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Methinks the bloom is off the Romney rose.

CuppaT Child of God 2012/06/21 13:21:12

Visual source: Newseum


Nate Silver on the 13 point Obama lead in the latest Bloomberg poll:


Either of these approaches [ignore it, or accept it, use it carefully, and move on] is preferable to overreacting to the poll. Some news outlets reacted with surprise to the Bloomberg poll because, they claimed, it defied the conventional wisdom that Mr. Obama had been having a bad month. However, the conventional wisdom is not always worth very much. Legitimately important events like the release of a jobs report are combined with trivialities involving Mr. Obama’s semantics. A misleadingly edited clip about remarks that Mr. Romney made at a hoagie restaurant received about as much coverage in political news outlets as the crucial parliamentary elections that Greece held over the weekend.

The problem with overreacting is that it usually begets an equal and opposite overreaction later on. If the conventional wisdom has been that Mr. Obama has been having a bad few weeks, there will be other points between now and November when the same is said of Mr. Romney, and perhaps with equally thin evidence.

The conventional wisdom has been unsurprisingly stupid, with reporters falling all over themselves about Obama saying the private sector was doing fine relative to the public sector (yes, those five contextual words at the end are important) while ignoring that a) the non-GOP voters don't like Romney and b) what Obama said is true. In fact, that's the main message from the Bloomberg poll (Romney sucks), even if you ignore the horse race numbers:
The survey shows Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, has yet to repair the damage done to his image during the Republican primary. Thirty-nine percent of Americans view him favorably, about the same as when he announced his presidential candidacy last June, while 48 percent see him unfavorably -- a 17-percentage point jump during a nomination fight dominated by attacks ads. A majority of likely voters, 55 percent, view him as more out of touch with average Americans compared with 36 percent who say the president is more out of touch.
Still, the best advice is: wait for other polls to refute or confirm. But remember this is the same pollster that took heat for predicting an Obama win in Iowa in 2008:
Between the release of her final Iowa caucus poll on Monday and the announcement of results last night, J. Ann Selzer could only wait — and absorb the criticism from aggrieved campaigns. “We took a lot of heat for this poll,” Ms. Selzer told me Friday morning. “We were kind of sitting out there alone, saying this was going to be a significant Obama victory, and we got beat up pretty badly.”
Hey, here's a new Q-poll from Florida:
A shift by independent voters gives President Barack Obama a 46 - 42 percent lead over Republican Gov. Mitt Romney in the Sunshine State, according to the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll.
Methinks the bloom is off the Romney rose.
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