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Global warming proceeding as fast as predicted; Global sea level rise *faster* than predicted.

Icarus 2012/12/02 10:22:23
Global warming is proceeding as fast as predicted in the IPCC reports -


global warming proceeding fast predicted ipcc reports


However, global sea level rise is above the fastest rate predicted in the IPCC reports -

reports global sea level rise fastest rate predicted ipcc reports


This is primarily due to the accelerating melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets -


rate predicted ipcc reports accelerating melting greenland antarctic ice sheets


Over 97.5% of the climate system's heat content resides in the oceans, which have been warming faster in the last decade than in the previous two.

Studies of ocean heat content in recent years (Lyman et al 2010, Levitus et al 2012) show heat accumulating in the oceans at the rate of 10^23 joules in the last decade, which is 2.7*10^19 joules or the equivalent of 430,000 Hiroshima explosions every single day -


ohc2000m

This rate of heating equates to 0.62W/m² or the same energy imbalance as would be caused by a rise of atmospheric CO₂ from 345 to 390ppm, calculated from the climate forcing formula for CO₂ of ΔF = 5.35 * ln(C/C₀). Hence we would have to reduce atmospheric CO₂ from the current 390ppm to 345ppm, merely to halt global warming where it is now (assuming we haven't already triggered off substantial positive carbon feedbacks). This proves that Dr. James Hansen was absolutely right when he advocated that the world should aim to reduce CO₂ to 350ppm as a first step to stabilising the climate and averting climate chaos.

So, to halt global warming we have to somehow sequester 350 billion tons of CO₂ from the atmosphere and store it in a stable form somewhere on Earth. Of course it's worse than that, because we're still producing another 30 billion tons every single year, so we would have to sequester that as well. Do you know of any technology and energy source that is capable of doing that? I don't.
So that's our predicament, and it doesn't look pretty. The emissions path we're on now means that we will be at 2°C above mid-20th Century global temperature by 2050, perhaps even 2040, and at least 4°C by 2100. Considering that the current 0.6°C has already caused an order of magnitude increase in extreme weather, the terminal decline of Arctic sea ice, shifting climate zones, disappearing glaciers and literally thousands of other physical and biological signs of a rapidly warming planet, this is to say the least, reckless. We need to stop pretending it isn't happening, and start figuring out what, if anything, we can do to bring global warming to a halt.
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  • Richard... oldlady 2012/12/02 21:09:01
    Richard M. Nixon
    That bed is located in Saudi Arabia and the companies are on the bottom.

    bed located saudi arabia companies
  • oldlady Richard... 2012/12/02 21:22:03
    oldlady
    Good! As it should be :/
    ALL THE SHAH S MEN
  • Richard... oldlady 2012/12/02 21:36:28
    Richard M. Nixon
    Depends how one looks at the issue.

    depends issue
  • oldlady Richard... 2012/12/02 21:51:17
    oldlady
    For a moment there I thought you had something intelligent to give to the conversation. My bad ;-)
  • Richard... oldlady 2012/12/03 12:30:42
    Richard M. Nixon
    Yeah, very bad. In today's world there's always time to look at things differently. For example; if one asks the basic question :why do "they" hate us?" the issue changes quite a bit, doesn't it? Perhaps you could comment on why "they" don't want to return to those thrilling days of yesteryear? Were they actually oppressed and used or did domination by big business actually give them a good lift?
    Can you see a parallel in the US today?

    comment return thrilling days yesteryear oppressed domination business lift parallel
  • R. 2012/12/02 12:31:04
    R.
    +1
    chicken little

    Your arrogance has NO boundaries.
  • Icarus R. 2012/12/02 15:08:48
    Icarus
    +1
    Arrogance would be to imagine that the laws of physics will change for our benefit. They won't. Greenhouse gases cause global warming and that's not going to change just because today it's us pouring hundreds of billions of tons of them into the atmosphere, rather than nature.
  • R. Icarus 2012/12/03 05:31:16 (edited)
    R.
    Arrogance is thinking that man can destroy something he did not create. We
    can use up ALL the natural resources and pollute until it is uninhabitable but
    it will remain long after we are gone. The cycles of the earth are measured in
    millenniums (millennia) , not months.

    -----------------------------...


    A Warm Time in the Past
    The Pliocene epoch covers the period from approximately 5 to 1.8 million years ago and, as such, spanned the period of time during which the Earth transitioned from relatively warm climates to the generally cooler climates of the Pleistocene. This transition included the emergence of the direct ancestors of humankind and contains the beginnings of cyclic Northern Hemisphere glaciation. The Pliocene epoch itself contains episodic climate fluctuations prior to the late Pliocene cooling, and our focus for study is a warm period in the middle Pliocene between 3.15 and 2.85 million years before present.

