Rick Santorum loses Illinois primary, Mitt Romney wins
Mopeder
2012/03/21 09:45:48
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Illinois Primary 2012: 3 Big Reasons Santorum Lost
Mitt Romney won Illinois's Republican presidential primary and dramatically increased his chances to become his party's 2012 nominee, largely due to the support of moderate conservatives and voters who thought he was the candidate with the best chance to beat President Barack Obama in November.
The former Massachusetts governor clinched his victory with a 12-point lead over Rick Santorum, the runner-up, in Obama's home state. Romney won most of the 54 delegates up for grabs Tuesday and solidified his position as the front-runner in this year's unusually long race for the Republican nomination.
With 99 percent of results in, Romney received 46.7 percent of votes in Illinois. Santorum was second with 35 percent, followed by Texas congressman Ron Paul (9.3 percent) and former House of Representatives speaker Newt Gingrich (8 percent).
Not all of the delegates had been officially awarded to the candidates as of late Tuesday, but the Associated Press reported that 40 delegates will support Romney and represent him in August at the Republican National Convention in Tampa, Fla. Additional delegates -- Illinois has a total of 69 -- will be chosen at a later time by party leaders.
Romney's delegate tally will push him even further ahead of Santorum -- before Tuesday's primary, the front-runner had 522 delegates to Santorum's 252. A total of 1,144 delegates are needed to secure the Republican nomination and face Obama.
When Romney and his wife, Ann, took the stage in Schaumburg, Ill., on Tuesday night, only 45 percent of precincts had reported their results, but media outlets had already projected him the winner. He spent most of his speech hammering "Professor" Obama, who Romney claims couldn't have learned about the economy as a University of Chicago law professor.
"It's time to say these words, this word -- 'enough.' We've had enough," Romney said to cheering supporters.
The Illinois win, as well as his overwhelming victory in Puerto Rico over the weekend, was what Romney needed to pad his lead in a race in which no Republican has emerged as the undisputed standard-bearer.
Polls leading up to Tuesday's vote had Romney in the lead by an average winning margin of 10 points, according to Real Clear Politics. Still, Santorum had been hoping for an upset like the ones he scored last week in Alabama and Mississippi, propelling him into a two-man race with Romney.
Although Pennsylvania's primary in April looks promising for native son Santorum, other upcoming contests in Washington, D.C., New York, Connecticut and elsewhere appear Romney's to win.
Tuesday marked the beginning of the end for Santorum. Below are three big reasons he lost Illinois, and why he'll probably lose the nomination.
Demographics
Exit poll data collected by CNN indicated that Illinois had significantly different demographics than in Alabama and Mississippi, where Santorum won and Romney came in third place. The Prairie State lacked the conservative, evangelical and religious voters that helped him sweep the Deep South, giving Romney a competitive edge.
Forty-two percent of Illinois primary voters identified themselves as evangelical or born-again Christians, while 31 percent said they were "very conservative." In both Mississippi and Alabama, about 80 percent said they were evangelical Christians; in Mississippi, 42 percent considered themselves "very conservative," compared with 36 percent of Alabama voters.
Santorum's popularity among those more conservative voters, as well as his favor among voters from rural parts of Illinois, helped him win many counties downstate. Unfortunately for him, Romney won over Chicago and surrounding counties, which are much more densely populated and politically moderate.
In his speech in Gettysburg, Pa., Santorum tried to play up the exit poll numbers and paint himself as the real "conservative" in the race. "We won the areas that the Republicans and the conservatives populate," he said.
Santorum is a favorite among many on the far right, but his inability to win over moderates is a debilitating weakness, one that would become even more pronounced in the general election. And he isn't the universal favorite among all Tea Party movement supporters and evangelical Christians. For example, he lost badly to Romney on Tuesday in Illinois's Peoria County, 46.6 percent to 37.5 percent, which has a strong Tea Party presence that the Washington Post described as representative of middle America.
Low Turnout
Despite pleas by Republican candidates for Illinois voters to show up Tuesday, the primary had very low turnout -- a likely sign of voters' lack of enthusiasm.
