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Is 'Predictive Policing' Helpful or Harmful to Society?

Fef 2012/07/13 19:00:00
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Predictive policing uses algorithms to predict where crime will occur and sends extra law enforcement patrols into those neighborhoods. The police processes historical data through a computer program and determines "hot spots" based on modeling by social anthropologists.

Reason.com asks, "How might predictive policing interfere with the Constitution’s Fourth Amendment guarantee that Americans are to be free unreasonable searches and seizures?" Reason.com claims to provide an alternative to right-wing and left-wing opinions with its focus on liberty and individual choice. Ronald Bailey's article discusses the benefits (less crime, more efficient law enforcement) and costs (possible violation of Civil Rights?).

REASON.COM reports:
Predictive policing helps police protect citizens. It could also be used to oppress them.

Chart from Memphis Police Department’s Blue CRUSH initiative uses IBM predictive analytics software to analyze past and present crime records in seconds to create multi-layer “hot spots” and better deploy officers to combat crime.
Predictive Policing

Read More: http://reason.com/archives/2012/07/10/predictive-p...

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Top Opinion

  • iamco2000 2012/07/14 02:39:38
    Harmful to Society
    iamco2000
    +11
    hmmm, slowly edge our way into an Orwellian nightmare shall we? Haven't we been told that slow, metered, indoctrination causes us to not notice societal changes or ask questions? 1920's Germany experienced the same thing....the gov. said "every self-respecting German citizen will be proud to register their guns", then when it became time for Hitler to bring the hammer down it was a piece of cake for the Gestapo and SS to round up....they'd already been given the addresses and names.

    Talk about a real-life acting out of the Minority Report, you might be arrested because an algorithm decided you would be, sorry but we have a Constitution that specifically and clearly states Innocent until PROVEN guilty, not suspect until preemptively apprehended.

    Talk about a sign of the times, what's next death sentences by self-aware "predictive enforcement" drones?

    Grace to you, Glory to God!

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  • zoilandon 2012/07/16 15:30:19
    Helpful to Society
    zoilandon
    +1
    This is similar to HACCP in food manufacture, where the most likely contamination sites are given special attention. Makes sense. You wouldn't check your car radiator for a gas leak, right? Ok, it is like that.
    It is also akin to profiling, which though maligned, has made Israeli airports the safest in the world (old Jewish ladies are NOT subjected to whole body searches).
  • jubil8 ... zoilandon 2012/07/16 15:32:30
    jubil8 BN-0 PON
    I've heard that toddlers aren't body-searched in Israel either. :)
  • JOMO 2012/07/16 15:29:00 (edited)
    Harmful to Society
    JOMO
    +1
    The current police system is as broken as any one thing can be broken, to add to it a predictive feature will only serve to enhance a already broken situation.

    I personally have no respect for police in their current status of operation, they operate from a "WE against "THEM" posture, under the term of "Protect and Serve"... Based on how citizens are abused by police charters across America., it is apparent who they are protecting and serving and it is not the American people.

    If America's military served our country in the manor that police do.., that would be called communism.... Bottom line there is absolutely nothing judicial about America's courts and their so call arms of the law (police).. Predictive policing is a terrible idea on top of a already terrible situation....JOMO
  • me JOMO 2012/07/16 15:58:55
    me
    +2
    The police are already in the 'everyone is guilty until we can make you guilty' mode and this would add one more layer to the LEO's warped thought process.

    I just read where a cop broke an 82 year old lady's neck because she touched him. The police claim that touching a police officer is assault and assaulting a police officer is a felony so the cop threw the elderly lady to the ground with a head lock.

