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Haiti cholera 'far worse than expected', experts fear!

JoeBtfsplk 2011/12/18 20:23:41
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The cholera epidemic affecting Haiti looks set to be far worse than officials had thought, experts fear.

Rather than affecting a predicted 400,000 people, the diarrhoeal disease could strike nearly twice as many as this, latest estimates suggest.

Aid efforts will need ramping up, US researchers told The Lancet journal.

The World Health Organization says everything possible is being done to contain the disease and warns that modelling estimates can be inaccurate.

Before last year's devastating earthquake in the Caribbean nation, no cases of cholera had been seen on Haiti for more than a century.

The bacterial disease is spread from person-to-person through contaminated food and water.

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It is going to be larger than predicted in terms of sheer numbers and will last far longer than the initial projections”

Dr Sanjay Basu
Researcher
It causes severe diarrhoea and vomiting, and patients, particularly children and the elderly, are vulnerable to dangerous dehydration as a result.

Gross underestimate

In the three months between October and December 2010, about 150,000 people in Haiti contracted cholera and about 3,500 died.

Around this time, the United Nations projected that the total number infected would likely rise to 400,000.

But researchers at the University of California, San Francisco, say this is a gross underestimate.

They believe the toll could reach 779,000, with 11,100 deaths by the end of November 2011.

Dr Sanjay Basu and colleagues reached their figures using data from Haiti's ministry of health.

They say the UN estimates were "crude" and based on "a simple assumption" that the disease would infect a set portion (2-4%) of Haiti's 10 million population.

Dr Basu's calculations take into account factors like which water supplies have been contaminated and how much immunity the population has to the disease.

They predict the number of cholera cases will be substantially higher than official estimates.

"The epidemic is not likely to be short-term," said Dr Basu. "It is going to be larger than predicted in terms of sheer numbers and will last far longer than the initial projections."

But the researchers say thousands of lives could be saved by provision of clean water, vaccination and expanded access to antibiotics.

A spokesman for the World Health Organization said: "We have to be cautious because modelling does not necessarily reflect what's seen on the ground.

"Latest figures show there have been 252,640 cases and 4,672 deaths as of 10 March 2011.

"We really need to reconstruct water and sanitation systems for the cholera epidemic to go away completely.

"It's a long-term process and cholera is going to be around for a number of years yet."









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Top Opinion

  • Max 2011/12/18 20:32:52
    Max
    +4
    Hopefully, there is still money available from the millions of dollars donated to Haiti from around the world to alleviate this situation. It must be hell living under those conditions.

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  • niviongo R ☮ P ☮ 12-20 2012/01/05 04:35:46
    niviongo R ☮ P ☮ 12-20
    That is not accurate and has nothing to do with the Earthquake.
    It has to do with sanitation and they never had had it.
    Quisqueya (eastern) and Hiati (West) of the Hispaniola Island had cholera before the quake; 67 perished in Quisqueya (Rep Dom) and 8-10 more times in Haiti due to cholera related to that event.
    These ONG´s and other insatiable organizations just want more grants.
    And that is the truth.
  • Mark Mercer 2012/01/03 12:03:12
    Mark Mercer
    No time for Jokes here....it's one bad situation. Hoping for a speedy solution.
  • oros 2012/01/02 15:17:51 (edited)
    oros
    What a bloody mess it seems to be in nothing seems to be happening to make things better. I bet some are getting rich out of the misery they always do.
  • JoeBtfsplk oros 2012/01/02 15:32:34
    JoeBtfsplk
    +1
    bank on it
  • zebsmom 2012/01/02 05:28:06
    zebsmom
    Bet they're really thanking those aide workers right about now.... *sarcasm*
  • JoeBtfsplk zebsmom 2012/01/02 15:33:21
    JoeBtfsplk
    Where did the microorganisms go during quiescent periods in between the seasonal rain events? Further laboratory-based research revealed that they could transform into unique 'dormant stage' that was able to survive for months in the sediment of an estuary.

    Be careful when you start to believe ANYTHING you read in print.
  • zebsmom JoeBtfsplk 2012/01/02 18:12:19 (edited)
    zebsmom
    +1
    Very true. But the fact that there hadn't been any cases in the country for over a century speaks to the fact they probably came from elsewhere. That, and the cases started downstream from the aide worker encampment. They tested all the workers and found many that were positive..... I tend to stict to reliable scientific sources for my info-I'm definitely careful.

    http://the-scientist.com/2011...

    http://mbio.asm.org/content/2...
  • Dynasty Fighter 2012/01/02 05:00:59
    Dynasty Fighter
    Are they that unsanitary or something
  • zebsmom Dynasty... 2012/01/02 05:31:10
    zebsmom
    Some of the aide workers that came to "help" after the earth quake brought the cholera to the country. The infrastructure wasn't much to write home about to start with, and the earth quake destroyed pretty much everything that was there to start with. So...yes, it's unsanitary to say the least-vastly increasing the spread of a lethal disease that was brought into the country by the aide workers
  • JoeBtfsplk zebsmom 2012/01/02 05:45:32
    JoeBtfsplk
    +1
    I'm not sure I fully accept the premise that the 'aid-workers' brought it in.

