not to have won Iowa.

First, Mitt Romney was forced into the winner’s circle in a crazed,
midnight, backroom announcement, even though the votes didn’t warrant
it. Whiteout Press was one of the only media outlets in the nation to
write about the faulty vote totals and was vindicated two weeks later
when the Iowa GOP reversed its decision and awarded the victory in Iowa
to Rick Santorum. Read the Whiteout Press article 'Sandorum Won Iowa and didn't say Black'
predicting the reversal two weeks before the Iowa GOP reversed its
ruling. As a result of the fiasco, the Iowa Republican state chairman
resigned. Read the article, ‘Midnight Chaos at Iowa Caucus’ for election night details.

Nothing sums up this weekend’s surprise results like Rachel Maddow’s
on-air announcement on MSNBC, “I think Ron Paul just won Iowa.”

The left-leaning political anchor was referring to this
weekend’s official awarding of Iowa GOP delegates to the party’s
national nominating convention. While the state party
has yet to post the results or make any announcement, the results are
trickling out on their own, including the Paul campaign and on-air
comments on CNBC and MSNBC. Those results show Ron Paul winning the most
Iowa GOP delegates, including the new Iowa state party Chairmanship.

Iowa has 28 total delegates to the GOP nominating convention. The
national media still shows Ron Paul with only 1 Iowa delegate however.
Watch closely over the coming days as the state party quietly changes
its totals to show Ron Paul going from 1 delegate to 14 - a full 50
percent of the state’s entire delegation to the nominating convention.
And again, many of the remaining delegates are party leaders, elected
officials and other super delegates who have yet to assign their votes.

Romney in trouble

The only good news for Mitt Romney is that Iowa, Minnesota and
Colorado weren’t the former Governor’s strongest states to begin with.
And while the Romney campaign may not be in “panic” mode just yet as
some independent reports are suggesting, the candidate and his
establishment backers must be concerned. With Mitt Romney failing to
capture even half of the delegates from these initial states, he is on
course to fight it out for the party nomination at a brokered convention
this summer.

The Warren Harding lesson

Many political observers, not just within the Ron Paul campaign, are
calling the Texas Congressman’s nomination plan the ‘Harding Strategy’.
Referring to the 1920 Republican nominating convention held in Chicago,
Warren Harding was at the bottom of a list of 12 potential GOP nominees.
Unable to unite behind one candidate during the primary process, the
delegates were forced into a brokered convention.

Through the first 6 rounds of delegate voting, Harding didn’t even
finish in the top three during any of the votes. But by the 10th vote,
Warren Harding walked away with the Republican nomination. He went on to
win the general election and become President.

While many political analysts are calling Ron Paul’s current journey a
mirror image of Harding’s 1920 trek, others aren’t quite convinced. As
the Paul campaign itself continues to point out, only half of the states
have voted so far. Nothing’s been decided yet. If nothing else, just
when the Republican leadership and the national media have proclaimed
Mitt Romney the GOP nominee, Ron Paul’s string of delegate victories
this week may force them to do what they were forced to do in Iowa –
admit they’re wrong.

Whether or not the Texas Congressman can duplicate Warren Harding’s
stunning upset on the way to the White House is another question. But if
delegate selections continue on the course they’re on, Mitt Romney will
not have enough delegates to win the nomination outright. If that turns
out to be the case and the GOP heads into a brokered convention, Ron
Paul may have the party right where he wants it. A brokered convention
has been his strategy all along.

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