Obama will win in November, Americans predict
of of Americans say President Barack Obama will win re-election, the
Gallup polling organization said Tuesday, drily calling that prediction
"perhaps a slightly more optimistic assessment than is currently
Thirty-six percent say presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney will be the one taking the oath of office in January.
Party affiliation shapes whether
Americans are bullish or bearish on the odds of another term for Obama:
81 percent of Democrats but just 24 percent of Republicans predict he'll
pull it off. But 58 percent of Independents agreed, compared to just 31
percent who said Romney would get the keys to the White House.
Gallup's latest daily tracking poll found the incumbent and the
challenger in a dead heat, with Obama up a statistically meaningless 46
percent to 45 percent over Romney.
"It may be that Americans recognize the advantages Obama has as the
incumbent and that historically, presidents seeking re-election usually
win," according to Gallup's analysis.
"Americans currently see Obama as a solid favorite to win
re-election. This is perhaps a slightly more optimistic assessment than
is currently warranted, given that registered voters' candidate
preferences are evenly split between Obama and Romney," Gallup said.
Obama's job approval ratings have
hovered below 50 percent in various surveys, a dangerously low level
for an incumbent seeking re-election.
"However, Americans have
typically given an edge to the incumbent in years in which a president
was seeking re-election," the organization said.
The survey had an error margin of plus or minus two percentage points.
Of course polls really mean nothing it's the voter who make it to the polls that matter
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