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MIT Study predicts "Global Great Depression" by the year 2030. Do you agree with their findings?

Assassin~ Badass Buzz Guru 2012/04/05 13:00:45
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The next Great depression on a global scale? Sounds farfetched but that is exactly what MIT researchers are predicting . The new study says that the world could suffer from "global economic collapse" and "precipitous population decline" if we don't stop consuming the worlds resources at such an alarming rate.

When will this Great Depression take place? There is the frightening part of the prediction. The MIT research indicates it would happen by the year 2030. This is not something they are predicting for the far off distant future but something that will happen within the next 18 years.

Next Great Depression? MIT researchers predict ‘global economic collapse’ by 2030 | The Sideshow - Yahoo! News

How did they come up with prediction? They created a computing model that showed different scenarios based on the current models of population growth and current consumption levels. The study also factored in different levels of agricultural productivity, birth control, and the current environmental protection efforts.

The results were disturbing. The majority of the scenario's they ran came up with the same thing. The growth continuing until about 2030, and then declining. They predict an economic and population crash. In short, the global economy will fail and massive amounts of people will die.



One of the most striking things about the study is that the current study predicts scenarios nearly IDENTICAL to those predicted in similar computer scenarios used as the model for "The Limits to Growth" Which was done back in 1972.

Read More: http://www.theverbalassassin.net/2012/04/05/mit-st...

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  • ur XLNC-PWCM 2012/04/05 13:55:40 (edited)
    Yes I agree.
    ur XLNC-PWCM
    +4
    I was going to DISAGREE, and then I re-read the question and saw the word "BY". Since the people that 'operate' the economy....as in the various banks, like the fed, the World bank and such are major contributors to the recent and current financial disruption to the economy, there is no reason to think they will change for EVERYONE'S benefit, as opposed to what 'works for them'. I think it will happen sooner.

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  • peter.mizla 2012/06/18 00:24:38
    Yes I agree.
    peter.mizla
    The policies of a consumption based economy for economic growth are almost over. What many here have failed to add into the equation for this abyss is climate change. C02 levels are soaring (near 400ppm) the highest in millions of years. The extreme weather we have seen will become worse. Droughts, crop failures, catastrophic weather events- costing billions will eventually bankrupt us. The science has become ever more clear-those who ignore- will face a very dangerous future.
  • abycinnamon BN-1 2012/04/07 23:11:35 (edited)
    No I do not agree
    abycinnamon BN-1
    Far be it from me to argue with the gurus at hallowed MIT (amen), but it has been my experience that trying to predict something as unpredictable as the economy that far ahead is fraught with hazard. However, I have not read the study as yet, and not being an economist I probably wouldn't understand it anyway.

    On the other hand, now that I have read what you have written more carefully, I do think that we are going to kill ourselves off given the destruction we are wreaking on our home. I don't know that I think it will happen that quickly, but of course I haven't done any modeling.
  • Classical Liberal 2012/04/06 01:45:11
    No I do not agree
    Classical Liberal
    All these economists who plug numbers into theoretical models probably believe that being good at chess means you would be an excellent commanding officer in the military.