    Smiling at an officer is disrespectful. Looking at an officer is displaying aggression. Turning your back towards a cop is evasion. Speaking to a cop is interfering with a police officer. Soon, not telling an officer that you are innocent when you are will be withholding evidence. Have you ever noticed that when a cop makes a mistake, it is always some citizen that pays the price. The Serve and Protect is Serve the cops and protect the cops...
  • Maiko 2012/07/16 15:27:44
    Harmful to Society
    Maiko
    +1
    I think some have been watching "Minority Report" a bit too much. This will lead to the police being able to go off of "hunches" and possible arrest as well as shadow people for no good reason. Our privacy, liberty as well as freedom may go straight down the drain. Those of us who don't get into any troubles will also have to worry about being persecuted for living in a "hot spot?" This whole predictive policing should be left to the silver screen. It has no business being used in real life...
  • aleksan... Maiko 2012/07/16 23:07:47
    aleksandr savchenkov
    God damn the morons that find their way onto the Internet. If you live in a high crime area, there are simply going to be more cops around. That's it! The way people are talking on this site makes it seem that the system allows the police to break into your house if you are in a high crime area. That's not how it works!!!
  • Small man big mouth 2012/07/16 15:27:44
    Harmful to Society
    Small man big mouth
    +1
    Dude this is gonna happen someday ill tell ya that. There will be no more "innocent until proven guilty" which means less, if ANY constitutional freedom left and in the same way that anyone can be labeled a terrorist and detained INDEFINATELY WITHOUT TRIAL, the same will be true here. We already have a soolution to crime! Maintain the traditional family unit (most crime comes from fatherless families), proper education, MAINTAIN the peace by keeping places clean and punishing small crimes (the "broken window theory") and do away with welfare where people have become dependent on state resources and feel entitled instead of having a real ethic of work and autonomy. The marxists have destroyed our society under the guise of social justice and progress! This is what happens when you tolerate gay marriage and allow people to buy beer and mcdonalds with EBT cards.
  • biggjoe8 Small m... 2012/07/16 15:39:44
    biggjoe8
    Do you know how stupid this makes you look? What does gay marrage have to do with anything about the police. Ignorent post!
  • aleksan... Small m... 2012/07/16 23:09:07
    aleksandr savchenkov
    The grammar in this thread gave me cancer.
  • clh1 2012/07/16 15:24:40
    Helpful to Society
    clh1
    If it helps ... Do it...who cares?
  • NoName clh1 2012/07/16 20:19:53
    NoName
    A lot of people who want to ensure there are checks and balances to prevent anyone from abusing these powers, that's who.
  • Nickolie NoName 2012/09/21 16:49:21
    Nickolie
    Yea cause those checks and balances are working out great these days.
  • LWS 2012/07/16 15:23:41
    Harmful to Society
    LWS
    +1
    Just another profiling tool!
  • Barry Calligan 2012/07/16 15:22:19
    Harmful to Society
    Barry Calligan
    +2
    The liberals are the reason why big brother exists in the first place.
  • joshua ben-ami 2012/07/16 15:19:00
    Harmful to Society
    joshua ben-ami
    +1
    Seriously, how long will citizens allow their rights to be trampled????
  • Katarina Persson 2012/07/16 15:16:46
    Harmful to Society
    Katarina Persson
    +1
    Wrong method to provent crime
  • Bro. Bezoomny Koshka 2012/07/16 15:15:22
    Harmful to Society
    Bro. Bezoomny Koshka
    +2
    While not precisely harmful, this is like stocking up extra bandages in a location where people tend to get hurt a lot. It uses up resources that could be better allocated elsewhere, and does nothing to address the origin of the problem.

    We don't need more police, or more policing. We need people who do not live in ignorance and desperation, for whom crime seems like the best or only option.
  • freedom 2012/07/16 15:14:47
    Helpful to Society
    freedom
    +1
    This article ignores the fact these computers are only enhancing what police already do. Banks being robbed? Put a police officer on duty there. Car being stolen from parking lot? Increase security. These programs enhance what police do but if the results are dramatic, it means the police were not doing their best before they got the software.
  • Nickolie 2012/07/16 15:13:13
    Helpful to Society
    Nickolie
    I dont understand how this has anything whatsoever to do with search and seizure, not to mention if your not doing anything wrong why would you care if there are extra patrols, personally I would find it comforting.
  • Small m... Nickolie 2012/07/16 15:33:36
    Small man big mouth
    Because you don't understand anything.
  • Nickolie Small m... 2012/07/30 21:42:40
    Nickolie
    Wow that was really helpfull.
  • crystal.lu.31 2012/07/16 15:13:09
    Harmful to Society
    crystal.lu.31
    +2
    Umm, history doesn't always happen again.
  • crystal... crystal... 2012/07/16 15:16:54
    crystal.lu.31
    Wouldn't you just be wasting police forces that could go somewhere else where they actually need them instead of patroling streets with "historical data" of crime rates?
  • Bro. Be... crystal... 2012/07/16 15:21:57
    Bro. Bezoomny Koshka
    +1
    True, but when patterns emerge, it's sometimes useful to expect them to repeat in the future. But we all know how reliably such prediction works with meteorology!

