Oddsmaker on the 2012 election

Here is an opinion piece by Wayne Allyn Root...........Makes sense........Hope he's right..........

*Odds Maker's View of 2012 Election*

Most political predictions are made by biased pollsters, pundits,

or prognosticators who are either rooting for Republicans or

Democrats. I am neither. I am a former Libertarian Vice

Presidential nominee, and a well-known Vegas odds maker with one

of the most accurate records of predicting political races.

Neither Obama nor Romney are my horses in the race. I believe both

Republicans and Democrats have destroyed the U.S. economy and

brought us to the edge of economic disaster. My vote will go to

Libertarian Presidential candidate Gary Johnson in November, whom

I believe has the most fiscally conservative track record of any

Governor in modern U.S. political history. Without the bold

spending cuts of a Gary Johnson or Ron Paul, I don’t believe it’s

possible to turnaround America.

But as an odds maker with a pretty remarkable track record of

picking political races, I play no favorites. I simply use common

sense to call them as I see them. Back in late December I released

my New Year’s Predictions. I predicted back then- before a single

GOP primary had been held, with Romney trailing for months to

almost every GOP competitor from Rick Perry to Herman Cain to

Newt- that Romney would easily rout his competition to win the GOP

nomination by a landslide. I also predicted that the Presidential

race between Obama and Romney would be very close until election

day. But that on election day Romney would win by a landslide

similar to Reagan-Carter in 1980.

Understanding history, today I am even more convinced of a

resounding Romney victory. 32 years ago at this moment in time,

Reagan was losing by 9 points to Carter. Romney is right now

running even in polls. So why do most pollsters give Obama the edge?

First, most pollsters are missing one ingredient- common sense.

Here is my gut instinct. Not one American who voted for McCain 4

years ago will switch to Obama. Not one in all the land. But many

millions of people who voted for an unknown Obama 4 years ago are

angry, disillusioned, turned off, or scared about the future.

Voters know Obama now- and that is a bad harbinger.

Now to an analysis of the voting blocks that matter in U.S. politics:

*Black voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group.

His endorsement of gay marriage has alienated many black

church-going Christians. He may get 88% of their vote instead of

the 96% he got in 2008. This is not good news for Obama.

*Hispanic voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this

group. If Romney picks Rubio as his VP running-mate the GOP may

pick up an extra 10% to 15% of Hispanic voters (plus lock down

Florida). This is not good news for Obama.

*Jewish voters. Obama has been weak in his support of Israel. Many

Jewish voters and big donors are angry and disappointed. I predict

Obama's Jewish support drops from 78% in 2008 to the low 60’s.

This is not good news for Obama.

*Youth voters. Obama’s biggest and most enthusiastic believers

from 4 years ago have graduated into a job market from hell. Young

people are disillusioned, frightened, and broke- a bad

combination. The enthusiasm is long gone. Turnout will be much

lower among young voters, as will actual voting percentages. This

not good news for Obama.

*Catholic voters. Obama won a majority of Catholics in 2008. That

won’t happen again. Out of desperation to please women, Obama went

to war with the Catholic Church over contraception. Now he is

being sued by the Catholic Church. Majority lost. This is not good

news for Obama.

*Small Business owners. Because I ran for Vice President last time

around, and I'm a small businessman myself, I know literally

thousands of small business owners. At least 40% of them in my

circle of friends, fans and supporters voted for Obama 4 years ago

to “give someone different a chance.” I warned them that he would

pursue a war on capitalism and demonize anyone who owned a

business...that he’d support unions over the private sector in a

big way...that he'd overwhelm the economy with spending and debt.

My friends didn’t listen. Four years later, I can't find one

person in my circle of small business owner friends voting for

Obama. Not one. This is not good news for Obama.

*Blue collar working class whites. Do I need to say a thing? White

working class voters are about as happy with Obama as Boston Red

Sox fans feel about the New York Yankees. This is not good news

for Obama.

*Suburban moms. The issue isn’t contraception…it’s having a job to

pay for contraception. Obama’s economy frightens these moms. They

are worried about putting food on the table. They fear for their

children’s future. This is not good news for Obama.

*Military Veterans. McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney is

winning by 24 points. The more our military vets got to see of

Obama, the more they disliked him. This is not good news for Obama.

Add it up. Is there one major group where Obama has gained since

2008? Will anyone in America wake up on election day saying “I

didn’t vote for Obama 4 years ago. But he’s done such a fantastic

job, I can’t wait to vote for him today.” Does anyone feel that a

vote for Obama makes their job more secure?

Rights

Forget the polls. My gut instincts as a Vegas odds maker and

common sense small businessman tell me this will be a historic

landslide and a world-class repudiation of Obama’s radical and

risky socialist agenda. It's Reagan-Carter all over again.

But I’ll give Obama credit for one thing- he is living proof that

familiarity breeds contempt.