    Perhaps they have calculated the limits to socialist growth, in which the economy is rigidly structured and individuals have little choice in their economic affairs or management of natural resources. But not in a capitalist system, which is highly unpredictable beyond basic general rules that haven't changed since the Wealth of Nations was published in 1776.
  • TerryAgee 2012/04/05 23:16:21
    No I do not agree
    TerryAgee
    Their study ignores a 30% reduction in military spending. Doing that would fund many social programs instead of more wars.
  • Franklin 2012/04/05 21:29:19
    No I do not agree
    Franklin
    18 years from now ? More like 18 to 30 months from now ! LOL with the USA falling behind on oil production and demand going up at a rate of 150% per year for the past 4 years ....in a nutshell the USA economy will fail in less than 4 years all together the rest of the world will falter and fail shortly after that -
  • #Justice4Trayvon 629 BLOCKT... 2012/04/05 20:55:28
    Yes I agree.
    #Justice4Trayvon 629 BLOCKT CONS
    Especially if the Corporate Oligarchs aren't dealt with. The entire Republican party & a portion of the Democratic party has been bought off. Glass-Steagall should have been reinstated but it wasn't. Dodd-Frank doesn't go far enough. Graham-Leach-Bliley should have been repealed. There still isn't anything in place legislatively to deal with the rampant speculation on commodities. Oil companies that have been making multiplied BILLIONS in PURE PROFIT are still getting taxpayer money. I could go on & on but I'll stop here for the time being.
  • Brian ☮ R P ☮ 2012 ☮ 2012/04/05 20:35:09
    Yes I agree.
    Brian ☮ R P ☮ 2012 ☮
    +1
    I look for it to be much sooner than by 2030. My best estimate is sometime before 2020, but that estimate is based mostly on the ever increasing impending feeling of doom I've been experiencing, over the economic indicators observed during the last decade or so.
  • Franklin Brian ☮... 2012/04/05 21:33:31
    Franklin
    I place the date of the US economy crashing closer to 1016 as by 2014 the federal budget will be over 5.3 trillion and our GDP (with out printing money) is less than 12 trillion ..when you add in the 26 states that are bankrupt right now and the spending next year by state governments of 4.5 trillion dollars ......making it 2 more years with out a default is a long shot.
  • SamFox 2012/04/05 19:45:02
    Yes I agree.
    SamFox
    I agree that a big collapse is coming. I think it will happen before 2030. I am sure the USA, if kept on our current financial course, will be down the drain before then.

    If we elect another 0 like we elected another Bush, we are toast. The USA is close to a total collapse now. I doubt that it will take much longer for the Collapse The [US] System agenda to fully destroy the US financial system.

    Mitt, Rick & Newt are 3 big govt stooges. I have little hope that if one of them gets in all we will have done is replaced 0 with another big govt 'clone'. All 3 of these clowns are big govt. Newt is in the CFR.

    Ron Paul is the only candidate i the R 'party' line up who is out side the establishment big party central planning box.

    SamFox
  • SamFox SamFox 2012/04/05 19:49:27
    SamFox
    Let me clarify this sentence.

    " I have little hope that if one of them gets in all we will have done is replaced 0 with another big govt 'clone'. "

    Re word: I have little hope that if one of them gets in much will change, as we will have replaced 0 with another big govt 'clone'. Like we did with 0, a Bush 'clone'.

    Much better! :-)

    SamFox
  • Franklin SamFox 2012/04/06 10:42:24
    Franklin
    so you don't feel any guilt at all about having voted for Obama last time do you .
  • sjalan 2012/04/05 18:04:41
    Yes I agree.
    sjalan
    +1
    Matches my predictions almost to the letter. The only thing they left out is the cause of the population decline and the scale of the decline. They really didn't want to scare people too much.

    My predictions say summer of 2028 will be the tipping point with the onset of a massive global flu like illness that will wipe out about 2 billion of the then 8-9 billion souls on the planet at the time.

    When this happens, the consumption of goods and services will begin an ever increasing decline. DEFLATION and economic contraction will lead to reductions in work forces. It will be self-filling in that the decline will rapidly become a head long plunge into the abyss of total social decline. The net numbers will in approximately 7 years be over 8 billion dead and regression to an anarchical society until we can turn it around. BUT THAT WON'T HAPPEN.
    i
    The decline will continue until there are about 11-15 million souls left and we will become an agricultural society again, losing all that we have accomplished for 1000's of years.

    It is my estimation that this has happened at least once before if not twice or three times. New archeological finds are proving that there was at about 15000 years ago a very great worldwide civilization which collapsed for no apparent reason other than the legend of a great flood at about 7000 years ago.

