FACT CHECK: Buyer beware in health debate

By CALVIN WOODWARD, Associated Press
–
2 hours ago

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Barack Obama promises nothing will change
for people who like their health coverage except it'll become more
affordable, but the facts don't back him up. Mitt Romney groundlessly
calls the health care law a slayer of jobs certain to deepen the
national debt.

Welcome to the health care debate 2.0. As the claims fly, buyer beware.

After
the Supreme Court upheld the law last week, Obama stepped forward to
tell Americans what good will come from it. Romney was quick to lay out
the harm. But some of the evidence they gave to the court of public
opinion was suspect.

A look at their claims and how they compare with the facts:

___

OBAMA:
"If you're one of the more than 250 million Americans who already have
health insurance, you will keep your health insurance. This law will
only make it more secure and more affordable."

ROMNEY: "Obamacare
also means that for up to 20 million Americans, they will lose the
insurance they currently have, the insurance that they like and they
want to keep."

THE FACTS: Nothing in the law ensures that people
happy with their policies now can keep them. Employers will continue to
have the right to modify coverage or even drop it, and some are expected
to do so as more insurance alternatives become available to the
population under the law. Nor is there any guarantee that coverage will
become cheaper, despite the subsidies many people will get.

Americans
may well end up feeling more secure about their ability to obtain and
keep coverage once insurance companies can no longer deny, terminate or
charge more for coverage for those in poor health. But particular health
insurance plans will have no guarantee of ironclad security. Much can
change, including the cost.

The non-partisan Congressional Budget
Office has estimated that the number of workers getting employer-based
coverage could drop by several million, as some workers choose new plans
in the marketplace or as employers drop coverage altogether. Companies
with more than 50 workers would have to pay a fine for terminating
insurance, but in some cases that would be cost-effective for them.

Obama's
soothing words for those who are content with their current coverage
have been heard before, rendered with different degrees of accuracy.
He's said nothing in the law requires people to change their plans, true
enough. But the law does not guarantee the status quo for anyone,
either.

So where does Romney come up with 20 million at risk of losing their current plans?

He
does so by going with the worst-case scenario in the budget office's
analysis. Researchers thought it most likely that employer coverage
would decline by 3 to 5 million, but the range of possibilities was
broad: It could go up by as much as 3 million or down by as much as 20
million.

___

ROMNEY: After saying the new law cuts Medicare
by $500 billion and raises taxes by a like amount, adds: "And even with
those cuts and tax increases, Obamacare adds trillions to our deficits
and to our national debt, and pushes those obligations onto coming
generations."

THE FACTS: In its most recent complete estimate, in
March 2011, the Congressional Budget Office said the new health care law
would actually reduce the federal budget deficit by $210 billion over
the next 10 years. In the following decade, the law would continue to
reduce deficits by about one-half of one percent of the nation's gross
domestic product, the office said.

The congressional budget
scorekeepers acknowledged their projections are "quite uncertain"
because of the complexity of the issue and the assumptions involved,
which include the assumption that all aspects of the law are implemented
as written. But the CBO assessment offers no backup for Romney's claim
that the law "adds trillions to our deficits."

___

OBAMA:
"And by this August, nearly 13 million of you will receive a rebate from
your insurance company because it spent too much on things like
administrative costs and CEO bonuses and not enough on your health
care."

THE FACTS: Rebates are coming, but not nearly that many
Americans are likely to get those checks and for many of those who do,
the amount will be decidedly modest.

The government acknowledges
it does not know how many households will see rebates in August from a
provision of the law that makes insurance companies give back excess
money spent on overhead instead of health care delivery. Altogether, the
rebates that go out will benefit nearly 13 million people. But most of
the benefit will be indirect, going to employers because they cover most
of the cost of insurance provided in the workplace.

Employers can
plow all the rebate money, including the workers' share, back into the
company's health plan, or pass along part of it.

The government
says some 4 million people who are due rebates live in households that
purchased coverage directly from an insurance company, not through an
employer, and experts say those households are the most likely to get a
rebate check directly.

The government says the rebates have an
average value of $151 per household. But employers, who typically pay 70
to 80 percent of premiums, are likely to get most of that.

___

ROMNEY: "Obamacare raises taxes on the American people by approximately $500 billion."

THE
FACTS: The tax increases fall heavily on upper-income people, health
insurance companies, drug makers and medical device manufacturers.

People
who fail to obtain health insurance as required by the law will face a
tax penalty, although that's expected to hit relatively few because the
vast majority of Americans have insurance and many who don't will end up
getting it. Also, a 10 percent tax has been imposed on tanning bed use
as part of the health care law. There are no other across-the-board tax
increases in the law, although some tax benefits such as flexible
savings accounts are scaled back. Of course, higher taxes on businesses
can be passed on to the consumer in the form of higher prices.

Individuals
making over $200,000 and couples making over $250,000 will pay 0.9
percent more in Medicare payroll tax and a 3.8 percent tax on
investments. As well, a tax starts in 2018 on high-value insurance
plans.

___

OBAMA: "Because of the Affordable Care Act, young
adults under the age of 26 are able to stay on their parents' health
care plans, a provision that's already helped 6 million young
Americans."

THE FACTS: Obama is overstating this benefit of his
health law, and his own administration knows better. The Department of
Health and Human Services, in a June 19 news release, said 3.1 million
young adults would be uninsured were it not for the new law. Obama's
number comes from a June 8 survey by the Commonwealth Fund, a health
policy foundation. It said 6.6 million young adults joined or stayed on
their parents' health plans who wouldn't have been able to absent the
law. But that number includes some who switched to their parents' plans
from other coverage, Commonwealth Fund officials told the Los Angeles
Times.

___

ROMNEY: "Obamacare is a job-killer."

THE
FACTS: The CBO estimated in 2010 that the law would reduce the amount of
labor used in the economy by roughly half a percent.

But that's
mostly because the law will give many people the opportunity to retire,
stay at home with family or switch to part-time work, since they will be
able to get health insurance more easily outside of their jobs. That
voluntary retreat from the workforce, made possible by the law's
benefits, is not the same as employers slashing jobs because of the
law's costs, as Romney implies.

The law's penalties on employers
who don't provide health insurance might cause some companies to hire
fewer low-wage workers or to hire more part-timers instead of full-time
employees, the budget office said. But the main consequence would still
be from more people choosing not to work.

Apart from the budget
office and other disinterested parties that study the law, each side in
the debate uses research sponsored by interest groups, often slanted, to
buttress its case. Romney cites a Chamber of Commerce online survey in
which nearly three-quarters of respondents said the law would dampen
their hiring.

The chamber is a strong opponent of the law, having
run ads against it. Its poll was conducted unscientifically and is
therefore not a valid measure of business opinion.

Associated Press writers Andrew Taylor and Jim Drinkard contributed to this report.

Copyright © 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

Question for the viewing audience: If Mitt Romney is viewed upon as the ideological godfather of the mandate, what faith should any independents or swing voters have in Romney to give a full repeal of Obamacare? Do you think he will or do you think he'll merely alter the mandate to serve conservative interests? Do you like Obamacare? Do you think electing a third party will change things? Discuss!