    Asimov kind of explored this notion with his fictional science of psychohistory in the Foundation novels. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
  • nimbleh... Bro. Be... 2012/07/16 17:22:23
    nimblehuman
    Hooray Hari Seldon!
  • Howard 2012/07/16 15:12:34
    Harmful to Society
    Howard
    +5
    We The People must police the police.
  • mikeyllo 2012/07/16 15:09:52
    Harmful to Society
    mikeyllo
    +2
    The only time this would ever be helpful is IF a specific crime were actually stopped due to the usage of the algorithm. However, as a minority individual from the inner city, I can see this being more of a problem for some than others every time they get it wrong. Based on the news and reported events, police (and people from those areas) already know where the hotspots are. With cities like Chicago and Baltimore having such high crime rates, do people really need another way to determine where crime is occurring? And if my neighbor has had a long day and decides to shoot the next person he sees, how will that be predicted? Will his home show up as a hotspot? Nope, they'll just increase police presence in areas with higher crime rates, which is something they could have been doing all along.
  • glen 2012/07/16 15:07:31
    Helpful to Society
    glen
    If it can prevent riots By all means.
  • ethan_hines 2012/07/16 15:06:09
    Harmful to Society
    ethan_hines
    +1
    Comon people this is not the time to start fulling the fantasies of movies like Minority Report, where you are arrested even before you commit the crime....
  • Digman14 2012/07/16 15:05:52
    Harmful to Society
    Digman14
    +1
    Using historical data to target crime zones is a little discriminating is it not? Predictive policing isn't the answer, regulating guns is the answer. Every single nation that has gun control has a lower violent crime rate than the U.S does. Guns are the problem, not the solution. I'm not saying we should take away people's hunting and sport rifles, but the 2nd Amendment was made at a time where you shot once, and then either had to reload, or buy a new pistol.

    In a day where we can fire thousands of rounds per minute, we don't need assault weapons or even most pistols. Civilian model pistols should have much smaller ammo capacity. Whilst having rifles and shotguns for sport. After all, guns shouldn't need to be used, they're a last resort to a potentially harmful person. In most cases, the threat of being shot is enough to subdue a criminal.

    Guns and violent crime are not inversely related. You cannot have one without increasing the other.
  • Small m... Digman14 2012/07/16 15:43:40
    Small man big mouth
    You my friend are brain dead due to lack of oxygen from your head being lodged in your rectum. Have you EVER seen a gang banger cholo walk into a gun store and legally buy a gun according to state law and procedure? Uh no. They get guns illegally and ALWAYS WILL. Disarming law abiding citizens is not the answer it will only stop the criminals from thinking twice before they break into my house. Everyone owns a gun in texas. Guess how low the crime rate is there. LIKE YOU SAID the threat of being shot is enough to stop a criminal and THAT is what keeps them out of my house. DUUUH and how can we use guns to protect our lives as a last resort if YOU TAKE THEM AWAY?! Remove head, and breathe.
  • Digman14 Small m... 2012/07/17 15:43:00
    Digman14
    It's actually you who needs to remove their head from their ass. I have seen plenty of known gang members buy guns. Anyone can buy a gun. There are so few exceptions, it's insane. Also, If you'll read my comment, you'll see I said nothing the likes of disarming citizens. Although my personal feelings are that they shouldn't have access to guns, I do believe that somewhat extreme, and believe that civilian models should be modified to prevent misuse.

    You wanna talk about Texas? Okay, let's talk about Texas.

    1. Texas is 49th in verbal SAT scores, and 46th on average in SAT math scores
    2. 16.3% of Texans live below the poverty level, making them one of the 10 poorest states in the USA.
    3. Texas is the state with the lowest amount of people to have health insurance.

    Texas has declared war on critical thinking. They believe that the family should be in charge of teaching children higher thinking skills. This is exactly what Adolf Hitler did with public schools in Germany, and indoctrinated a large amount of German nationalism into curriculum to effectively brainwash his citizens with anti-semtic beliefs.

