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Obama Job approval average slides to new low

Birthpangs 2011/10/22 13:47:29
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Obama Job Approval Average Slides to New Low in 11th Quarter

Prior low was 45% in his seventh quarter


by Jeffrey M. Jones


PRINCETON, NJ -- President Barack Obama's 11th quarter in office was the worst of his administration, based on his quarterly average job approval ratings. His 41% approval average is down six percentage points from his 10th quarter in office, and is nearly four points below his previous low of 45% during his seventh quarter.


Barack Obama's Quarterly Job Approval Averages


These results are based on Gallup Daily tracking from July 20-Oct. 19, 2011. During this time, Obama's approval rating ranged narrowly between 38% and 43% for all but a few days of the quarter. The 38% approval ratings, registered on several occasions, are the lowest of his presidency to date.


The most notable event in Obama's 11th quarter was probably the negotiations to raise the federal debt ceiling in late July and early August. Shortly after the agreement was reached, the stock market plummeted after Standard and Poor's downgraded the U.S. credit rating. Later, the government's jobs report showed no new net jobs were created in August, a sign the economy was still a long way from recovery. The president has been unsuccessful so far in getting Congress to pass the jobs bill he proposed in early September.


Obama's 11th Quarter Weak From Historical Perspective


Only one elected president since Dwight D. Eisenhower, Jimmy Carter, had a lower 11th quarter average than Obama. Carter averaged 31% during his 11th quarter, which was marked by a poor economy and high energy prices. Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton were the only other post-World War II presidents whose job approval averages were below 50% in their 11th quarter in office.


Eleventh-Quarter Job Approval Averages of Elected Presidents, Eisenhower-Obama


Notably, Reagan's and Clinton's popular support recovered and both were elected to a second term. Carter's support also improved in the short term, thanks to a rally in approval after the Iranian hostage crisis began, but as that crisis dragged on and the economy remained weak, his approval rating eventually declined before he was defeated in the 1980 election.


Obama's re-election prospects should become clearer in the coming months, because Gallup analysis shows that an incumbent president's 12th- and 13th-quarter averages give a strong indication of whether he will win a second term.


From a broader historical perspective, Obama's 11th-quarter approval average of 41% ranks 220th out of the 262 presidential quarters for which Gallup has data since the Truman administration. That translates to the 16th percentile, placing it in the bottom fifth of presidential quarters. Thus, Obama's recent approval ratings are well below average.


Obama's approval rating for his entire term to date now averages 50%.


Implications


President Obama's most recent quarter in office was his worst to date, and these lower levels of public support could put his re-election chances in peril unless things start to improve in the next few months. Currently, voters say they are more likely to vote for "the Republican candidate" than for Obama for president in 2012, though Obama has generally looked stronger when matched against actual Republican candidates like Mitt Romney or Rick Perry.


Americans' satisfaction with the direction of the country remains at historically low levels, and Americans clearly identify the economy and unemployment as the most important problems facing the United States. Thus, a second Obama term likely hinges on whether there are signs of economic progress in the coming months.

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Top Opinion

  • JoeBtfsplk 2011/10/22 14:00:29
    No big surprise. The USS Obama is a sinking ship.
    JoeBtfsplk
    +3
    i wish i felt reassured, that he, will be a one term POTUS.
    my second worry is that we replace him with a like minded traitor/progressive/socialist /take your pick!

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  • jasmine1 2011/10/23 02:10:37
    No big surprise. The USS Obama is a sinking ship.
    jasmine1
    +1
    This is really good news. I hope it just gets better.
  • Annie~Pro American~Pro Israel 2011/10/22 22:23:22
    No big surprise. The USS Obama is a sinking ship.
    Annie~Pro American~Pro Israel
    +2
    I'm surprised Obama even has 41% approval. Thats scary that so many are still asleep.
  • Bigdeal 2011/10/22 17:57:35
    No big surprise. The USS Obama is a sinking ship.
    Bigdeal
    +1
    He need to find a job for himself if he can
  • mwg0735 2011/10/22 17:09:42
  • Concerned Citizen 2011/10/22 16:04:22
    No big surprise. The USS Obama is a sinking ship.
    Concerned Citizen
    +2
    He's just unqualified,.. and in way over his head!

    real
  • Diane 2011/10/22 15:48:39
    Other
    Diane
    And yet, he's still beating his closest competitor in the Republican primary, Romney, by an average of 1.6 points 45.8 to 44.2. He's beating Ron Paul by 6.2 points. He's beating Cain by 6.6 points, he's beating Perry by 11 points.

    http://www.realclearpolitics....

