Interesting perspective......hope he's right.
Elleryqueen
2012/06/26 03:35:02
Interesting perspective - sure hope he is
right!
right!
A Las Vegas
"odds maker" opines on why Obama will get "killed" by Romney in November. Wayne
Allyn Root ~ May 30, 2012 ~ Townhall Alerts Most political predictions are made
by biased pollsters, pundits, or prognosticators who are either rooting for
Republicans or Democrats. I am neither. I am a former Libertarian Vice
Presidential nominee, and a well-known Vegas oddsmaker with one of the most
accurate records of predicting political races.
But as an
oddsmaker with a pretty remarkable track record of picking political races, I
play no favorites. I simply use common sense to call them as I see them. Back in
late December I released my New Years Predictions. I predicted back then- before
a single GOP primary had been held, with Romney trailing for months to almost
every GOP competitor from Rick Perry to Herman Cain to Newt- that Romney would
easily rout his competition to win the GOP nomination by a landslide. I also
predicted that the Presidential race between Obama and Romney would be very
close until election day. But that on election day Romney would win by a
landslide similar to Reagan-Carter in 1980. Understanding history, today I am
even more convinced of a resounding Romney victory. 32 years ago at this moment
in time, Reagan was losing by 9 points to Carter. Romney is right now running
even in polls. So why do most pollsters give Obama the edge?
oddsmaker with a pretty remarkable track record of picking political races, I
play no favorites. I simply use common sense to call them as I see them. Back in
late December I released my New Years Predictions. I predicted back then- before
a single GOP primary had been held, with Romney trailing for months to almost
every GOP competitor from Rick Perry to Herman Cain to Newt- that Romney would
easily rout his competition to win the GOP nomination by a landslide. I also
predicted that the Presidential race between Obama and Romney would be very
close until election day. But that on election day Romney would win by a
landslide similar to Reagan-Carter in 1980. Understanding history, today I am
even more convinced of a resounding Romney victory. 32 years ago at this moment
in time, Reagan was losing by 9 points to Carter. Romney is right now running
even in polls. So why do most pollsters give Obama the edge?
First, most
pollsters are missing one ingredient-common sense. Here is my gut instinct. Not
one American who voted for McCain 4 years ago will switch to Obama. Not one in
all the land. But many millions of people who voted for an unknown Obama 4 years
ago are angry, disillusioned, turned off, or scared about the future. Voters
know Obama now- and that is a bad harbinger. Now to an analysis of the voting
blocks that matter in U.S. politics:
pollsters are missing one ingredient-common sense. Here is my gut instinct. Not
one American who voted for McCain 4 years ago will switch to Obama. Not one in
all the land. But many millions of people who voted for an unknown Obama 4 years
ago are angry, disillusioned, turned off, or scared about the future. Voters
know Obama now- and that is a bad harbinger. Now to an analysis of the voting
blocks that matter in U.S. politics:
*Black voters.
Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. His endorsement of gay
marriage has alienated many black church-going Christians. He may get 88% of
their vote instead of the 96% he got in 2008. This is not good news for
Obama.
Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. His endorsement of gay
marriage has alienated many black church-going Christians. He may get 88% of
their vote instead of the 96% he got in 2008. This is not good news for
Obama.
*Hispanic
voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. If Romney picks Rubio
as his VP running-mate the GOP may pick up an extra 10% to 15% of Hispanic
voters (plus lock down Florida). This is not good news for Obama.
voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. If Romney picks Rubio
as his VP running-mate the GOP may pick up an extra 10% to 15% of Hispanic
voters (plus lock down Florida). This is not good news for Obama.
*Jewish voters.
Obama has been weak in his support of Israel. Many Jewish voters and big donors
are angry and disappointed. I predict Obama's Jewish support drops from 78% in
2008 to the low 60’s. This is not good news for Obama.
Obama has been weak in his support of Israel. Many Jewish voters and big donors
are angry and disappointed. I predict Obama's Jewish support drops from 78% in
2008 to the low 60’s. This is not good news for Obama.
*Youth voters.
Obama’s biggest and most enthusiastic believers from 4 years ago have graduated
into a job market from hell. Young people are disillusioned, frightened, and
broke- a bad combination. The enthusiasm is long gone. Turnout will be much
lower among young voters, as will actual voting percentages. This not good news
for Obama.
Obama’s biggest and most enthusiastic believers from 4 years ago have graduated
into a job market from hell. Young people are disillusioned, frightened, and
broke- a bad combination. The enthusiasm is long gone. Turnout will be much
lower among young voters, as will actual voting percentages. This not good news
for Obama.