    So think the actual reason people don't commit crime in Texas is because:

    1. They're too stupid to know how to use a gun.
    2. They're too poor to buy a gun.
    3. They're too worried about heal...

    It's actually you who needs to remove their head from their ass. I have seen plenty of known gang members buy guns. Anyone can buy a gun. There are so few exceptions, it's insane. Also, If you'll read my comment, you'll see I said nothing the likes of disarming citizens. Although my personal feelings are that they shouldn't have access to guns, I do believe that somewhat extreme, and believe that civilian models should be modified to prevent misuse.

    You wanna talk about Texas? Okay, let's talk about Texas.

    1. Texas is 49th in verbal SAT scores, and 46th on average in SAT math scores
    2. 16.3% of Texans live below the poverty level, making them one of the 10 poorest states in the USA.
    3. Texas is the state with the lowest amount of people to have health insurance.

    Texas has declared war on critical thinking. They believe that the family should be in charge of teaching children higher thinking skills. This is exactly what Adolf Hitler did with public schools in Germany, and indoctrinated a large amount of German nationalism into curriculum to effectively brainwash his citizens with anti-semtic beliefs.

    So think the actual reason people don't commit crime in Texas is because:

    1. They're too stupid to know how to use a gun.
    2. They're too poor to buy a gun.
    3. They're too worried about health insurance, since they don't have coverage if they get injured.

    Texas threatens to secede from the union, but what they don't realize is that we don't want them anymore. Why America hasn't kicked Texas out is beyond me. Texas' violent crime rate is actually pretty damn high. They also have one of the highest incarceration rates, and the highest rate of capital punishment.
    (more)
  • SW Digman14 2012/07/16 16:29:47
    SW
    We're doing something wrong. We have one of the highest violent crime rates per capita in the industrialized world and more people in prison than ANY country in the world. More prisons, more police etc isn't doing the trick. I don't know about gun control either though in Canada they have lots of guns --they just don't shoot each other pretty much ever.
  • Digman14 SW 2012/07/17 15:47:24
    Digman14
    But in Canada it's rather difficult to get a gun. There are serious background checks and regulations, thus less dangerous people are given dangerous weapons.
  • SW Digman14 2012/08/06 17:28:21
    SW
    Try that here and they call you "Hitler!" We have too many nut bags and too strong of an NRA lobby to have any sensible gun laws anymore.
  • JDog_90305 2012/07/16 15:02:06
    Helpful to Society
    JDog_90305
    +1
    Most of the people who see this as helpful have fallen victim to criminals. When it hits home I believe those who feel it's "harmful" will change their tune. Used properly it could benefit us greatly.
  • Ammie Sigars 2012/07/16 15:00:32 (edited)
    Helpful to Society
    Ammie Sigars
    +2
    Doesn't this just sound like common sence? The only disturbing point here is that police need a sophisticated system to show them where high crime areas. I can here Andy now, "OK, let's see, over at 12th and Main there are two liquer stores and a head shop: there were three robberies and one assault there last weekend. Whatcha think Barney, should we maybe put some officers I that area Friday night? Gosh, In don't know Andy, if only we could afford one of those fancy computers to help us do some cipherin."
  • PeterHenderson 2012/07/16 15:00:16
    Helpful to Society
    PeterHenderson
    +1
    I generally oppose such stuff and am glad most people are suspicious. But in this case it seems to me that the computer is just doing what police already do, which is to station the officers where they are needed. There's potential for abuse, but the only remedy for that is the will of the people. When government abuses its power the public needs to hold the guilty parties legally accountable and PROSECUTE. This almost never happens.
  • the d*ck 2012/07/16 14:59:48
    Helpful to Society
    the d*ck
    +1
    Yes, any time crime can be prevented, especially violent crime it's a good thing...I believe we give criminals way too many rights...if you look like you would rob me, I ain't gonna wait around until you do...
  • PeterHe... the d*ck 2012/07/16 15:01:58
    PeterHenderson
    +3
    Well if you assault me or arrest me cuz I look like I MIGHT rob you, you would be breaking the law yourself and should be arrested.

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