SunShine 2013/11/13 04:06:13

Prediction: even if HealthCare.gov is fixed by the end of the month (unlikely), Obamacare is going to be repealed well in advance of next year’s election. And if the website continues to fail, the push for repeal—from endangered Democrats—will occur very rapidly. The website is a sideshow: the real action is the number of people and businesses who are losing their health plans or having to pay a lot more. Fixing the website will only delay the inevitable.

It is important to remember why it was so important for Obama to promise repeatedly that “if you like your health insurance/doctor, you can keep your health insurance/doctor.” Cast your mind back to the ignominious collapse of Hillarycare in 1994. Hillarycare came out of the box in September 1993 to high public support according to the early polls. This was not a surprise. Opinion polls for decades have shown a large majority of Americans support the general idea of universal health coverage. But Hillarycare came apart as the bureaucratic details came out, the most important one being that you couldn’t be sure you’d be able to keep your doctors or select specialists of your choice. The Clintons refused to consider a compromise, but even with large Democratic Senate and House majorities the bill was so dead it was never brought up for a vote.

Remember “Harry and Louise”? Obama did, which is why he portrayed Obamacare as simply expanding coverage to the uninsured, and improving coverage for the underinsured while leaving the already insured undisturbed. But the redistributive arithmetic of Obamacare’s architecture could never add up, which is what the bureaucrats knew early on—as early as 2010 according to many documents that have leaked. The wonder is that Obama’s political team didn’t see this coming and prepare a pre-emptive strategy for dealing with the inevitable exposure of the duplicity at the heart of Obamacare’s logic. Now that people are losing their insurance and finding that they may not be able to keep their doctor after all, Obamacare has become the domestic policy equivalent of the Iraq War: a protracted fiasco that is proving fatal to a president’s credibility and approval rating. The only thing missing is calling in FEMA to help fix this Category-5 political disaster.

Senate Democrats endangered for re-election will lead the charge for repeal perhaps as soon as January, after they get an earful over the Christmas break. They’ll call it “reform,” and clothe it in calls for delaying the individual mandate and allowing people and businesses to keep their existing health insurance policies. But it is probably too late to go back in many cases. With the political damage guaranteed to continue, the momentum toward repeal will be unstoppable. Democrats will not want to face the voters next November with the albatross of Obamacare.

The politics of the repeal effort will be a game theorist’s dream. Tea Party Republicans will resist “reforms” to Obamacare in favor of complete repeal. Democrats will try to turn the tables and set up Republicans as obstacles to reform, hoping to inoculate themselves prospectively from mayhem at the polls next November. The House might want to insist that the Senate go first; after all, it was the Senate version of the bill that the House had to swallow after Scott Brown’s election in January 2010. The House can rightly insist that the Senate needs to clean up the mess they made. Obama may well give Capitol Hill Democrats a pass on a repeal vote, and veto any bill that emerges. He’ll never face the voters again.

This wouldn’t be the first time that a health care entitlement was repealed. The same thing happened in the late 1980s with catastrophic coverage for seniors. Because seniors were made to pay for their benefits under that scheme, the uproar forced Congress to repeal the measure barely a year after it went into effect. Obamacare looks to be on the same political trajectory, and for the same reason. Obamacare represents the crisis of big government; the limits of administrative government have finally been breached. For the first time ever, some polls are showing a majority of Americans doubting the goal of universal health coverage.

The hazard of the moment is that a compromise “reform” that drops the mandate and attempts to restore the insurance status quo ante could leave us with an unfunded expansion of Medicaid and a badly disrupted private insurance market. Republicans should avoid both the political traps and a new fiscal time bomb by being ready with a serious replacement policy, based on the premium support tax credit ideas that John McCain advocated (poorly) in 2008. While anxious liberals are in dismay, they should recognize that Obamacare may well have achieved its chief purpose of making universal or at least greatly expanded health coverage a fixture of American social policy. The cost to liberalism may prove fatal, however.