    Word to the wise -- Invest in land away from the cities and become totally self- sufficient.
  • 3003573 2012/04/05 17:33:56
  • William 2012/04/05 17:31:10
    Yes I agree.
    William
    +1
    It'll be sooner than that. I'm hoping it will hold off 'til 2014.
  • Raven J... William 2012/09/04 03:31:39
    Raven Johnson
    +4
    What difference does that make? It'll be the end of the line for you and all. All my neighbors are armed to the teeth and ready to start killing on a grand scale when the SHTF. It's going to be all-out destruction and total mayhem. The end of everything.
  • susan 2012/04/05 17:17:19
    Yes I agree.
    susan
    +1
    I tend to agree, but it will depend upon how this country votes in November, 2012. There are still some fiscal conservatives that are making a difference. Canada, for example, has turned its economy around.
  • Raven J... susan 2012/09/04 03:37:48
    Raven Johnson
    +2
    The united states is absolutely doomed. Hundreds of painstaking studies have all arrived at this conclusion. Anyone thinking of trying to make a stand should have their head examined. If parents love their children, they will have them put to sleep before the SHTF, which will be VERY soon. All will be panicking as the food supply runs out, gas, electricity, heat, etc will be unavailable. Unimaginable madness and mayhem is coming. The worst is yet to come. Billions are going to DIE very soon. If you aren't insane with fear, then you just aren't paying attention.
  • jackolantyrn356 2012/04/05 17:12:18
    Yes I agree.
    jackolantyrn356
    +2
    Getting rid of Obama is the 1st step in stopping it. The Marxist way always turns everything they touch into Cambodia and the days of POL POT. A tome in which almost 80 %of the people were tortured and murdered.
  • Assassi... jackola... 2012/04/05 17:47:59
    Assassin~ Badass Buzz Guru
    +2
    You honestly think a poltical Messiah can save us? LOL
  • Boris D. 2012/04/05 17:09:23
    No I do not agree
    Boris D.
    +1
    Not for the reasons they specify - resource consumption. They came up with the conclusion they wanted to sell their proposed solution ..."drastic measures for environmental protection" which will severely limit our productivity leading us faster to their outcome.

    Do you know what other democrat policies lead to economic collapse (all of them)...

    According to the CBO, public debt will be larger than the entire US economy by 2023. The CBO model show the standard of living beginning to decline by 2015 and the economic model completely breaks down by 2027.
  • Franklin Boris D. 2012/04/06 10:49:28
    Franklin
    I saw that but much like the math that said Obama care would only cost us 50 billion a year starting in 2014 / when its really 200 billion a year the math used to show a decline starting years from now is faulty – It like Obama's budget projections shows us not declining now (fails to account for government cost rising while wadges are flat and jobless rate is the worst in 67 years ) and it projects larger GDP gains that we have any hope of seeing ...in other words the dates of our collapse are much closer than those set forth by the CBO
  • Raven J... Boris D. 2012/09/04 03:47:20
    Raven Johnson
    +1
    It has been proven beyond any shadow of a doubt that the united states is 100% doomed, and will not exist in 10 years. Google "SHTF" and you'll begin to get a hint of an idea of the mind-boggling scale of the unprecedented catastrophe that is approaching like an unstoppable freight train in the night. There will be death & destruction like the world has never seen before. More than all the wars of history combined. There will be weeping. There will be screaming. There will be panic. There will be MAYHEM. The END is near.
  • dkoppy 2012/04/05 16:27:50
    No I do not agree
    dkoppy
    +1
    at least I hope not
  • rt 2012/04/05 16:13:56
    Yes I agree.
    rt
    +2
    It will happen long before 2030 if Obama doesn't win re-election. The Republicans see it coming that is why they are trying to put as much money into the pockets of the rich as they can so when it does happen the world can return to a master/slave society.
  • Flamdingo 2012/04/05 15:51:23
    Yes I agree.
    Flamdingo
    +3
    Yes I agree, although with the Libs in charge I think it will happen much sooner than 2030 at the rate we are going now I think it will happen within the next 5 years.
  • Reichstolz 2012/04/05 15:33:33
    No I do not agree
    Reichstolz
    +1
    It will be much sooner than 2030, with what we are seeing now I would contend we don't make it past 2015.
  • Max 2012/04/05 15:32:02
    No I do not agree
    Max
    +3
    We will be lucky to make it through the year.
  • Rebel Yell 2012/04/05 15:11:00
    Yes I agree.
    Rebel Yell
    +2
    Sure, it will happen . Currently there is a huge disconnect between the rate of birth and the rate of death. The human population will increase by 1 billion people in the next decade. This is like adding the whole population of China to the world's population. During the past 10 years, the world's food production has increased by 24 %, outpacing the rate of population growth but this increase was not evenly distributed throughout the world. In Africa, food production decreased, while population increased. And world cereal production fell in the early 90's causing a food shortage in 20 countries.