    Cholera can start all by itself, given the right conditions.

    Haiti - had all the right conditions.
  • zebsmom JoeBtfsplk 2012/01/02 05:55:36 (edited)
    zebsmom
    +1
    Granted, it needs the right conditions to spread, and the conditions there were definitely a "perfect storm". But the bacteria need to be there for it to happen. If there's no bacteria...there's no cholera. The WHO did track down the source, and it was aide workers from countries where cholera is endemic.
  • JoeBtfsplk zebsmom 2012/01/02 05:57:51
    JoeBtfsplk
    new post below
  • JoeBtfsplk zebsmom 2012/01/02 05:49:36 (edited)
    JoeBtfsplk
    time out;

    Where did the microorganisms go during quiescent periods in between the seasonal rain events? Further laboratory-based research revealed that they could transform into unique 'dormant stage' that was able to survive for months in the sediment of an estuary.

    Be careful when you start to believe ANYTHING you read in print.
  • zebsmom JoeBtfsplk 2012/01/02 18:15:24 (edited)
    zebsmom
    +1
    Very true. But the fact that there hadn't been any cases in the country for over a century speaks to the fact they probably came from elsewhere. That, and the cases started downstream from the aide worker encampment. They tested all the workers and found many that were positive..... I tend to stict to reliable scientific sources for my info-I'm definitely careful.

    http://the-scientist.com/2011...

    http://mbio.asm.org/content/2...
  • RainbowCloset 2012/01/02 03:36:17
  • JoeBtfsplk Rainbow... 2012/01/02 04:16:33
  • Amy.[: 2012/01/02 01:02:28
  • JoeBtfsplk Amy.[: 2012/01/02 04:16:31
    JoeBtfsplk
    :):
  • Kashee 2012/01/02 00:15:40
    Kashee
    +1
    We have been warned for many years that in a major disaster there could be a cholera epidemic.
  • JoeBtfsplk Kashee 2012/01/02 00:29:05
    JoeBtfsplk
    civilization et al, must be getting 'stupider' ?
  • zebsmom Kashee 2012/01/02 05:31:32
    zebsmom
    And it could happen anywhere
  • Kashee zebsmom 2012/01/02 15:39:34
    Kashee
    Yes it will. When a disaster leaves you living in a cesspool, many terrible diseases can happen.
  • JoeBtfsplk Kashee 2012/01/02 15:43:57
    JoeBtfsplk
    Where did the microorganisms go during quiescent periods in between the seasonal rain events? Further laboratory-based research revealed that they could transform into unique 'dormant stage' that was able to sruvive for months in the sediment of an estuary.

    Be careful when you start to believe ANYTHING you read in print.
  • Kashee JoeBtfsplk 2012/01/02 16:16:36
    Kashee
    +1
    According to the CDC

    Infectious Disease After a Disaster
    Specific Diseases

    Cryptosporidiosis
    Enteroviruses
    Escherichia coli (E. coli)
    Giardiasis
    Hepatitis B, Hepatitis C, HIV/AIDS
    HBV, HCV, & HIV: Updated U.S. Public Health Service Guidelines for Management of Occupational Exposures to HBV, HCV, & HIV & Recommendations for Postexposure Prophylaxis
    Recommendations for the Triage of HIV+ Patients
    American Academy of HIV Medicine and HIV Medicine Association
    Leptospirosis
    Information for the General Public
    Clinical Guidance
    Legionnaires' disease
    Fact Sheet: Resuming safe operation of building water systems—risk of Legionnaires' disease
    Resuming safe operation of building water systems— for building maintenance superintendents, engineers, managers, and other personnel
    Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) Infection
    Information for the General Public
    Clinical Guidance
    Norovirus
    Rotavirus
    Shigellosis
    Skin Infections
    Flyer: "Are you sure it's only a spider bite?" Learn more about Adobe Acrobat Reader
    Tetanus
    Tetanus Prevention After a Disaster
    Tetanus Vaccination
    Toxoplasmosis
    Trench Foot or Immersion Foot
    Tuberculosis (TB)
    Varicella Disease (...
    &








