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People tonight say Iowa has set the political path. But could the real bellweather state be Oklahoma?

TruBluTopaz 2012/01/04 03:01:03
"

Obama popularity reflected in fewer registered Democrats



The Oklahoman Editorial Oklahoman Comment on this article 148
Published: January 3, 2012
Modified: December 30, 2011 at 3:19 pm

NEBRASKA Democrat Ben Nelson is leaving the U.S. Senate when his term expires next year. The only Democratic member of the Oklahoma congressional delegation is leaving the House when his term expires in 2012.



In this Dec. 23, 2011 file photo, President Barack Obama speaks at the White House in Washington.

Nationally, the Democratic Party is having a hard time registering new voters. The party's “market share” of new registrations has fallen significantly since 2008, when Barack Obama rode a wave of new Democratic registrations in battleground states.


Obama is part of the equation in the decision of Democrats such as Nelson and U.S. Rep. Dan Boren of Muskogee to retire from Congress. They have other reasons, of course, but the party's popularity in Oklahoma, Nebraska and other red states is certainly a factor.


Democrats still hold a registration advantage, even in Oklahoma, but the advantage is fading. What's more, party registration isn't a firm indicator of who will win an election. Despite Oklahoma having more Democrats than Republicans, all statewide offices are filled by Republicans and Republicans are in solid control of the Legislature.


Obama may win another term next year despite these trends because swing states won't necessarily embrace the Republican nominee. But the battle in battleground states will be fierce. A key indicator of enthusiasm — or lack thereof — for Obama is the slide in new Democratic registrations — just as the Democratic surge in 2008 presaged his victory that year.


In 2008, 49 percent of new voter registrations were in the Democratic column. This year the figure is 32 percent. Only 25 percent of new registrations were in the GOP camp in 2008. This year it's 34 percent. Independents, a critical bloc for Obama in 2008 and for the 2012 nominees, accounted for 26 percent of new registrations in 2008 and 33 percent this year.


In Oklahoma, the decline of Democratic registrations and a surge of independent registrations are trends worth watching. From 2001 to 2011, the number of Oklahoma voters registered as Democrats went from 55 percent to 48 percent. During those 10 years, the number of Oklahoma voters registered as Republicans rose from 36 percent to 41 percent, while the number independents rose from 9 percent to 11.5 percent.


Over that decade, the number of registered Democrats in Oklahoma slipped below 1 million. Not since 1980, when the overall population was smaller, has the Democratic registration failed to top 1 million.


In 1964, the last time Oklahoma gave its electoral votes to the Democratic presidential nominee (Lyndon Johnson), Democratic registration accounted for 81 percent of the total. In 2008, when Obama lost in all 77 counties, the number was down to 50 percent. It's been falling ever since.


About six months before the 2010 election, state Senate Democratic Leader-elect Andrew Rice said Republicans were “fatally overconfident” about the election. That would be the one in which Republicans took it all.


Rice left the Senate this year before his term expired, citing personal reasons. A more apt metaphor for his party's direction and prospects could not be found.



Read more: http://newsok.com/obama-popularity-reflected-in-fewer-registe...