    Throw in high fertility rates always strongly correlated with poverty. And what does today's far right Republican crazies advocate.... they believe a pregnant woman in the kitchen is a happy one.
  • Dave0626 2012/04/05 15:01:32
    No I do not agree
    Dave0626
    +2
    The prediction is possible, but only if extenuating future conditions are not present. That is to say, natural or man-made disasters never occur to reduce the population numbers. Or any other environmental changes. The study is only reflective of current resources and technologies, and not factoring in future evolves. For example, between now and 18 years, a new form of energy could replace our current forms being used. Or even a new food consumption model to supersede current food dependencies. Not to mention whole populations departing the earths stratosphere....
    model supersede current food dependencies mention populations departing earths stratosphere
  • registeredNYer 2012/04/05 14:56:51
    Yes I agree.
    registeredNYer
    +2
    Our current monetary system can't be sustained indefinitely... in 1800 an expensive mens suit cost $2.00 today that suit would cost $2000.00 so what happens in another 50 years?The same can be said of everything we buy and sell we just cannot stay on this train it is leading to oblivion.
  • U-Dog 2012/04/05 14:55:10
    No I do not agree
    U-Dog
    +1
    It will happen even sooner if we stick to the suicidal plan of currency destruction and more top down thugernment egg-spurts running everything in the economy. Get the fear mongering control freaks and false shortage parasites out of the way, stop them from sucking the private sector dry, let people in the free market innovate and do what they do best and things will be just fine.
  • ed 2012/04/05 14:50:22
    No I do not agree
    ed
    +1
    I disagree ,if obama gets a second term it will happen then not later on .
  • Murph 65 2012/04/05 14:14:14
    No I do not agree
    Murph 65
    +2
    I think they're being generous on the time line. I think it's a whole lot closer than 2030.
  • santa6642 2012/04/05 14:02:59
    Yes I agree.
    santa6642
    +1
    As the liberal disease spreds it destroyes liberty and freedom where ever it lands.
  • Assassi... santa6642 2012/04/05 14:07:00 (edited)
    Assassin~ Badass Buzz Guru
    Yawwwwn

    Try to look at the big picture.
  • Reichstolz Assassi... 2012/04/05 15:37:48
  • Assassi... Reichstolz 2012/04/05 17:49:27
    Assassin~ Badass Buzz Guru
    +1
    No. That is still just the US. I said think GLOBALLY
  • Reichstolz Assassi... 2012/04/05 17:51:43
    Reichstolz
    +1
    globally the picture is far worse. I know wiki isn't a properly vetted source but look at the graph of debt to GDP throughout the world. Scary times.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
  • Steve J~PWCM~JLA 2012/04/05 13:58:15
    No I do not agree
    Steve J~PWCM~JLA
    +2
    Mass
    Idiotic
    Tinkers (not thinkers)

    How many studies have predicted catastrophe from over population and famine? 30? 50? In what years? 60's? 80's? Soon, real soon!!!!!!

    LMAO

    Catastrophe will be economic from creating money to fund promises that can't possible be kept, and it is coming to a home near you MUCH SOONER!!!!!!!

    Unless, Government gets the h*ll out of Banking, Healthcare, Business, your panties and BVD's, your homes and pockets. Unless Government starts telling the truth and stops their free for all spending that will bankrupt the Prosperous people on the planet bankrupting and eliminating all gains in the underdeveloped countries.

    Just saying.
  • ur XLNC-PWCM 2012/04/05 13:55:40 (edited)
    Yes I agree.
    ur XLNC-PWCM
    +4
    I was going to DISAGREE, and then I re-read the question and saw the word "BY". Since the people that 'operate' the economy....as in the various banks, like the fed, the World bank and such are major contributors to the recent and current financial disruption to the economy, there is no reason to think they will change for EVERYONE'S benefit, as opposed to what 'works for them'. I think it will happen sooner.

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