    Congress has an approval rating of only 12.8%...

    http://www.realclearpolitics....

    and the majority prefer the Democrats over the Republicans.

    http://www.realclearpolitics....
  • Birthpangs Diane 2011/10/22 16:02:39
  • Diane Birthpangs 2011/10/23 00:21:30
    Diane
    I know, and yet he's beating every Republican candidate in the polls. Isn't that funny? People dislike the Republicans even more. lol
  • Birthpangs Diane 2011/10/23 00:23:31
  • Diane Birthpangs 2011/10/23 00:25:47
    Diane
    Only because all the Republican candidates are clowns.
  • Birthpangs Diane 2011/10/23 20:30:29
  • Diane Birthpangs 2011/10/23 23:59:55 (edited)
    Diane
    Did I attack you personally? Your personal attack on me is UNCALLED FOR!

    I block people who attack me personally, so goodbye!
  • keeper 2011/10/22 15:00:02
    No big surprise. The USS Obama is a sinking ship.
    keeper
  • ronbo51 2011/10/22 14:59:26
    No big surprise. The USS Obama is a sinking ship.
    ronbo51
    +1
    sad obama clown

    sooo sad! dont you just feel sorry for him????

     NOT
  • Charge 2011/10/22 14:55:03
    No big surprise. The USS Obama is a sinking ship.
    Charge
    +1
    This is backed up by Obama begging for applause for his jobs bill in front of firemen..... He has shown that his agenda is anti-American and a total failure.
  • Birthpangs Charge 2011/10/22 14:57:27
  • Charge Birthpangs 2011/10/22 15:13:49
    Charge
    +1
    Wow, that would be a hoot!
  • mrscas 2011/10/22 14:13:53
    No big surprise. The USS Obama is a sinking ship.
    mrscas
    +1
    I think he is going down but I don't trust him. I believe his presidency was bought.
  • Birthpangs mrscas 2011/10/22 14:18:36
  • mrscas Birthpangs 2011/10/22 14:21:18
    mrscas
    +1
    You better be right.....LOL. I am counting on your wisdom. :)
  • Birthpangs mrscas 2011/10/22 14:34:12
  • Dale 2011/10/22 14:07:51
    No big surprise. The USS Obama is a sinking ship.
    Dale
    +1
    It would seem from recent past that the campaign of Incumbent has the specter of President Carter's failed re-election campaign hanging heavily overhead.
  • Birthpangs Dale 2011/10/22 14:11:53
  • JoeBtfsplk 2011/10/22 14:00:29
    No big surprise. The USS Obama is a sinking ship.
    JoeBtfsplk
    +3
    i wish i felt reassured, that he, will be a one term POTUS.
    my second worry is that we replace him with a like minded traitor/progressive/socialist /take your pick!
  • Birthpangs JoeBtfsplk 2011/10/22 14:06:46
  • JoeBtfsplk Birthpangs 2011/10/22 14:13:09
    JoeBtfsplk
    whoa!

    you imply he will stay in office? or - he will run but won't cross the finish line?
  • Birthpangs JoeBtfsplk 2011/10/22 14:59:53
  • JoeBtfsplk Birthpangs 2011/10/22 15:05:08
    JoeBtfsplk
    +1
    im taking that to the bank
  • Rocky 2011/10/22 13:48:57 (edited)
    No big surprise. The USS Obama is a sinking ship.
    Rocky
    +3
    As Jim Nabors was wont to say..."SURPRISE! SURPRISE! SURPRISE!"
  • Birthpangs 2011/10/22 13:48:36

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