Justin Trudeau could lead Liberals to first place

OTTAWA—Justin Trudeau is the early favourite of Canadians to lead the Liberals out of the political wilderness, a new poll shows.

The son of former prime minister Pierre Trudeau has the public appeal to vault the sagging Liberals into first place in federal politics, a dazzling possibility for a party knocked to third place in last year’s election.

And the survey — done last week as opposition parties protested the government’s sweeping budget legislation — puts the New Democrats in the lead.

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Across the country, 35 per cent of decided voters would back the NDP in the next federal election — up 2 points since May — while the Tories are at 34 per cent, according to the Angus Reid Public Opinion poll done with the Toronto Star.

It reveals the Tories are down in the polls and growing disapproval with Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

The Liberal party is third with 19 per cent (up 1 point, followed by the Bloc Québécois down one point at 6 per cent and the Green Party with 5 per cent, down one point as well.

Bob Rae, who has been the Liberal party’s interim leader, announced last week that he would not run for the leadership, a decision that throws the race wide open.

All eyes are now on Trudeau, who conceded last week that he would rethink his previously announced decision to stay out of the race as well.

Forty-two per cent of Canadians think he would do a good job, easily outpacing the next most popular choice, Quebec MP Marc Garneau, who has the support of 23 per cent.

They are followed by Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney (15 per cent) — a long shot to enter the race — Liberal MP Ralph Goodale (14 per cent) and Gerard Kennedy (11 per cent), who lost his Toronto riding in the last election.

Potential contenders David McGuinty, Scott Brison, Martin Cauchon, Martha Hall Findlay and Dominic LeBlanc all polled in the single digits.

So far, no big-name candidates have officially declared their intention to seek the party’s leadership, to be decided next April.

Trudeau’s strong showing is based almost entirely on the strength of his family name and his own high profile in recent months, said Jodi Shanoff, senior vice-president of Angus Reid Public Opinion.

“Justin Trudeau’s popularity can be attributed almost entirely to name recognition,” she said, noting his successful boxing showdown with Senator Patrick Brazeau earlier this year.

“He’s just had a great PR season with his boxing. These things keep him top of mind with Canadians while other potential candidates and people who are mulling this over right now haven’t had a chance to have the political impact,” she said in an interview Sunday.

But she cautioned that name recognition alone isn’t enough for a successful leader.

“They shouldn’t be jumping on a candidate who in the early days is popular on the surface,” Shanoff said.

Meanwhile, the poll shows the Conservatives and New Democrats locked in a dead heat, thanks to the popularity of NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair and Harper’s unpopularity.

Forty-five per cent of Canadians approve of Mulcair’s performance, who took over the helm of the party in March while 33 per cent disapprove.

That compares with 38 per cent who approve of Harper, compared with 53 per cent who disapprove.

“Thomas Mulcair has all the political momentum in Canada,” Shanoff said.

She said the Tories’ omnibus legislation, which introduces sweeping changes to dozens of laws, including environmental protections and old age security, has many Canadians asking, “What is he up to.”

“Canadians have always been on the fence,” Shanoff said. “We appreciate his leadership characteristics. We’ve never really decided that we like him.”

The results are based on an online poll of 1,500 Canadians on June 15 and June 16. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20.