Throughout Chicago, voter participation was "extremely low" Jim Allen, a spokesman for the city's election board, told the Chicago Sun-Times. Some of the lowest-turnout areas were Republican strongholds.
Only one in five registered voters cast ballots in Sangamon County, a largely conservative area in central Illinois, according to the Associated Press. The same ratio of voters in the Republican-leaning suburbs of Cook County made their ways to the polls.
Santorum realized that turnout was critical to any success he might hope for. In Illinois last week, he told a group of supporters that "turnout is everything."
But only 47 percent of voters expressed strong suppor for their candidate, while 40 percent said they "have reservations" and 11 percent said they disliked the other candidates.
More than three months into the Republican campaign, no other Republican candidate -- including Santorum -- has been able to drum up enough excitement to dislodge Romney from his perch as inevitable nominee.
Electability
The most telling bit of data from Tuesday's exit polls: the degree to which voters considered the ability to beat Obama the most important quality for the Republican nominee. A total of 36 percent said electability was a candidate's most important attribute, while 23 percent cited "strong moral character" as No. 1. Another 19 percent said being a "true conservative" was most important and 18 percent looked for "the right experience" in their candidate.
Electability is a quality that voters across the United States value in a candidate, regardless of how conservative a state is. In Mississippi, 39 percent of Republican voters said defeating Obama was the most important factor in a Republican presidential nominee, compared to 20 percent who selected "true conservative" and "strong moral character." In Alabama, 35 percent said electability was the most important.
Not surprisingly, Romney dominated among voters who thought a candidate's chance of taking down Obama was his most important trait. In Illinois, 74 percent of voters who had that priority in mind voted for Romney.
Romney's victory in Illinois is a major blow to the Santorum campaign because it proves an inevitable truth about the 2012 presidential election: At this point, Republicans just want someone they think can beat Obama.
Source: AP
Mitt Romney won Illinois's Republican presidential primary and dramatically increased his chances to become his party's 2012 nominee, largely due to the support of moderate conservatives and voters who thought he was the candidate with the best chance to beat President Barack Obama in November.
The former Massachusetts governor clinched his victory with a 12-point lead over Rick Santorum, the runner-up, in Obama's home state. Romney won most of the 54 delegates up for grabs Tuesday and solidified his position as the front-runner in this year's unusually long race for the Republican nomination.
With 99 percent of results in, Romney received 46.7 percent of votes in Illinois. Santorum was second with 35 percent, followed by Texas congressman Ron Paul (9.3 percent) and former House of Representatives speaker Newt Gingrich (8 percent).
Not all of the delegates had been officially awarded to the candidates as of late Tuesday, but the Associated Press reported that 40 delegates will support Romney and represent him in August at the Republican National Convention in Tampa, Fla. Additional delegates -- Illinois has a total of 69 -- will be chosen at a later time by party leaders.
Romney's delegate tally will push him even further ahead of Santorum -- before Tuesday's primary, the front-runner had 522 delegates to Santorum's 252. A total of 1,144 delegates are needed to secure the Republican nomination and face Obama.
When Romney and his wife, Ann, took the stage in Schaumburg, Ill., on Tuesday night, only 45 percent of precincts had reported their results, but media outlets had already projected him the winner. He spent most of his speech hammering "Professor" Obama, who Romney claims couldn't have learned about the economy as a University of Chicago law professor.
"It's time to say these words, this word -- 'enough.' We've had enough," Romney said to cheering supporters.
The Illinois win, as well as his overwhelming victory in Puerto Rico over the weekend, was what Romney needed to pad his lead in a race in which no Republican has emerged as the undisputed standard-bearer.
Polls leading up to Tuesday's vote had Romney in the lead by an average winning margin of 10 points, according to Real Clear Politics. Still, Santorum had been hoping for an upset like the ones he scored last week in Alabama and Mississippi, propelling him into a two-man race with Romney.
Although Pennsylvania's primary in April looks promising for native son Santorum, other upcoming contests in Washington, D.C., New York, Connecticut and elsewhere appear Romney's to win.
Tuesday marked the beginning of the end for Santorum. Below are three big reasons he lost Illinois, and why he'll probably lose the nomination.
