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Employment Report: Blatant And Outrageous Lies

snipe 2012/02/04 03:37:10



There are times when one questions a report as possibly being wrong or in error, and then there are times when one has to raise a flag and say "This is an intentionally false picture being presented by a government agency."


I'm in the latter camp with this one, and it is rare for me to brand something as not possibly wrong and in error, but intentionally fraudulent.



Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 243,000 in January, and the unemployment rate decreased to 8.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job growth was widespread in the private sector, with large employment gains in professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and manufacturing. Government employment changed little over the month.


I wish I could take this report, pick it apart at the household level, and find confirmation. Remember that last month the alleged 200,000 jobs that were gained were a phantom; when one looked inside the household data we found instead deterioration in both the employment participation rate and a decline in the absolute number of employed persons, while population rose. That is, the actual counts (as opposed to black-box statements) said that the labor picture deteriorated in December, contrary to the reported numbers.


This month it was worse. Far worse.


Let's start with the "base picture" that is causing the cheering:


"Not in labor force" numbers leaped upward on an annualized basis (seasonally adjusted the "right way") and what's worse on a raw basis 1.572 million people exited the labor force last month.


This is reflected in the percentage of those not in the labor force as a percentage of the working-age population, which hit an all-time high going back to the initiation of the data series I've tracked since 1999:


That's 0.6% of the entire labor force that departed the working population in one month, three times the alleged drop in the unemployment rate. This means that internally, the numbers were even worse than they first appear!


Indeed, the total number of employed persons fell. A lot. To put a number on it, the total number of employed persons fell by 737,000 by actual count.


Now the cheerleaders will state that this is a common thing in January, and indeed it is. But the correct adjustment is to look at the population increase and subtract that back off as well. In other words, we take the loss of employment and add the population growth. When we do this we get a whopping 2.422 million in the wrong direction which was bested only by the -2.618 million in January of 2009 through the process of this downturn!


In fact other than January 2009 there has never been a single month in my table, which dates back to 1999, that put up a worse combined number. This "performance" rates a literal "second from utter despair and disaster", and the employment rate shows it:



http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=201459

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  • keeper 2012/02/04 03:57:19
    keeper
    +18
    I don't believe anything they say... statistics can always be painted the way you want them to be.

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  • Mark P. ProudPr... 2012/02/04 20:32:46 (edited)
    Mark P.
    +2
    The reason nothing has passed in the Senate is Harry "the weasel" Reid. He has refused to bring anything to a vote put fourth by the Republicans. Obama had 2 years of his administration to pass anything he wanted. He had a filibuster proof Senate and Congress. He added 5 trillion in debt and no jobs.
  • Common ... Mark P. 2012/02/04 23:11:44
    Common Sense Conservative
    +1
    Almost $6 Trillion
  • ProudPr... Common ... 2012/02/05 01:48:17
    ProudProgressive
    More like about 1.5.

    xxxxxx
  • Common ... ProudPr... 2012/02/05 05:47:00
    Common Sense Conservative
    +1
    Oh no, it's just under $6 TRILLION. Nice try though
  • ProudPr... Mark P. 2012/02/05 01:47:32
    ProudProgressive
    The President never had a filibuster proof Senate. And in the early days, the President was naive enough to reach across the aisle over and over to try to achieve acceptable compromises only to have his hand slapped away over and over again. He has not added $5 trillion to the debt, only about $1.5 trillion, less than the Bush tax giveaways to millionaires alone, and less than the Bush illegal war in Iraq alone. And he has added well over 3 million jobs during his term, including 243,000 in the past month.
  • Common ... ProudPr... 2012/02/04 23:11:09
    Common Sense Conservative
    +1
    Why should they get higher taxes?
  • ProudPr... Common ... 2012/02/05 01:48:48
    ProudProgressive
    Because they haven't paid their fair share of taxes for the last 30 years.
  • Common ... ProudPr... 2012/02/05 05:48:02
    Common Sense Conservative
    +1
    What, I guess you're answering some other question. If not, comedy and...