*Catholic
voters. Obama won a majority of Catholics in 2008. That won’t happen again. Out
of desperation to please women, Obama went to war with the Catholic Church over
contraception. Now he is being sued by the Catholic Church. Majority lost. This
is not good news for Obama.
voters. Obama won a majority of Catholics in 2008. That won’t happen again. Out
of desperation to please women, Obama went to war with the Catholic Church over
contraception. Now he is being sued by the Catholic Church. Majority lost. This
is not good news for Obama.
*Small Business
owners. Because I ran for Vice President last time around, and I'm a small
businessman myself, I know literally thousands of small business owners. At
least 40% of them in my circle of friends, fans and supporters voted for Obama 4
years ago to “give someone different a chance.” I warned them that he would
pursue a war on capitalism and demonize anyone who owned a business...that he’d
support unions over the private sector in a big way...that he'd overwhelm the
economy with spending and debt. My friends didn’t listen. Four years later, I
can't find one person in my circle of small business owner friends voting for
Obama. Not one. This is not good news for Obama.
owners. Because I ran for Vice President last time around, and I'm a small
businessman myself, I know literally thousands of small business owners. At
least 40% of them in my circle of friends, fans and supporters voted for Obama 4
years ago to “give someone different a chance.” I warned them that he would
pursue a war on capitalism and demonize anyone who owned a business...that he’d
support unions over the private sector in a big way...that he'd overwhelm the
economy with spending and debt. My friends didn’t listen. Four years later, I
can't find one person in my circle of small business owner friends voting for
Obama. Not one. This is not good news for Obama.
*Blue collar
working class whites. Do I need to say a thing? White working class voters are
about as happy with Obama as Boston Red Sox fans feel about the New York
Yankees. This is not good news for Obama.
working class whites. Do I need to say a thing? White working class voters are
about as happy with Obama as Boston Red Sox fans feel about the New York
Yankees. This is not good news for Obama.
*Suburban moms.
The issue isn’t contraception…it’s having a job to pay for contraception.
Obama’s economy frightens these moms. They are worried about putting food on the
table. They fear for their children’s future. This is not good news for
Obama.
The issue isn’t contraception…it’s having a job to pay for contraception.
Obama’s economy frightens these moms. They are worried about putting food on the
table. They fear for their children’s future. This is not good news for
Obama.
*Military
Veterans. McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney is winning by 24 points.
The more our military vets got to see of Obama, the more they disliked him. This
is not good news for Obama. Add it up. Is there one major group where Obama has
gained since 2008? Will anyone in America wake up on election day saying “I
didn’t vote for Obama 4 years ago. But he’s done such a fantastic job, I can’t
wait to vote for him today.” Does anyone feel that a vote for Obama makes their
job more secure?
Veterans. McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney is winning by 24 points.
The more our military vets got to see of Obama, the more they disliked him. This
is not good news for Obama. Add it up. Is there one major group where Obama has
gained since 2008? Will anyone in America wake up on election day saying “I
didn’t vote for Obama 4 years ago. But he’s done such a fantastic job, I can’t
wait to vote for him today.” Does anyone feel that a vote for Obama makes their
job more secure?
Forget the polls. My gut instincts as a
Vegas oddsmaker and common sense small businessman tell me this will be a
historic landslide and a world-class repudiation of Obama’s radical and risky
socialist agenda. It's Reagan-Carter all over again.
Vegas oddsmaker and common sense small businessman tell me this will be a
historic landslide and a world-class repudiation of Obama’s radical and risky
socialist agenda. It's Reagan-Carter all over again.
But I’ll give
Obama credit for one thing - he is living proof that familiarity breeds
contempt.
Obama credit for one thing - he is living proof that familiarity breeds
contempt.
Sort By
- Stoner 2012/06/26 04:11:43
+1
reply -
Not quite. At least, as far as I know, Romney respects the Constitution, which oblunder does not.reply
- Stoner Elleryq... 2012/06/26 15:30:34+1
reply -
+1Even if all this is factual, which is in question, doesn't matter as Ron Paul isn't even in the running. Still pick Romney over Oblunder. Unfortunately has to be one or the other of the two.reply
- Stoner Elleryq... 2012/06/27 02:05:51+1problem is it will still be same ol same ol nothing will change..why Paul didnt get any air time cause your choices where made already.
reply -
+1Unfortunately that is the way the system works. Some changes need to be made.reply
- Stoner Elleryq... 2012/06/27 03:39:14+1i agree on that pointreply
- Stoner Elleryq... 2012/06/26 15:34:28+1there is no one that respects the Constitution more than Ron Paul...he isnt even covered by the LameStreamMedia..we have made the choice for you accept it or else..Romney give me a brak they agree on eveything that is hurting America!Will be the same thing will just get there in a differant way!reply
-
+1That may be, but Ron Paul is NOT the nominee. You are entitled to your opinion, as am I. Have a great day.reply
- WhereIsAmerica? ~PWCM~JLA 2012/06/26 03:47:07+1I hope he is right.reply
