Mr. L: Why Either Romney or Obama 2012 Wins Could Lead to Palin 2016

New York-based Mr. L's Tavern known for hard-hitting, blunt political analysis yesterday released a video delineating how a 2012 win by either Obama or Romney could lead to a Palin 2016 candidacy. "Voters may deliver Romney a decisive victory, not because they love Romney, but simply because they fear another four years of Obama. Hope & Change became Smear & Fear in four short years. Voters are tired of the Obama administration's lawlessness, arrogance, lies and want this long four year national nightmare of Obama to be OVER. But what are we getting with Romney? Many believe that while Romney may slow the bleed of Obama, the Romney administration may fall short of saving America," Mr. L said.

Gov. Palin has repeatedly advanced the position of "Anybody but Obama," and by the logic of that argument, Romney is part of "anybody." Indeed, Gov. Palin has also repeatedly said she would support him if he became the nominee and on June 19 as reported by Josh Painter, "left no doubt that she’s supporting Romney in the general election, and she said that 'if that vote were held today,' she will vote for him 'in a heartbeat' over Obama."

Mr. L pointed out that it is only the "anybody but Obama" sentiment that can propel Romney to victory. Romney would not win under ordinary circumstances, Mr. L said. If - and the operative word is "if" - Romney governs left of center or proves to be ineffective, he would be vulnerable to a Palin challenge in 2016. Mr. L theorized that a Romney win in 2012 would be advantageous to a Palin 2016 run, because the GOP field would be less crowded. Conversely, an Obama win would result in a more crowded GOP field. Though enemy pundits would no doubt belittle Gov. Palin for daring to challenge the incumbent, she would be in a strong position to run, Mr. L asserted. If Obama wins, Gov. Palin would also be in a very strong person to win a 2016 election, but would face a much more crowded, but weak GOP field. Obama would be a lame duck and the Democratic field would be very weak. Mr. L asserted that Hillary Clinton is not going to run in 2016, since she is now considered damaged goods by her association with Obama's administration. Further, Mr. L said Clinton did a poor job as Secretary of State, aiding Syria's Assad who is massacring innocent civilians.

Mr. L is no Romney supporter. To the contrary, he devoted a video to explaining why he won't "Rah Rah" the former Massachusetts governor, and why he might not even vote for him. In yet another video, he details a shouting match he had on the phone with a Romney fund-raiser.

But Mr. L also has a few choice words for a small cadre of Palinistas who assert that they "know Gov. Palin is running and will be the nominee in Tampa" or alternatively "start a third party run." Disagree with them and you're accused of supporting Romney and being a traitor to Gov. Palin, among other things. Toxic debates relating to a Palin 2012 candidacy launched in Tampa rage on some Palin support pages and comment boards.

In that audio broadcast, Mr. L mercilessly condemned the people who engage in this irrational behavior, calling out two in particular who falsely accused him and another colleague - Isabel Matos - of "banning all mention of Sarah Palin" on their Facebook pages. Toward that broadcast's conclusion, Mr. L explains that when we support Gov. Palin by our volunteerism or donations, we should not expect a specific result in return. We support her because we believe in her. He explains how she campaigned in Alaska, and her discomfort with pursuing large donors, because they do expect a payback in some form.

Though it seems strange to discuss what could happen in 2016 with 2012 still in a primary season, what happens now does influence the future. In any case, as Palinistas we have a responsibility to ensure that we do not hold our "coulds" out to be statements of fact, and that we operate from a basis of reality.