    This middle Pliocene warming is, potentially, an analog of the future that may provide a means of gaining insight into the effects of global warming. Additionally, unlike many more ancient periods, which were also warmer than the present; the paleogeography of the Pliocene is similar to the present, many of the Pliocene plant and animal species are s...











































    Arrogance is thinking that man can destroy something he did not create. We
    can use up ALL the natural resources and pollute until it is uninhabitable but
    it will remain long after we are gone. The cycles of the earth are measured in
    millenniums (millennia) , not months.

    -----------------------------...


    A Warm Time in the Past
    The Pliocene epoch covers the period from approximately 5 to 1.8 million years ago and, as such, spanned the period of time during which the Earth transitioned from relatively warm climates to the generally cooler climates of the Pleistocene. This transition included the emergence of the direct ancestors of humankind and contains the beginnings of cyclic Northern Hemisphere glaciation. The Pliocene epoch itself contains episodic climate fluctuations prior to the late Pliocene cooling, and our focus for study is a warm period in the middle Pliocene between 3.15 and 2.85 million years before present.

    This middle Pliocene warming is, potentially, an analog of the future that may provide a means of gaining insight into the effects of global warming. Additionally, unlike many more ancient periods, which were also warmer than the present; the paleogeography of the Pliocene is similar to the present, many of the Pliocene plant and animal species are similar to those that remain today, and large numbers of ocean and land-based cores contain well-dated Pliocene sediments that are available for interpretation and mapping.

    In our simulations of the middle Pliocene climate we use the GISS GCM and data generated and/or compiled by the PRISM (Pliocene Research, Interpretation, and Synoptic Mapping) project, part of the U.S. Geological Survey's Global Change Research Program. PRISM focuses on documenting climates of the middle to late Pliocene, with a primary goal of providing the climate modeling community with improved quantitative global paleoenvironmental information. Our Pliocene modeling, in turn, helps test the consistency of different sets of paleo observations, each of which has its own uncertainties.

    GCM Simulations of the Middle Pliocene
    Estimates of sea surface temperatures (SSTs), based on microfossils from deep ocean cores reveal a warm phase in the Pliocene between about 3.15 and 2.85 million years ago. Pollen records from land-based cores, although not as well-dated, also show evidence for a warmer climate at about this same time and further indicate that continental moisture levels were quite different from today. What caused the climate to be warmer is not known with certainty, but increased levels of greenhouse gases have been suggested (see below). Also, previous sensitivity experiments using the GISS GCM imply that warmer climates, such as those of the Pliocene, can be simulated with increased ocean heat transport. Recent evidence from North Atlantic deep sea records indicates that the oceans may very well have played a major role in the warming seen in the Pliocene.

    As a test of this hypothesis we applied Pliocene SSTs, together with an estimate of the terrestrial vegetation cover, as boundary conditions in a GISS GCM simulation (see figures 1 and 2). The GCM provides the method for investigating the atmospheric processes that might have maintained the warmer Pliocene climate while consistency between independent palynological estimates of climate and the simulation results help verify the GCM's sensitivity to altered conditions.

    In our experiments we have found both consistencies and inconsistencies between model and data-generated paleoclimate estimates. Temperature estimates show the greatest consistency, with both model and data indicating significantly warmer temperatures at high latitudes and diminished warming nearer to the equator (figure 3). The continental temperatures agree well with estimates from palynological studies, especially in the circum-North Atlantic region. This is not unexpected since that region is strongly influenced by the dramatically warmer North Atlantic SSTs. The GCM also yields temperature increases up to 10°C along the Arctic coasts and shows greatest warming in the winter. Although the original temperature increase is driven by warmer SSTs, much of the continental interior warming is generated by an ice-albedo feedback, as reduced snow cover in the warmer climate reflects less solar radiation away from the surface during winter months (see figure 4). Further warming at high latitudes comes from the increased levels of atmospheric water vapor (a greenhouse gas) which results from the warm, ice-free ocean conditions.

    Despite the generally warmer climatic conditions, some areas show overall cooling. Notably, East Africa cools by 2 to 3°C due to increased low-level cloud cover, which reflects large amounts of incoming solar radiation back to space. Very few paleo observations are available for some remote parts of Africa, but our simulation is consistent with the single palynological record that exists for that region.

    Estimates of hydrological values such as precipitation, soil moisture, and surface runoff show far less consistency between the simulation and data than do temperatures. This is not really a surprising result given that hydrologic processes are notoriously difficult to simulate using coarse-grid numerical models while terrestrial environments (what the data report) are usually quite heterogeneous.

