Oddsmaker on the 2012 election
Here is an opinion piece by Wayne Allyn Root...........Makes sense........Hope he's right..........
*Odds Maker's View of 2012 Election*
Most political predictions are made by biased pollsters, pundits,
or prognosticators who are either rooting for Republicans or
Democrats. I am neither. I am a former Libertarian Vice
Presidential nominee, and a well-known Vegas odds maker with one
of the most accurate records of predicting political races.
Neither Obama nor Romney are my horses in the race. I believe both
Republicans and Democrats have destroyed the U.S. economy and
brought us to the edge of economic disaster. My vote will go to
Libertarian Presidential candidate Gary Johnson in November, whom
I believe has the most fiscally conservative track record of any
Governor in modern U.S. political history. Without the bold
spending cuts of a Gary Johnson or Ron Paul, I don’t believe it’s
possible to turnaround America.
But as an odds maker with a pretty remarkable track record of
picking political races, I play no favorites. I simply use common
sense to call them as I see them. Back in late December I released
my New Year’s Predictions. I predicted back then- before a single
GOP primary had been held, with Romney trailing for months to
almost every GOP competitor from Rick Perry to Herman Cain to
Newt- that Romney would easily rout his competition to win the GOP
nomination by a landslide. I also predicted that the Presidential
race between Obama and Romney would be very close until election
day. But that on election day Romney would win by a landslide
similar to Reagan-Carter in 1980.
Understanding history, today I am even more convinced of a
resounding Romney victory. 32 years ago at this moment in time,
Reagan was losing by 9 points to Carter. Romney is right now
running even in polls. So why do most pollsters give Obama the edge?
First, most pollsters are missing one ingredient- common sense.
Here is my gut instinct. Not one American who voted for McCain 4
years ago will switch to Obama. Not one in all the land. But many
millions of people who voted for an unknown Obama 4 years ago are
angry, disillusioned, turned off, or scared about the future.
Voters know Obama now- and that is a bad harbinger.
Now to an analysis of the voting blocks that matter in U.S. politics:
*Black voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group.
His endorsement of gay marriage has alienated many black
church-going Christians. He may get 88% of their vote instead of
the 96% he got in 2008. This is not good news for Obama.
*Hispanic voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this
group. If Romney picks Rubio as his VP running-mate the GOP may
pick up an extra 10% to 15% of Hispanic voters (plus lock down
Florida). This is not good news for Obama.
*Jewish voters. Obama has been weak in his support of Israel. Many
Jewish voters and big donors are angry and disappointed. I predict
Obama's Jewish support drops from 78% in 2008 to the low 60’s.
This is not good news for Obama.
*Youth voters. Obama’s biggest and most enthusiastic believers
from 4 years ago have graduated into a job market from hell. Young
people are disillusioned, frightened, and broke- a bad
combination. The enthusiasm is long gone. Turnout will be much
lower among young voters, as will actual voting percentages. This
not good news for Obama.
*Catholic voters. Obama won a majority of Catholics in 2008. That
won’t happen again. Out of desperation to please women, Obama went
to war with the Catholic Church over contraception. Now he is
being sued by the Catholic Church. Majority lost. This is not good
news for Obama.
*Small Business owners. Because I ran for Vice President last time
around, and I'm a small businessman myself, I know literally
thousands of small business owners. At least 40% of them in my
circle of friends, fans and supporters voted for Obama 4 years ago
to “give someone different a chance.” I warned them that he would
pursue a war on capitalism and demonize anyone who owned a
business...that he’d support unions over the private sector in a
big way...that he'd overwhelm the economy with spending and debt.
My friends didn’t listen. Four years later, I can't find one
person in my circle of small business owner friends voting for
Obama. Not one. This is not good news for Obama.
*Blue collar working class whites. Do I need to say a thing? White
working class voters are about as happy with Obama as Boston Red
Sox fans feel about the New York Yankees. This is not good news
*Suburban moms. The issue isn’t contraception…it’s having a job to
pay for contraception. Obama’s economy frightens these moms. They
are worried about putting food on the table. They fear for their
children’s future. This is not good news for Obama.
*Military Veterans. McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney is
winning by 24 points. The more our military vets got to see of
Obama, the more they disliked him. This is not good news for Obama.
Add it up. Is there one major group where Obama has gained since
2008? Will anyone in America wake up on election day saying “I
didn’t vote for Obama 4 years ago. But he’s done such a fantastic
job, I can’t wait to vote for him today.” Does anyone feel that a
vote for Obama makes their job more secure?
Forget the polls. My gut instincts as a Vegas odds maker and
common sense small businessman tell me this will be a historic
landslide and a world-class repudiation of Obama’s radical and
risky socialist agenda. It's Reagan-Carter all over again.
But I’ll give Obama credit for one thing- he is living proof that
familiarity breeds contempt.
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