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  • HOMBRE 2013/11/13 04:16:06
    I see Some of Obama navigators got caught on tape telling people to lie on their applications signing up for Obamacare.It was on Hannity tonight

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  • brettw97 2013/11/13 21:42:07
    I'm not sure. Obama's never admitted defeat on anything and seems to enjoy the power trip. If its going to get replaced, it will take a major Democratic uprising, and they're only content with cosmetic changes to save them at the polls. The shift could continue further, but if they don't get it done by the spring, I don't see anyone willing to negotiate until the referendum/election results are in.
  • Quietman ~PWCM~JLA 2013/11/13 16:48:58
  • SunShine Quietma... 2013/11/13 21:53:50
    Good.. The more the merrier
  • Sheila 2013/11/13 16:12:44
    What even Clinton doesn't seem to get, or maybe he just doesn't think WE get it is this- The ones who have already lost their plans have LOST THEM. They are gone. Clinton acts like all O has to do is make it be so. Well he CAN'T. By his OWN law he CAN'T. Clinton made his statement to try to help his wife (or maybe his WINO) win the party's nomination in the next presidential election. And people are all like "YA! He needs to listen to Clinton" when Clinton knows he is spouting BS... Damn low info voters don't get it.
  • Temlakos~POTL~PWCM~JLA~☆ 2013/11/13 15:58:20
    I want to see it fail DURING the election.

    I want to get two-thirds majority constitutionalists in each chamber of Congress.
  • brettw97 Temlako... 2013/11/13 21:54:47
  • The Amazin' Guru of Chibis 2013/11/13 12:02:53
    The Amazin' Guru of Chibis
    Such a waste. I'm thinking about the people who are being hurt by this. Who suddenly found themselves without insurance.
  • dubbie 2013/11/13 11:40:37
    It`s one thing for obamacare to collapse , But what America needs to focus on is to see liberalism collapse right along with it , They've have one bill after another to destroy the American dream, from Amnesty to fraudulent climate control scheme . Its not that hard to see these people have no concern whatsoever for your livelihood , The greed for all out power is their only concern.
  • Patrick Henry~PWCM~JL 2013/11/13 05:18:37
    Patrick Henry~PWCM~JL
    One can only hope that it fails in a spectacular fashion.
  • Rodney 2013/11/13 04:55:32
    Yup, the natives are already getting restless. I'm saddened that it takes the possible death of their careers to spark interest in what's best for the citizens, but if that's what it takes, then so be it. Doesn't alter my belief that we need to replace every last one of the democrats who blindly voted for this damn foolish thing as well as every career politicians who has lost all touch with reality.
  • Gracie - Proud Conservative 2013/11/13 04:20:19
    Gracie - Proud Conservative
    That would be a great step back to sanity!
  • HOMBRE 2013/11/13 04:16:06
    I see Some of Obama navigators got caught on tape telling people to lie on their applications signing up for Obamacare.It was on Hannity tonight
  • SunShine HOMBRE 2013/11/13 04:17:35
    being as they were from ACORN.. does it surprise you??
  • HOMBRE SunShine 2013/11/13 04:23:07
    I thought I was listening to a old ACORN tape.unbelievable.Again Obama unaware of it just like the people that were involved in IRS scandal.Obama saying when he finds out that the people will be held accountable.Whats it been a year and still nobody held accountable.Some how the clown is not believable.Ya think?
  • SunShine HOMBRE 2013/11/13 06:39:06
    right.. totally NOT
  • UGH...L... HOMBRE 2013/11/13 04:23:08
    UGH...LIBS ~ PWCM ~ JLA ~ BttB ~
    Hey, the ACORN people need jobs, don't they?
  • HOMBRE UGH...L... 2013/11/13 04:25:31
    Hannity named half dozen of fraud libtarded organizations that work for Obama all involved in some sort of shenanigans.
  • UGH...L... HOMBRE 2013/11/13 04:28:15
    UGH...LIBS ~ PWCM ~ JLA ~ BttB ~
    That's the Chicago gangster way.
  • HOMBRE UGH...L... 2013/11/13 04:56:50
  • UGH...L... HOMBRE 2013/11/13 05:00:37
  • SunShine HOMBRE 2013/11/13 07:32:52
  • SunShine UGH...L... 2013/11/13 06:39:34
    lol.. ya.. I thought a lot of them should be in jail.
  • fish 2013/11/13 04:12:56 (edited)
    Awesome, so people who had insurance policies that they liked and could afford will find themselves most likely stuck with a more expensive plan anyway-because the insurance companies sure as hell are not going to back pedal. People with pre-existing conditions will get booted back off, hospitals and doctors are going to suffer financial whiplash, and Medicaid will have double the number of enrollees without the $$ to pay for them. Trainwreck.....freakin.... trainwreck.
  • SunShine fish 2013/11/13 04:17:15
    we'll fix it.. but a lot of folks are going to suffer meantime.. sadly
  • UGH...L... fish 2013/11/13 04:26:06
    UGH...LIBS ~ PWCM ~ JLA ~ BttB ~
    The Obama Limited just pulled into the station.

  • keeper 2013/11/13 04:10:31
    It will fail big time...

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