    The most common discrepancy seems to be an underestimation by the model of wetter conditions, as interpreted from pollen records, throughout the Northern Hemisphere. For example, the model predicts lower effective moisture (precipitation minus evaporation) in western North America, but geologic records indicate wetter conditions during the Pliocene. The root of the difference seems to lie in the northern summer season, where the model's ground hydrology responds to the warmer ground temperatures by drying out. Adding to the problem, the somewhat diminished intensity of the atmospheric circulation (a result of reduced latitudinal [i.e. equator-to-pole] temperature gradients) decreases the ability of the atmosphere to carry moisture evaporated from the ocean surface over the continents, where it could rain out and replenish the soil.

    In the Arctic, Pliocene forests dominated where tundra exists today. In altering the specified vegetation cover to match this change, wetter soil moisture condtions were also assigned. Throughout the simulation, Pliocene Arctic soils remained wetter than the present day, fed by increased rainfall originating over the warmer Arctic ocean. The results indicate, at least, that these specified wet conditions are in equilibrium with the simulated climate.

    -----------------------------...

    I have already stated that global warming is real. Man made global warming is NOT.


    -----------------------------...


    Pliocene Climate
    US Geological Survey Study of Oceanic Circulation
    December 21, 2009 06:30 AM
    During the Pliocene epoch (5.3 to 2.6 million years ago) climate became cooler and drier, and seasonal, similar to modern climates. The global average temperature in the mid-Pliocene was 2—3 °C higher than today, global sea level 80 feet higher and the northern hemisphere ice sheet was ephemeral before the onset of extensive glaciation over Greenland that occurred in the late Pliocene around 3 million years ago. Scientists are looking at what climate conditions were like 3.3 to 3 million years ago, during a geologic period known as the Pliocene, and they are confident in the accuracy of their data. The Pliocene is the most recent period of sustained global warmth similar to what is projected for the 21st century. Climate during this time period offers one of the closest analogs to estimate future climate conditions.

    The USGS is leading research to reconstruct Pliocene ocean temperatures primarily using fossils contained in sediments from that time period.

    "Confidence in data, as discussed in this paper, refers to the overall quality of our Pliocene temperature estimates," said USGS scientist Marci Robinson. "For each temperature estimate, we looked at factors such as the abundance of fossils, the number of samples analyzed, fossil preservation, and the techniques used for analysis."

    Scientists from around the world are using the Pliocene reconstructions to compare climate model simulations from fourteen general circulation models. This is an international effort with models developed by the United States, Japan, France, United Kingdom, China, Germany and Norway.

    In this study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, an initial comparison was made between four existing models. Conclusions showed that the models are close in agreement with each other and USGS data, except in the North Atlantic where modeled temperatures differ slightly from the Pliocene data and from each other.

    "The processes that impact North Atlantic climate are complex, and we have analyzed many sites in the area," said Dowsett. "Based on this study, we have a high degree of confidence in our North Atlantic data, and we will wait to see how the rest of the models compare and plan future research to better understand the complexities."

    Processes that influence North Atlantic Ocean temperatures include ocean circulation, the shape and characteristics of the seafloor, and concentrations of atmospheric CO2 and other trace gases. The Earth's orbit is another factor to consider because it affects the amount of sunlight and, therefore, heat that reaches the Earth's surface.

