doofiegirl BTO-t- BCRA-F ~PWCM~ 2012/08/14 00:29:33
Almost every day we are insulted by polls that over sample Democrats to create the false impression that Barack Obama is either winning or the race is “too close to call.” These use ridiculous over sampling of Democrats, but they can’t change the facts.
While the media does an excellent job of covering up the Democrats gapping and growing enthusiasm gap careful research and cross referencing can bring out the truth. Each of these factors spells trouble for Barack Obama. With less than three months to go compared to 2008 conservative Republican enthusiasm is 16 points higher and liberal Democrat enthusiasm is 22 points lower.
While this gap is serious on its face, it becomes still worse for the Democrats when juxtaposed with other recent elections with notable enthusiasm gaps.
Gallup had Republicans 19 points more enthusiastic to vote than Democrats in 2010. In 1994 Republicans had a 9 point edge in enthusiasm and in 2006 Democrats had also held a 9 point advantage. The phrase Res ipsa loquitur comes to mind.
Over the years a sharply unbalanced right track/wrong track sentiment among voters has been lethal to presidential reelection campaigns. Rasmussen reports the “right track/wrong track index is 27/63 wrong track. In 1980 and again in 1992 “wrong track” was around 70%.
Gay marriage chasing Blacks away from Obama. For the first time in memory African American ministers are telling their followers not to vote for Obama. More engaged and enthusiastic to vote senior voters favor Paul Ryan’s budget plan over Obama by 48/42. The Democrats will try to convince the remaining 10% of “undecided” seniors but that will be a tough pull. Seniors are the only group who were not fooled by Obama in 2008. More than this Republicans lead Democrats by 48/36 as to voters’ preference in handling the federal budget.

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  • Stryder 2012/08/14 00:35:06 (edited)
    My wife and I were laughing at a recent FOX news poll that had Obama up 9 pts with an 8pt+/- margin of error. I like FOX, but that was just absurd.

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  • Lady Whitewolf 2012/08/14 10:18:16
    Lady Whitewolf
    So? Big whoopie.

    You can vote any way you want.
  • Dwight 2012/08/14 04:15:55
    I have not missed an election since 1980. And Romney/Ryan are my choice this time.
  • dubbie 2012/08/14 01:03:44
    We all need to be caring our flag with us So when the lame stream pans over the crowd they wont be able to hide the fact, We coming to get whats rightfully ours back. course that`ll be the day their camera`s wont work, But all of ours will
  • Yuffie ♫ K-POP Dance Guru 2012/08/14 00:47:45
    Yuffie ♫ K-POP Dance Guru
    Crappy Poll fixed . Got to keep the king thinking the peasants are happy with him.
  • Bill in Niantic 2012/08/14 00:42:48
    Bill in Niantic


  • DM Twin 2012/08/14 00:40:33
    DM Twin
    That is the ONLY way to stop me from voting Republican on November 6th... Your'e going to have to Kill me because if I am breathing on that date I will crawl naked over broken glass toi get to the polls to throw out EVERY DEMOTURD COMMIE humanly possible...

    P.S.... If you are going to TRY to kill me... buy your coffin first and say your goodbyes... gggg
  • Dagon 2012/08/14 00:40:21
  • NPC 2012/08/14 00:39:22
    Texas is an overwhelming Red State and has been for over 20 years. I have voted Conservative since 1980 and nerver misssed an Election so far. Vote Early almost every time. Especially this one
  • Stryder 2012/08/14 00:35:06 (edited)
    My wife and I were laughing at a recent FOX news poll that had Obama up 9 pts with an 8pt+/- margin of error. I like FOX, but that was just absurd.
  • NPC Stryder 2012/08/14 00:40:40
    Think Barack is really losing by 10 ponts. Polls don't mean much this time
  • Stryder NPC 2012/08/14 00:47:37 (edited)
    The only polls I pay any attention to are Rasmussen's. And I think you're right. I can't help but believe that Obama's down considerably.
  • Sheery Stryder 2012/08/14 08:30:27
    Yes And this is just getting started.
    I think many are very happy with Ryan.
    It could be a huge swelling of support and a crushing defeat for Obama.

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