Demographics
Exit poll data collected by CNN indicated that Illinois had significantly different demographics than in Alabama and Mississippi, where Santorum won and Romney came in third place. The Prairie State lacked the conservative, evangelical and religious voters that helped him sweep the Deep South, giving Romney a competitive edge.
Forty-two percent of Illinois primary voters identified themselves as evangelical or born-again Christians, while 31 percent said they were "very conservative." In both Mississippi and Alabama, about 80 percent said they were evangelical Christians; in Mississippi, 42 percent considered themselves "very conservative," compared with 36 percent of Alabama voters.
Santorum's popularity among those more conservative voters, as well as his favor among voters from rural parts of Illinois, helped him win many counties downstate. Unfortunately for him, Romney won over Chicago and surrounding counties, which are much more densely populated and politically moderate.
In his speech in Gettysburg, Pa., Santorum tried to play up the exit poll numbers and paint himself as the real "conservative" in the race. "We won the areas that the Republicans and the conservatives populate," he said.
Santorum is a favorite among many on the far right, but his inability to win over moderates is a debilitating weakness, one that would become even more pronounced in the general election. And he isn't the universal favorite among all Tea Party movement supporters and evangelical Christians. For example, he lost badly to Romney on Tuesday in Illinois's Peoria County, 46.6 percent to 37.5 percent, which has a strong Tea Party presence that the Washington Post described as representative of middle America.
Low Turnout
Despite pleas by Republican candidates for Illinois voters to show up Tuesday, the primary had very low turnout -- a likely sign of voters' lack of enthusiasm.
Throughout Chicago, voter participation was "extremely low" Jim Allen, a spokesman for the city's election board, told the Chicago Sun-Times. Some of the lowest-turnout areas were Republican strongholds.
Only one in five registered voters cast ballots in Sangamon County, a largely conservative area in central Illinois, according to the Associated Press. The same ratio of voters in the Republican-leaning suburbs of Cook County made their ways to the polls.
Santorum realized that turnout was critical to any success he might hope for. In Illinois last week, he told a group of supporters that "turnout is everything."
But only 47 percent of voters expressed strong suppor for their candidate, while 40 percent said they "have reservations" and 11 percent said they disliked the other candidates.
More than three months into the Republican campaign, no other Republican candidate -- including Santorum -- has been able to drum up enough excitement to dislodge Romney from his perch as inevitable nominee.
Electability
The most telling bit of data from Tuesday's exit polls: the degree to which voters considered the ability to beat Obama the most important quality for the Republican nominee. A total of 36 percent said electability was a candidate's most important attribute, while 23 percent cited "strong moral character" as No. 1. Another 19 percent said being a "true conservative" was most important and 18 percent looked for "the right experience" in their candidate.
Electability is a quality that voters across the United States value in a candidate, regardless of how conservative a state is. In Mississippi, 39 percent of Republican voters said defeating Obama was the most important factor in a Republican presidential nominee, compared to 20 percent who selected "true conservative" and "strong moral character." In Alabama, 35 percent said electability was the most important.
Not surprisingly, Romney dominated among voters who thought a candidate's chance of taking down Obama was his most important trait. In Illinois, 74 percent of voters who had that priority in mind voted for Romney.
Romney's victory in Illinois is a major blow to the Santorum campaign because it proves an inevitable truth about the 2012 presidential election: At this point, Republicans just want someone they think can beat Obama.
| Results for Illinois Republican Primary (U.S. Presidential Primary) |
| Mar 20, 2012 (99% of precincts reporting) |
| Mitt Romney | 428,434 | 46.7% |  |
| Rick Santorum | 321,079 | 35% | |
| Ron Paul | 85,464 | 9.3% | |
| Newt Gingrich | 72,942 | 8% | |
| Other | 9,127 | 1% | |
Read More: http://www.sodahead.com/united-states/Barack-Obama...
As the song goes ...
It appears that in Illinois, an elected politician is supposed to serve two terms...