    This Pliocene climate data reconstruction will be useful in predicting which climate model will best represent the future. Carbon dioxide concentration during the mid Pliocene has been estimated at around 400 ppmv.
    (more)
  • Icarus R. 2012/12/03 13:56:14
    Icarus
    "We can pollute until it is uninhabitable", indeed. That's what we're in the process of doing with global warming. I don't care what the planet's going to be doing in millions of years' time, but I do care what I and my immediate descendents have to live through. We're destroying the stable and habitable climate that humans have enjoyed for the last 10,000 years. You can't accept the science which shows myriads of large and frequent natural climate changes throughout the history of the Earth, without also accepting that it is now changing due to our influence.
  • R. Icarus 2012/12/03 20:35:03
    R.
    Oh yes I can , and I do. The only difference between now and nearly all the
    other periods of warming is that man now inhabits the earth. To think that we
    would willingly return to the ways of yesteryear is one, preposterous and two,
    in direct contrast to the laws of nature. Feel free to share with us all your
    brilliant ideas for saving mankind while at the same time continuing to grow
    and progress as a civilization.
  • Icarus R. 2012/12/03 21:16:10
    Icarus
    I'm glad you brought that up - I have no brilliant ideas and it seems no-one else does either. That's the problem.
  • R. Icarus 2012/12/04 10:37:44
    R.
    Then maybe WE are doing all we can but OTHERS ( China etc...)
    are not so do you tell your landlord you will quit paying rent if he
    doesn't fix that leaky pipe ? This is why we MUST pay down our
    debt before we spend a trillion on another unread bill or launch
    another failed stimulus to pay back the unions that got the
    community organizer his four more. FORWARD !
  • Icarus R. 2012/12/04 12:32:08
    Icarus
    There are plenty of things we can do to slow down global warming. Isn't something like one third of all food thrown away uneaten in the US? We could be a lot less wasteful, we could insulate our homes better, drive more economical cars and so on - those things would help but all they'll really do is get us to the same catastrophe a little later, as without massive changes in how civilisation works, we're still going to be burning the fossil fuels which cause global warming. The carbon we put back into the climate system stays there basically forever, for all practical human purposes. Slowing down the process gives us more time to adapt but it doesn't solve the problem. We need to somehow get off fossil fuels and onto a sustainable zero-carbon energy system, one which has enough capacity to power civilisation *and* start removing hundreds of billions of tons of carbon from the climate system. So far there just isn't anything that can do that.
  • R. Icarus 2012/12/05 12:53:53
    R.
    +1
    Inflate our tires more, really ? The fact is that there is no sustainable
    source, other than fossil fuel , that can supply our demands, period.
    We can do everything you listed , and in many cases are now, and
    it has done little to curb anything. When people are " given " things
    ( i.e. 48 million in food stamps in the US alone) and not made to earn
    them by working for them there will always be waste. Unless everyone
    is starving (like many poor third world countries ) there WILL be waste.
    Based on what you have listed here as things that will help, your
    suggestions point to societal shortcomings and a class in how to
    live our lives ( and WHO would be the teacher or the one to write
    the lesson plan ? ) is in order to put us on the right track. Going
    backward is NOT the way we need to go in order to right the ship.
    Is there a chapter of GreenPeace or anyother enviroMENTAL
    group active in communist China to push them to curb their
    excessive use of fossil fuels or hoarding of our natural resources ?
    I'm all for reducing our use of fossil fuels but I am also a realist.
    Our focus should be on putting America BACK TO WORK and
    give our people the financial strength they need in order to
    release the entrepeneurial genius that is nurtured ONLY in
    free country like the U...














    Inflate our tires more, really ? The fact is that there is no sustainable
    source, other than fossil fuel , that can supply our demands, period.
    We can do everything you listed , and in many cases are now, and
    it has done little to curb anything. When people are " given " things
    ( i.e. 48 million in food stamps in the US alone) and not made to earn
    them by working for them there will always be waste. Unless everyone
    is starving (like many poor third world countries ) there WILL be waste.
    Based on what you have listed here as things that will help, your
    suggestions point to societal shortcomings and a class in how to
    live our lives ( and WHO would be the teacher or the one to write
    the lesson plan ? ) is in order to put us on the right track. Going
    backward is NOT the way we need to go in order to right the ship.
    Is there a chapter of GreenPeace or anyother enviroMENTAL
    group active in communist China to push them to curb their
    excessive use of fossil fuels or hoarding of our natural resources ?
    I'm all for reducing our use of fossil fuels but I am also a realist.
    Our focus should be on putting America BACK TO WORK and
    give our people the financial strength they need in order to
    release the entrepeneurial genius that is nurtured ONLY in
    free country like the US. When people are not sure if they
    will have a job tomorrow or how they will provide their family
    with their next meal, they aren't allowed the freedom neccessary
    to focus on such things. Sadly enough , the chasing of the
    almighty " dollar " is where our problems begin and end and
    our current leadership is doing all they can to make sure that
    as many people as possible are turned against the things
    ( capitalism, personal responsibility and the pursuit of happiness)
    that made us the greatest country on earth.
    Our only course is to agree to disagree as to the source of the
    climate change we are currently experiencing. I have raised my
    children with the philosophy that no matter what the undertaking
    or task that you are involved in , the best way to leave your
    mark is to leave things in better shape than you found them.
    If you can convince 7 billion of this , MAYBE we can turn things
    around.
    (more)
  • Kirino 2012/12/02 10:29:20
  • Icarus Kirino 2012/12/02 10:37:57
    Icarus
    +4
    Thanks Rainbow... I think a lot of people just don't realise how bad things are getting. The rapid sea level rise and melting of polar ice strongly suggest that the planet is *already* warmer than at any time during the last 10,000 years of unusually stable climate which has supported all of modern human civilisation. That's not good news for a planet of 7 billion people who all need reliable agriculture, healthy oceans and a habitable climate.

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