Note: Be sure to look at the graphic upper left to see what your state is the worst at and note that Iowa is the OLDEST state which makes it demographically out of step.
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  • ndaye 2012/01/09 11:06:28
  • Mike McCullough 2012/01/04 05:01:12
    Mike McCullough
    I don't care to argue the worthiness of Iowa to be the 1st in leading the charge for presidential races but I can assure you that Iowa is no longer a major Red state, as a matter of fact it has moved closer to being a blue one in terms of it's overall voting record. There are a lot of registered Independents. As a registered independent, I had to switch to being a Democrat in order to win an election I am now back to being an independent but registered as a Republican in order to participate in the Republican Caucus. The value of the Iowa caucus process is that the majority of those who participate are also people who are willing , and do take the time to diligently research each candidate so that voters following that caucus have or can have a much clearer idea of who the candidates are, what they stand for and how middle/lower class but among the best educated and hardest working people in America view them and why. I voted for Newt Gingrich as the person who has the broadest spectrum of experience necessary to be president and who is the most conservative , both, fiscally and socially, the next closest would be Rick Santorum But Rick's conservatism is more as a social conservative as opposed to being a fiscal conservative. Rick Perry would be next and at this point, I just don't think he can manage the battle against Obama but if he does get to that point, I think he would make a Damn good President.
  • TruBluT... Mike Mc... 2012/01/04 21:05:02
    TruBluTopaz
    I think the caucus process is silly. Because someone, like yourself, can register for one party or another and thereby seriously impact the outcome is why we have such strange candidates. Nobody would have picked McCain. LIkewise, few will follow Ron Paul. But there's a group of independents hellbent on getting their guy in there no matter what. That has implications down the road. Especially if the delegates are bound to one candidate.
  • Mike Mc... TruBluT... 2012/01/05 07:05:47
    Mike McCullough
    That's an interesting part of the Iowa process, The Delegates are not bound. The Iowa caucus, if nothing else, causes serious scrutiny of candidates and by the way, you have to be supper smart to be a successful Farmer, and that's not all we do here. Education and Innovation have High marks in Iowa. Come visit our state, it's Great.
  • TruBluT... Mike Mc... 2012/01/10 02:44:58
    TruBluTopaz
    +1
    This is not the core of the argument. What I am discussing is how stilted and expensive the election process has become because we have this outdated, strung out calendar of primary dates. One Day, One Primary would eliminate much of the interference we have from a media that is on the take from whatever millionaire has a checkbook and a story to sell.
  • Mike Mc... TruBluT... 2012/01/10 04:07:17 (edited)
    Mike McCullough
    those points I can relate to and agree with. My responses were more in regards to my perception that what happens in IA is irrelevant because of the misperceptions as to who and what Iowans are. Thanks for the input.
  • A Founding Father 2012/01/04 04:53:52
    A Founding Father
    Who can really care what these underpopulated an undereducated states have to offer?
    Can you imagine how carefully the Chairman of Bank of America, or Rupert Murdoch, care what a bunch of corn farmers or cattlemen think of a stable of unstable "candidates"? The Chariman and Rupert already have their man in training and are meeting regularly to assure his loyalty to the programs the banks will find profitable. All of this is just theater to keep your attention on the "agenda" of defeating "Obama" in 2012.
  • Mike Mc... A Found... 2012/01/10 04:16:07
    Mike McCullough
    I don't care to argue the worthiness of Iowa to be the 1st in leading the charge for presidential races but I can assure you that Iowa is no longer a major Red state, as a matter of fact it has moved closer to being a blue one in terms of it's overall voting record. There are a lot of registered Independents. As a registered independent, I had to switch to being a Democrat in order to win an election I am now back to being an independent but registered as a Republican in order to participate in the Republican Caucus. The value of the Iowa caucus process is that the majority of those who participate are also people who are willing , and do take the time to diligently research each candidate so that voters following that caucus have or can have a much clearer idea of who the candidates are, what they stand for and how middle/lower class but among the best educated and hardest working people in America view them and why. I voted for Newt Gingrich as the person who has the broadest spectrum of experience necessary to be president and who is the most conservative , both, fiscally and socially, the next closest would be Rick Santorum But Rick's conservatism is more as a social conservative as opposed to being a fiscal conservative. Rick Perry would be next and at this point, I just ...
    I don't care to argue the worthiness of Iowa to be the 1st in leading the charge for presidential races but I can assure you that Iowa is no longer a major Red state, as a matter of fact it has moved closer to being a blue one in terms of it's overall voting record. There are a lot of registered Independents. As a registered independent, I had to switch to being a Democrat in order to win an election I am now back to being an independent but registered as a Republican in order to participate in the Republican Caucus. The value of the Iowa caucus process is that the majority of those who participate are also people who are willing , and do take the time to diligently research each candidate so that voters following that caucus have or can have a much clearer idea of who the candidates are, what they stand for and how middle/lower class but among the best educated and hardest working people in America view them and why. I voted for Newt Gingrich as the person who has the broadest spectrum of experience necessary to be president and who is the most conservative , both, fiscally and socially, the next closest would be Rick Santorum But Rick's conservatism is more as a social conservative as opposed to being a fiscal conservative. Rick Perry would be next and at this point, I just don't think he can manage the battle against Obama but if he does get to that point, I think he would make a Damn good President. Your points about Murdock etc' are well taken however and all of the campaign money could be much better spent.
    (more)
  • A Found... Mike Mc... 2012/01/10 04:28:43 (edited)
    A Founding Father
    Were it all donated to "Feed the Children" and the blowhards sent home to their wives, we would be better off and the world a better place. Every one of these pretenders could sum up their "positions" on one page, and then retire to be with their families and leave the rest of us to the same. What nonsense they repeat over and over, as if Paul could really being all the military home, or Santorum could really send all the illegal immigrants home, or Perry could really kill all the old folks in nursing homes, or Romney could really get Wall Street to return any jobs to the United State. Over and over they just tell these stories to simple minded listeners, who would believe Bachman's story that God was going to give her a "win" in Iowa. Are we really so stupid as to listen to this crap as if it meant anything?
  • den 2012/01/04 03:51:45
    den
    +1
    this is true in opther states also
  • Cyan9 2012/01/04 03:21:57
    Cyan9
    How does one of the most rural, least diverse and reddest states count as a bellweather?
  • Mike Mc... Cyan9 2012/01/10 04:18:40
    Mike McCullough
    I would suggest that this state is a lot more diverse than you believe and only pink at best. In fact there are some who would say we are a "rainbow" state.
  • Cyan9 Mike Mc... 2012/01/10 04:31:57
    Cyan9
    If you're referring to Iowa I would agree. However Oklahoma is one of the reddest nations in the country as can be demonstrated by it's voting record. It has one of the most Republican leaning Cook PVI, voted Republican in ever Presidential election since 1968, and is entirely represented by Republicans at the state and federal level. http://www.270towin.com/state... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
  • Mike Mc... Cyan9 2012/01/10 04:49:57
    Mike McCullough
    You got it. In all the process, we wast a lot of time effort and resources. Like Jeff Foxworthy eh. You might be a Red Neck If.. Just love it. (-:
  • Zuggi 2012/01/04 03:14:32
    Zuggi
    +1
    Ben Nelson is from Nebraska, not Oklahoma.