    Brilliant!!!
  • Smitty ProudPr... 2012/02/04 23:42:53
    Smitty
    +1
    First, there is no such thing as some magical job creation bill. In a free society with with an economy based in capitalism, jobs are created when the government keeps the hell out of the free market. Government is the biggest obstacle to a free market...and free people.
    Second, the House has sent the senate 17 bills that Dirty Harry Reid has "tabled".. and somehow you have deduced that its the republicans fault. Nice try and enjoy the Kool Aid
  • ProudPr... Smitty 2012/02/05 01:55:08
    ProudProgressive
    None of the bills the Republicans claim were "job creation" bills were actually that. The Republicans have not passed ONE job creation bill. They think that if they propose another "bridge to nowhere" and that incidentally creates a job for a toll collector that that makes it a jobs bill. It doesn't. It is true that some of the Republican bills would incidentally create small numbers of jobs, but the Republicans have not made a single proposal whose intention was primarily to stimulate job growth.

    http://www.dailykos.com/story...
  • Theresa ProudPr... 2012/02/04 20:04:11
    Theresa
    +1
    Really? Can you honestly say you are better today than in 2007? I know I can not!
  • ProudPr... Theresa 2012/02/05 01:56:05
    ProudProgressive
    Are you serious? Can anyone in this entire nation honestly say they were better off in 2007 than they are now?
  • Theresa ProudPr... 2012/02/05 04:06:45
    Theresa
    +1
    In 2007 we had a roaring economy the effects of the Democrat corruption had not yet spread to the private sector but soon it would. The average wage in my life was 150,000 I was a small business owner. I was happy even though I was spending 90 hours a week working. Compared to today. I work a part time job less than 20hours a week. I get no gov't assistance. I am still an independent Contractor. I earn less than 6000. So you tell me which is better?
  • CODE 11 ProudPr... 2012/02/05 17:04:22 (edited)
    CODE 11
    +1
    I sure can. My pension as gone down by 120.00 dollars a month. My son hasn't been able to find a full time job in over a year, and has just moved back in with us. My tax withholding doubled last year. I just paid 3.37 a gal for gas. My stock account has dropped 60 % . Need i go on.
  • Common ... ProudPr... 2012/02/04 23:10:22
    Common Sense Conservative
    +1
    Where's the $6 TRILLION going to come from?
  • ProudPr... Common ... 2012/02/05 02:01:58
    ProudProgressive
    First of all, I corrected you above. President Obama has only added about 1.5 trillion to the national debt since he took office. The remainder of the increase since 2009 comes from the Bush tax cuts, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and of course the Republicans' enabling of American companies to make profits by outsourcing American jobs and thus further reducing the nation's revenues.

    But as to reducing the debt, the first things we should do should include the following:

    1. Restore the top marginal tax rate to where it should be, around 75%
    2. End the myth that capital gains are entitled to lower tax rates than earned income.
    3. Initiate a transaction tax on all securities transactions.
    4. Cut the budget intelligently to save another 2 or 3 trillion (of course, President Obama offered to make 4 trillion in cuts when the Republicans were holding the nation's debt ceiling hostage and forced our credit rating down for the first time in history, but let's conveniently forget that the Republicans blocked that one too.)
    5. Invest in America's infrastructure, thus both creating thousands of needed jobs and improving the efficiency (and the profit margin) of just about every business in America.
  • Theresa ProudPr... 2012/02/05 04:09:15
    Theresa
    +1
    Again I question you what is a Tax Cut? Answer it does not exist! The idea of a tax cut presupposes that there is a set amount which the gov't will receive. Which is no where close to the truth. It is all a projection. Which means it is not real!
  • Common ... ProudPr... 2012/02/05 05:48:53
    Common Sense Conservative
    +1
    I can't read your post because it's almost $6 TRILLION. When you understand that, we'll talk.