    According to the CDC

    Infectious Disease After a Disaster
    Specific Diseases

    Cryptosporidiosis
    Enteroviruses
    Escherichia coli (E. coli)
    Giardiasis
    Hepatitis B, Hepatitis C, HIV/AIDS
    HBV, HCV, & HIV: Updated U.S. Public Health Service Guidelines for Management of Occupational Exposures to HBV, HCV, & HIV & Recommendations for Postexposure Prophylaxis
    Recommendations for the Triage of HIV+ Patients
    American Academy of HIV Medicine and HIV Medicine Association
    Leptospirosis
    Information for the General Public
    Clinical Guidance
    Legionnaires' disease
    Fact Sheet: Resuming safe operation of building water systems—risk of Legionnaires' disease
    Resuming safe operation of building water systems— for building maintenance superintendents, engineers, managers, and other personnel
    Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) Infection
    Information for the General Public
    Clinical Guidance
    Norovirus
    Rotavirus
    Shigellosis
    Skin Infections
    Flyer: "Are you sure it's only a spider bite?" Learn more about Adobe Acrobat Reader
    Tetanus
    Tetanus Prevention After a Disaster
    Tetanus Vaccination
    Toxoplasmosis
    Trench Foot or Immersion Foot
    Tuberculosis (TB)
    Varicella Disease (Chickenpox)
    Vibrio cholerae (Non-O1 & Non-O139)
    Vibrio parahaemolyticus
    Vibrio vulnificus
    West Nile Virus
    --------------------
    When we are all piled up in stagnant water, living in our own wastes, are not eating properly, not sleeping properly,have no safe water to drink, suffering PTSD and doing whatever it takes to survive we can expect a lot of diseases to show up.

    I agree about being careful about believing what you read in print, but to me this just makes sense.

    I live in an area that was flooded for about 3 weeks and stupid parents here did not even have the sense to keep their children out of the fetid water. There are still a lot of septic tanks in this area, so you can guess some of the stuff that had to be in that water.
    (more)
  • JoeBtfsplk Kashee 2012/01/02 18:04:24
    JoeBtfsplk
    good sourcing! OK i will concede that it is POSSIBLE that the aid workers introduced cholera.
  • Kashee JoeBtfsplk 2012/01/02 19:05:37
    Kashee
    +1
    I don't know that it was the aid workers that introduced the cholera. i believe it lies dormant in the water. We could experience cholera anywhere.
  • zebsmom JoeBtfsplk 2012/01/02 18:15:49 (edited)
    zebsmom
    +1
    Very true. But the fact that there hadn't been any cases in the country for over a century speaks to the fact they probably came from elsewhere. That, and the cases started downstream from the aide worker encampment. They tested all the workers and found many that were positive..... I tend to stict to reliable scientific sources for my info-I'm definitely careful.

    http://the-scientist.com/2011...

    http://mbio.asm.org/content/2...
  • zebsmom Kashee 2012/01/02 18:13:02
    zebsmom
    +1
    Definitely
  • JoeBtfsplk zebsmom 2012/01/02 18:19:32
    JoeBtfsplk
    +1
    You are correct.
  • TerryAgee 2012/01/01 21:55:59
    TerryAgee
    There needs to be an audit investigation into these charities for Haiti. Where is the aid going?
  • WhereIsAmerica? ~PWCM~JLA 2012/01/01 19:40:12
    WhereIsAmerica? ~PWCM~JLA
    That is horrible.
  • Beautiful_Syn 2012/01/01 18:01:01
    Beautiful_Syn
    We have the ability to people others where it really counts instead we are off in another (or we were) country fighting a war that was based off a lie that turned a mole hill into a mountain of effects.
  • Hsmagst 2012/01/01 16:02:44
  • JoeBtfsplk Hsmagst 2012/01/01 16:57:12
    JoeBtfsplk
    copy that
  • zebsmom Hsmagst 2012/01/02 05:34:25
    zebsmom
    I don't disagree with you. Cholera had been eradicated in Haiti for over a century. It was brought in by the aide workers from other countries where it's endemic. They're the one's that caused it in the first place...and the lack of sanitation spread it far and wide from there.
  • Dickens 2012/01/01 16:01:44
    Dickens
    ..we can bail out billionaires, but we'll NEVER help these people...
  • JoeBtfsplk Dickens 2012/01/01 16:57:35
    JoeBtfsplk
    apples and oranges
  • DS in Oak Ridge NC 2012/01/01 14:24:07
    DS in Oak Ridge NC
    Makes you wonder where we'll find real success stories emerging from UN missions, mandates, or grand schemes. A humanitarian mission should not overlook such basics.
  • zebsmom DS in O... 2012/01/02 05:35:08
    zebsmom
    *sarcastic snort* The UN humanitarian mission is what CAUSED the problem
  • doc moto 2012/01/01 14:00:08
    doc moto
    +1
    http://www.voanews.com/englis...
    If you watch the video on the site above, you can hear for yourself where they believe is the primary cause and for the spread of the latest cholera epidemic in Haiti...

    The have traced it back to the UN peacekeeping base and its people...The visiting folks are part of the continuing problem there, plus the problem is the lack of the availability and access to potable water.

    There is also a very reasonable fix (cure) and when and if the 'powers-that-be' get off their greedy arses, more can be done; in the mean time yoiu have to disguise the treatment and this can be done to the 'non-for-profit' centers and possible distributed in Haiti and other locations throughout the world...Hopefully this can be completed the first quarter this year...

    The UN and its AGENDA 21 and other recycled takeover crap helps out too, there is such good carrying folks running things around here...

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