    Also, Oklahoma is about the reddest of red states. Using it for a national trend is like saying reduced Republicans in California would be a trend.
  • The Duke Zuggi 2012/01/04 04:21:35
    The Duke
    Reddest of red states? Surely you jest. As a lifetime Okie I know the state of Oklahoma to have been solidly Democrat for as far back as I can remember, and although I don't think an Okie coined the term "yellow dog Democrat", I know it has more than a few adherents in the Sooner State.

    But I do believe the majority vote for the candidate, not the party. I was registered as a Democrat for 30 years, but I voted for the national Democrat candidate exactly once in all that time.
  • Zuggi The Duke 2012/01/04 04:50:33
    Zuggi
    The Presidential elections average 65-35. That's a huge swing from the national vote.
  • TruBluT... Zuggi 2012/01/04 21:07:42
    TruBluTopaz
    But if you read the story (which obviously you did not) you would see that the majority of registered voters register as Democrats. So why are almost all state positions in OK held by Republicans? Answer: Because the current DNC leadership is almost completely composed of west coast bureaucrats from urban centers that do not care about rural concerns. These are the same people funneling billions into pork barrel urban programs while small towns are dying due to the loss of industry. Democrats don't get this. But farmers and ranchers do. And small town business people do. These are the votes they are losing.
  • Zuggi TruBluT... 2012/01/04 23:12:59
    Zuggi
    If the registration advantage meant anything, it would show in results. It obviously doesn't; what appears to be happening is that the lag in registrations catching up to results is finally happening.
  • keeper 2012/01/04 03:12:16
    keeper
    I sure hope they don't dig up some more dead voters!
  • TruBluT... keeper 2012/01/05 01:00:09
    TruBluTopaz
    +1
    That mainly happens in Chicago.

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