Is the Hispanic vote a 'Lost Cause' for Romney After Supreme court Immigration Decision?

plus obama is loosing the white vote lol

Obama's White Support Is Too Low to Win
By David Paul Kuhn - June 22, 2012

President Obama does not currently have enough white support to win re-election even if he retains his minority base from 2008. At the same time, electoral data indicates Mitt Romney has not yet attracted enough of these white voters to capitalize on Obama's weakness.
Pundits often note that Romney cannot win with his current level of Hispanic support. That's likely true. But so is the converse: Obama cannot win with his level of white support unless white swing voters withhold their votes from Romney as well.
Today, fewer whites back Obama than any Democratic candidate since Walter Mondale. Romney does not need to emulate Ronald Reagan to win. Should he match Reagan’s share of the white vote in 1984 -- presuming all else remains constant since 2008 -- Romney would rout Obama.
Of course, America has changed since Reagan. Non-Hispanic whites were 89 percent of the electorate when Reagan first won the White House in 1980. They were 85 percent in 1988. By 2008, whites were 74 percent. That shift has upended the electoral landscape. But only so much.
Take Michael Dukakis’ fate as an example. In 1988, George H.W. Bush’s margin of victory exceeded Obama’s in 2008. But if Obama’s level of white support in 2012 equals Dukakis’, and all else remains the same from 2008, Obama would likely narrowly win. He would lack a mandate and risk immediate lame-duck status. But he would survive with white support that once sundered Democrats.
Unless . . .
What if Obama doesn't even match Dukakis with whites? That’s the dynamic of 2012. This electorate has a white floor. And it has broken for this president. Democrats cannot depend on demographics to save them.
Should Romney win the whites Obama lost, Romney will only need to perform as well as John McCain with minorities to win. This is true even under Democrats’ most optimistic, and unlikely, demographic scenario: that the white share of the electorate decreases another two percentage points from 2008, blacks turn out at the same historic levels they did then, and the Hispanic share of the vote rises from 9 to 11 percent of the electorate while Obama retains the same level of support from other minority groups.
The white margin to watch: 61-39. That’s the rough break-even point. Obama likely needs more than 39 percent of whites to assure re-election. Romney likely needs at least 61 percent of whites to assure Obama’s defeat (or 60.5 in some scenerios). These are estimates based on an electorate that matches the diversity of 2008 or is slightly less white. It presumes the Electoral College outcome does not diverge from the winner of the popular vote (loose talk aside, it’s only happened four times in U.S. history).
Thus, Obama can do a little worse than Dukakis, and Romney must perform a little better than Bush circa 1988. Whites favored Reagan in 1984 by a 64-35 margin. They favored Bush in 1988 by a 59-40 margin. Four years ago, whites favored McCain by a 55-43 margin.
Only 37 or 38 percent of whites back Obama today, according to the Gallup Poll’s authoritative weekly averages since early April (which have a larger sample size than most polls combined). The rub for Romney? In those same matchups, Romney only wins 54 percent of whites. Other surveys show the same. CNN’s latest pegged the white margin at 53-39. FOX News’ latest, 51-35. Ipsos-Reuters, 53-38. The Pew Research Center's polls have, however, shown Obama stronger this year. Its recent survey placed the margin at 54-41.
Writ large, Obama appears below his floor with whites. But so does Romney. Obama has too few whites saying yea to a second term. And Romney has converted too few nays to his side. Notably, the same share of whites say they will vote for Obama as approve of his job performance.
These whites constitute, by far, the largest share of the swing vote. The president depends on Hispanics to partly compensate for his weakness with whites. That’s possible in some states like Florida, Colorado and Nevada. But Latinos are less than a 10th of the electorate in every other swing
state.

Report Says Obama Cannot Win Without White Voters
By Andrew Zarowny
Has Barack Obama already lost his reelection bid for 2012? Was a decision late last year by the Obama campaign to write off ′working white voters′ the root cause? A story by David Paul Kuhn of Real Clear Politics seems to be suggesting that Obama cannot win due to falling support from white voters. That even if he does manage to repeat his successes with non-white voters from 2008, the game is already over. That Obama may not even win the dismally low 35% that Walter Mondale won in 1984. The only salvation, however, is that Mitt Romney has yet to capitalize on this advantage. According to Kuhn′s demographics, the ′over-under′ is 61% for Romney and 39% for Obama. Those are the percentages of the white voters either candidate needs to win.
Barack Obama was supposed to be the transformational president. Half white himself, Obama was billed as the post-racial president who would heal the divisions in America. But the exact opposite has been the case. The nation is more divided, more partisan, than ever before. Perhaps the most amusing example is how, this week, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi criticized the contempt of Congress vote against Eric Holder held by the House Judiciary Oversight Committee, setting the stage for a vote by the full House this coming week. Pelosi tried to deflect critics of Eric Holder by raising the issue of vote suppression. Yet it has been Eric Holder directing the Department of Justice to ignore any vote suppression cases where whites were the targets. Such as in the case of the New Black Panther Party intimidating white voters in Philadelphia in November, 2008. Justice Department whistle-blowers testified that orders to drop the case came from on high.
The most recent Gallup Poll shows that among white voters, Obama only has 37-38% support now, barely more than the 35% which Walter Mondale won in 1984. Other polls have Obama with even less. Mitt Romney, on the other hand, is still not doing all that great either, averaging about 53-55% support from whites in most polls. Of course, one may factor in the so-called ′Bradley Effect′ in any political poll where race is an issue. So these numbers may already be off by 4 to 5 points favoring Romney.
The demographic trends for future elections will make the white vote less significant. But that will not help Barack Obama overcome the lack of support from white voters now. Obama is also having trouble with his own base of support. He is down 4% among Black voters, down 6% amongst women, down 5 to 9 points among college graduates and post-graduates, and off 9% among the youth vote. Older voters, including the senior citizens, have Obama trailing about 6% from 2008. Not only has Obama apparently written off the ′working white′ vote, but also Catholics and other devout religious voters, too, with his position shifts on birth control and gay marriage. The bottom line in all of this is that the election is Mitt Romney′s to win, even by a landslide, if he can sell his vision for the future to America. If so, then Barack Obama may suffer the most humiliating defeat of any presidential candidate