First Thoughts: Obama's battleground edge grows
* Obama’s battleground edge grows: In NBC's first battleground map since the conventions and a slew of new state polling, President Obama has expanded his electoral-vote lead over Mitt Romney -- but only slightly. There are now 243 electoral votes in Obama’s column and 191 in Romney’s, with 104 in the Toss-up category; 270 are needed to win the presidency. Last month, before the conventions, the president was ahead 237-191. The one change: We've moved Iowa from Toss-up to Lean Obama based on our new NBC/WSJ/Marist polls and our conversations with the campaigns. Perhaps in no other state outside of Ohio and Virginia has Obama done more physical campaigning than in Iowa, and it appears to have paid off. Since April, he’s made seven visits and held 15 different events in the state, compared with Romney’s seven visits but just seven events. Re-read the comparison again -- this is a regular discrepancy between the Obama and Romney campaigns. The president packs in a lot more events, on average, when he visits a battleground state than Romney does. Solid Dem (no chance at flip): DC, DE, HI, ME (3 EVs) MD, MA, NY, RI, VT (70 electoral votes)
Likely Dem (takes a landslide to flip): CA, CT, IL, WA (94)
Lean Dem: IA, ME (1 EV) MI, MN, NJ, NM, OR, PA (79)
Toss-up: CO, FL, NV, NH, NC, OH, VA, WI (104)
Lean GOP: AZ, GA, IN, MO, NE (I EV) (49)
Likely GOP (takes a landslide to flip): AL, LA, MS, MT, ND, SC, SD, TX (79)
Solid GOP (no chance at flip): AK, AR, ID, KS, KY, NE (4 EVs) OK, TN, UT, WV, WY (63)
*** Evidence of the past week taking a toll on Romney: Speaking of our NBC/WSJ/Marist surveys, we released results from three more states last night: In both Colorado and Wisconsin, Obama is ahead by five points among likely voters, 50%-45%. And in Iowa, the president’s edge over Romney is eight, 50%-42%. These new polls -- conducted after the political firestorm over those U.S. embassy attacks and during the release of that video showing Romney talking about the “47%” -- show the toll the last week has taken on Romney. A plurality of likely voters view the GOP presidential nominee in a negative light in all three states. In Colorado, his fav/unfav is 43%-46%; in Iowa, it’s 42%-50%; and in Wisconsin, it’s 43%-46%. By contrast, out of last week’s three NBC/WSJ/Marist polls in Florida, Ohio, and Virginia, just one of them (Ohio) found Romney with an under-water fav/unfav. Meanwhile, Obama’s fav/unfav scores in Colorado (51%-45%), Iowa (53%-42%), and Wisconsin (51%-44%) are all above water and more importantly above 50%. By the way, do note that favorable ratings, job ratings, and ballot tests are all starting to converge.
- Studied 2012/09/21 19:18:36
Actually, if you are going to pay attention to the polls and the media, you need to look further and see just who those polls are polling. Almost everyone of them polls 6%-15% more democrats.reply
