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PUBLIC OPINION > Most Moderates Think That Romney Will Lose the Election

SodaHead News 2012/10/09 19:00:00
By most accounts, last week's debate was a low point for Obama's campaign. Even Obama supporters seemed to concede that Romney was better prepared while the president came off as distant, disheveled, and fatuous. But could that single debate have cost him the election? We asked the public to find out.

romney obama

Despite Obama's performance in Denver, the popular vote still went to Obama by a small margin. This says very little about the election, but it does tell us that the debate was not enough to swing many votes. That doesn't mean Obama will be able to get away with another lackluster debate, but we'll have to wait and see.

Mitt Hasn't Convinced the Moderates

As usual, liberals and conservatives stuck to their guns. Even supporters who admitted Obama lost the debate were confident their candidate would come back in time for the election. Only 5% of liberals felt Romney would win. However, the big news here is that Obama still took the moderate vote -- by a lot. Only 30% of moderates think Romney will win.

Florida Leans Right

As you may well know, elections aren't necessarily won by popular vote. Rutherford B. Hayes, Benjamin Harrison, and George W. Bush all managed to get elected without the popular vote. As you might remember, Florida was a big deal when Bush won, and Romney appears to have that state on lock-down at the moment.

College Voters Tip the Scales

As expected, college-aged voters still strongly support Obama. This is especially important here because college-aged people are typically less likely to vote. Teens also showed support for Obama, though not as much, and they're obviously not allowed to vote at all. With that in mind, Obama might not be in as good a shape as the overall would suggest.