One in Office... and One in Prison. For example:
_Former Gov. Rod Blagojevich is just the most recent figure on a long list of Illinois politicians who have dealt with legal problems. Here are some of the more memorable:
_Rod Blagojevich _ Governor from 2003 through 2009, when he became the first Illinois governor in history to be impeached. Convicted of numerous corruption charges Monday, including allegations that he tried to sell or trade President Barack Obama's old Senate seat.
_ George Ryan _ Governor from 1999 through 2003. After leaving office, was convicted of racketeering for actions as governor and secretary of state. In November 2007, began serving 6 1/2 years in federal prison.
_ Dan Walker _ Governor from 1973-1977. Pleaded guilty to bank fraud and other charges in 1987 related to his business activities after leaving office. Spent just over a y...
It appears that in Illinois, an elected politician is supposed to serve two terms...
One in Office... and One in Prison. For example:
_Former Gov. Rod Blagojevich is just the most recent figure on a long list of Illinois politicians who have dealt with legal problems. Here are some of the more memorable:
_Rod Blagojevich _ Governor from 2003 through 2009, when he became the first Illinois governor in history to be impeached. Convicted of numerous corruption charges Monday, including allegations that he tried to sell or trade President Barack Obama's old Senate seat.
_ George Ryan _ Governor from 1999 through 2003. After leaving office, was convicted of racketeering for actions as governor and secretary of state. In November 2007, began serving 6 1/2 years in federal prison.
_ Dan Walker _ Governor from 1973-1977. Pleaded guilty to bank fraud and other charges in 1987 related to his business activities after leaving office. Spent just over a year and a half in federal prison.
_ Otto Kerner _ Governor from 1961-1968. Resigned to become judge, then was convicted of bribery related to his tenure as governor. Sentenced to three years in prison.
_ William G. Stratton _ Governor from 1953-1961. Indicted after leaving office on income-tax evasion charges but was acquitted.
_ Lennington Small _ Governor from 1921-1929. Indicted while in office on embezzlement charges but was acquitted.
_ Joel Matteson _ Governor from 1853-1857. After leaving office, a Sangamon County court ruled that he owed the state more than $253,000 in connection with a scheme to pay government contractors. His property was sold at auction.
_ Secretary of State Paul Powell _ Roughly $800,000 was found stuffed in shoe boxes Powell's home after he died in 1970.
_ Auditor Orville Hodge _ Pleaded guilty in the 1950s to embezzling more than $1.5 million from the state while in office. He used the money to buy two planes, four automobiles and homes in Illinois and Florida.
_ Attorney General William Scott _ Convicted of tax fraud and spent a year in prison in the 1980s. Was Illinois attorney general from 1969-80.
_ U.S. Rep. Dan Rostenkowski _ Pleaded guilty to corruption charges and left office in 1995. Served 17 months in prison, but was pardoned by President Bill Clinton. Rostenkowski was a representative from 1959-95.
_ U.S. Rep. Mel Reynolds _ Convicted of misconduct with a 16-year-old campaign volunteer and resigned in 1995. Served more than two years in prison. Later convicted on federal wire and bank fraud charges and sentenced to more than six years in prison. President Clinton commuted that sentence.
__
Sources: The Associated Press; Illinois Historic Preservation Agency, Charles Wheeler, University of Illinois-Springfield; Mike Lawrence and the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute.
Speeding through life... without a helmet... comfortable in knowing that society will pick up the tab when he impact's life's bridge abutments.
Support the Candidates that support the...
Didn't happen. Move on home, The Republican Party has the all about me syndrome with Newt and Rick. They do not care about the US, They are in it for themselves and will let their Party burn. Sad days ahead for Republicans.
That means what they are really fighting for is the shape of the future of their party, each believing it should be reshaped in their own image. It's a clash of Titan egos and it will end with those egos all being equally unacceptable to the American voters.
He's toast.
primary reason, gop voters in illinois are far more moderate than in the southern states
and western and farm states. the real irony here is that romney is winning in areas that
he will not carry in a general election vrs the president. the states that he is losing in are the states that he will carry in a general election. that is the irony.
it is nice to see people that are very committed to the canditate.
i may disagree with you on virtually every issue, but it is still nice to the faithful
really support there man, and not think of him as better than the lesser of two evils.