If you'd like to vote on this question, dig deeper into the demographics, or engage in existing discussion about the topic, visit our poll about the Denver debate. We'd love to hear from you!
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  • Big_Tickets 2012/11/03 23:05:10
    Big_Tickets
    +3
    He will loose Because he lies on almost everything... such a sleaze ball. He stands for nothing , but a vote for himself. I am from Mass... he wrecked the state during his term.. he lies about what he did.. with bold face
  • SIMPATTYCO 2012/10/30 22:06:34
    SIMPATTYCO
    social networking doesn't agree nor do I
  • Vendetta 2012/10/22 20:32:38
    Vendetta
    I love the Socialist communist left winger tree hugging rabbit screwing yellow cowards. Any man who will not stand and protect Himself his family or anyone is a coward and you deserve what the government will do to you. I least I'll go out fighting for my rights and my freedom rather then coward in a corner sucking ODUMBASS dick licking his butthole hoping they dont shoot me like a dog.
  • A. White Vendetta 2012/11/09 01:13:02
    A. White
    Vendetta You make no sense.
  • Quietman ~PWCM~JLA 2012/10/19 21:10:41
    Quietman   ~PWCM~JLA
    Smells like BS
  • gvc 2012/10/19 03:36:58
    gvc
    Moderate is code for Liberal Democrat that is afraid to admit it.
  • A. White gvc 2012/11/09 01:21:06
    A. White
    I dont think you know what Liberal means. Tu be liberal is a good thing. A Liberal is one who
    considers the issue and decides to make a change based on the merits; a liberal is concerned about others and compromises or moves to assist is fellow man; Liberals are willing to change for the good of all. Republicans are afraid of change and don't care about others.
  • gvc A. White 2012/11/09 03:32:31
    gvc
    To be Liberal= complete and total insanity!
    You people do not have (collectively) two good brain cells to rub together.
  • MarinerFH 2012/10/19 03:25:19
    MarinerFH
    I never expect a fair evaluation from far leftist leaning SH staff.
  • SuckerPunch 2012/10/19 02:10:22
    SuckerPunch
    RCP Average - 10/4 - 10/18 -- 47.9 to 47.7 Romney +0.2
  • Cal 2012/10/15 20:18:02
  • debrarae 2012/10/15 17:40:33
    debrarae
    If People fail to vote, anyone (Romney or Obama) could lose the election. It's up to us to vote, and make our choices known. #tcot@TeaPartyPatriots
  • Tootie 2012/10/15 15:39:25 (edited)
    Tootie
    +2
    Mitt Romney is Bush if you voted for Bush before trust and believe you are voting for him again He sound just like bush..well here we go again!!!burrr... To me truthfully the world will never get better if we the people dont do as we need to do STICK 2GETHER as HUMAN.... Help each other when they are in need whats wrong with that...Just saying
  • Carlo 2012/10/15 11:35:08
    Carlo
    +1
    What you know, moderates are now the new political genius's
  • ComeOnNow 2012/10/15 10:31:17
    ComeOnNow
    +1
    Great. Then if you are an Obama supporter, there is not even really a need for you to vote. Apparently Obama has it in the bag.
  • michael... ComeOnNow 2012/10/15 11:01:57
    michael.samar.5
    +4
    No silly...Obama supporters are smart, so we would never fall for that line. You bet we will vote, in fact take a look at the early voting polls....we already are!!!!
  • robert michael... 2012/10/15 12:33:21
    robert
    +2
    Obama lied and americans died! Is this leadership we can trust?
  • michael... robert 2012/10/15 13:00:51
    michael.samar.5
    +4
    It's a catchy slogan and it rhymes, but not at all true and doesn't even make sense. If there was a lie, it didn't cause the deaths so the died should come first. Your alleged BS lie is around a coverup, which also is not true. You are so thick! Those that were there were saying the attack was related to the uprising because it was the most obvious connection. When the intel that it was a coordinated attack, which takes time to verify (especially since whenever there is an attack every terror group on earth tries to take credit), and when the Administration was informed of what happened, we were. So yes, yes, yes....this is leadership we can trust! Meanwhile, since Romney has changed his postions so many times, is hiding something in his tax returns and won't reveal any details to his mathematically impossible plan, he cannot be trusted!
  • robert michael... 2012/10/15 13:04:24
    robert
    +2
    Why did obama apologise to terrorists for americans? Did we americans do something wrong to these terrorists to cause them to kill us?
  • michael... robert 2012/10/15 16:10:57
    michael.samar.5
    +4
    He NEVER has, and NEVER will apologize to terrorists. He apologized to the Muslim people for a video that was offensive and disrespectful to their religion. As he should.
  • Golanv ... michael... 2012/10/18 05:02:08
    Golanv (Raven) BN0
    +1
    Actually, the one who called the 9/11 terrorists 'brave warriors' is the dude who made the anti-Obama film 2016... D'souza.
  • P®Φ₫!ĢҰ™ robert 2012/10/21 02:56:40
    P®Φ₫!ĢҰ™
    Let's see how you react if another country invaded us.
  • Carrie michael... 2012/10/17 00:42:57
    Carrie
    You must have been watching the coverup channels. It was and is a cover-up. It's worse than Watergate and no one died in Watergate. You are part of the problem in this country. Mike Rogers came out the next day and said it was a terror attack. He works on the intelligence committee. He also told Obama it was a terror attack and he chose to go to the United Nations and say it was over a video. This President acts like a junvenile. What did we expect from someone who only worked as a community organizer.
  • michael... Carrie 2012/10/18 17:06:16
    michael.samar.5
    LOL! You are a juvenile! Obama said it was a terror attack as well, multiple times. Who cares whether the attack was sparked over the video or not - all rationale people at the time assumed it was. What is the difference? An attack is an attack. Both events were happening simultaneously. You people are just trying to make a scandal out of nothing. This one isn't working. Your boy was a made a fool of trying! NEXT!
  • Carrie michael... 2012/10/18 23:34:32
    Carrie
    Michael, that is a lie. It's the cover up. Do you know what that is?
  • A. White Carrie 2012/11/09 01:33:33
    A. White
    Community organizers strive to help people. Venture capitalists strive to rob the hard working people and give it to themselves and their rich friends. They hide their booty overseas.
  • Carrie A. White 2012/11/09 01:35:46
    Carrie
    There might be a place for a community organizer but it's not the POTUS.
  • ComeOnNow michael... 2012/10/15 13:44:42
    ComeOnNow
    I was joking as you clearly are as well saying that Obama voters are smart.
  • Scott ComeOnNow 2012/10/15 19:20:48
    Scott
    +1
    A hint for the future: jokes are supposed to be funny, not merely stupid.
  • ComeOnNow Scott 2012/10/15 21:26:13
    ComeOnNow
    I know, even pretending Obama voters are smart is pretty stupid
  • Scott ComeOnNow 2012/10/15 21:47:10
    Scott
    +1
    Nope. You're still lost. Keep trying though--I'll try to help--when I say "warm" it means you are moving in the right direction. When I say "hot" it means you are ALMOST THERE! Right now, though, you'd make a good beer fridge--I like mine icy cold.
  • Rodney 2012/10/15 07:06:28
    Rodney
    Hahaha, Polls are like cars. You can find them in any configuration you want. It's tight, but the most current I've seen shows the moderates and undecided are leaning towards Mitt.
    Gallup;
    Romney 49%, Obama 47% Among Likely Voters
    Registered voter trend suggests Obama is recovering from post-debate drop
    October 9, 2012 (just in time for another whoopin'.

    (Reuters) - Republican challenger Mitt Romney has pulled ahead of President Barack Obama in the race for the White House for the first time in more than a month and leads 45 percent to 44 percent among likely voters, according to a Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll released on Wednesday.

    Over in the Rasmussen Reports presidential tracking poll Mitt Romney has a 1% lead over President Obama which is within the margin of error. Obama was at 47% compared to 48% for Romney. Third party candidates were at 2% and undecided voters were at 3% nationally. Rasmussen Reports released their latest presidential tracking poll this morning, Friday, October 12, 2012.
  • Jon Bergen Rodney 2012/10/17 01:58:24
  • Rodney Jon Bergen 2012/10/17 02:07:17
    Rodney
    Reread what I wrote and then see if you can come up with a more intelligent comeback.
  • Jon Bergen Rodney 2012/10/17 13:07:48
  • Rodney Jon Bergen 2012/10/18 00:51:45 (edited)
    Rodney
    Keep dreaming.
    An update to an election forecasting model announced by two University of Colorado professors in August continues to project that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election.

    According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes -- down five votes from their initial prediction -- and short of the 270 needed to win.
    http://www.colorado.edu/news/...

    These guys have been successful 100% in the last 8 presidential elections.

    BTW, from your Huff and Puff link, " Respondents favored Romney on a variety of issues, including the economy (58 percent to 40 percent over Obama), taxes (51 percent to 44 percent) and the budget deficit (59 percent to 36 percent). Romney held a narrower advantage on health care, 49 percent to 46 percent. On foreign policy, 49 percent said Obama would handle it better and 47 percent said Romney would."

    What do we vote for, the guy we want to have steel our beer and smokes or the guy that will fix our problems?
  • Jon Bergen Rodney 2012/10/18 23:00:20
    Jon Bergen
    'Never Wrong' Pundit Sticks By Obama in 2012 (US News & World Report)

    '[T]he mastermind behind the "Keys to the White House," continues to cast his lot with Obama.

    Since Lichtman used it to predict Regan's win in 1984, the keys have never been wrong. And they are legendary in the world of political science.

    Lichtman says the formula is so trusted that it convinced former president Bill Clinton to take the presidential plunge in 1992.'

    'Keys' forecasting model predicts an Obama victory (American Public Media)

    Most Models Have Obama as the Favorite (New York Times)

    predicts obama victory american public media models obama york times
  • Rodney Jon Bergen 2012/10/19 01:45:55
    Rodney
    I notice you can only bring up an August graph. Lot of things have changed since then. All things have changed since the first debate, the VP debate and now the second debate.
    http://www.realclearpolitics....

    Most predictions for senate and house control are showing Republicans will win.
  • Jon Bergen Rodney 2012/10/19 03:18:50
  • Rodney Jon Bergen 2012/10/19 03:35:30
    Rodney
    A University of Colorado analysis of state-by-state factors leading to the Electoral College selection of every U.S. president since 1980 forecasts that the 2012 winner will be Mitt Romney.
    http://www.colorado.edu/news/...

    Gallup1
    http://www.usatoday.com/story...
    http://www.gallup.com/poll/15...

    The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and another two percent (2%) are undecided.
    http://www.rasmussenreports.c...

    Like I said above, had you bothered to read, polls are like car, you can find them configured anyway you want.
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