    Brilliant!!
  • CODE 11 ProudPr... 2012/02/05 17:17:10
    CODE 11
    +1
    You could take 100% and it wouldn't pay off our debt !!
    Capital gains tax of 15 % is available to everyone in the USA
    securites tax..right lets tax everything.
    Now Obama wants another 1.5 trillion increase..so he can spend some more.
    That's why Obama just shot down the pipeline..we don't need thousands of new jobs..or lower gas prices..and depenentcy on middle East oil.
  • Tec9 ProudPr... 2012/02/05 02:14:20 (edited)
    Tec9
    They're shooting for reinstating the Feudal system. They have already set up the rich with tax breaks. Now all they need to do is crush the working class down to serfdom and they're set for life.
  • Theresa Tec9 2012/02/05 04:11:25
    Theresa
    +1
    What tax breaks are you talking about and what rich are you referring? I think your anger is directed toward the wrong people. The only people benefiting is the people who control the Federal Reserve Bank cartel. No one else!
  • CODE 11 Tec9 2012/02/05 17:18:23
    CODE 11
    +1
    That's why the Democratic Party has to go.
  • RogerRover 2012/02/04 18:50:19
    RogerRover
    +3
    Haters hate...Liars lie... OB loves ONLY himself and finds it FAR more natural to lie than to tell the truth.. Does he care about this country? You've got to be kidding.. Employment rate? This administration will NOT tell the truth.. The truth would (and does) totally damn this presidency as one of the WORST in history. The emperor has no clothes. Our country is in a shambles because of his (barf) hope and change and fundamental change. Marxist style wealth redistribution is NOT the answer. When will America catch on??
  • Tec9 RogerRover 2012/02/05 02:05:40
    Tec9
    What planet were you on from 2000 through 2008?? The worst Presidency in history is already in the history books. George Dubya and Darth Cheney have gone down in infamy along with Hitler, Hirohito and Mussolini. The dynamic duo did more damage to this country than World War II.
  • Theresa Tec9 2012/02/05 04:15:43
    Theresa
    +1
    I see you obviously never lived through this time period. I suppose you let others control your thoughts. It is very sad.
  • RogerRover Tec9 2012/02/05 04:22:59
    RogerRover
    +1
    Enjoy your delusion.
  • CODE 11 Tec9 2012/02/05 17:19:39
    CODE 11
    +1
    No Obama is still the President..the worst is still going.
  • Theresa RogerRover 2012/02/05 04:14:31
    Theresa
    +2
    One point it is not Marxist redistribution. If it was most people would be not as impoverished. This is Fascism at its worse. The Federal Reserve is the only one benefiting. Almost all our debt is now held by them. The federal Gov't now owns all our mortgages. Which inturn is done by borrowing money from the Federal Reserve. This means the Federal Reserve owns you!
  • RogerRover Theresa 2012/02/06 15:00:30
    RogerRover
    The FED has OWNED and CONTROLLED this country for a long time. The FED is not a federal agency of the U.S. (never has been) We don't own them, THEY own us. (as in U.S.) Are we still a sovereign nation? They let us THINK so. Allow (basically) elections and and figure head leaders to project the image that we are a 'free' nation. We went from a REPUBLIC to a watered down DEMOCRACY many, many many years ago. We are no longer a free nation, but a legally owned CORPORATION. Have you checked out the information about 'ACT OF 1871'? I tend to give it credability.
  • Theresa RogerRover 2012/02/06 17:29:45
    Theresa
    Oh I know all about this How the corporation of the United States based in the City of London was formed. How is absorbed the trapping of the Republic. That the president is the CEO. That the congress are corporation's officers. Yes I know all about this.
  • RED DAWN 2012/02/04 17:12:47
    RED DAWN
    +3
    We all know they are wrong by their own mouth.How can there be an increase in manufacturing when all the SOBs on the left say that all the manufacturing jobs have moved overseas.I know our liberal friends are bring in Japanese contractors to do the infrastructure jobs are they counting these also or are they counting to jobs created in Japan.
  • schjaz 2012/02/04 16:49:54
    schjaz
    +5
    More twisting and turning. I heard Shepard Smith report that the stock market was up and that means more jobs. Huh? Why would that mean more jobs? More POSSIBLE jobs, perhaps...but what the heck?
  • snipe schjaz 2012/02/04 22:18:33
    snipe
    +2
    Shep's just reporting was he's reading. The Stock Market is staying up because of all the free money being pumped into the system by the Fed and the European Central Bank, which is flowing straight into asset prices. And for now, anyway, as long as this ocean of cash keeps flowing, then unemployment, housing conditions, and sluggish GDP growth is pretty unimportant to an investor.
  • Smitty snipe 2012/02/04 23:46:19
    Smitty
    +2
    You`re abosolutely right about that, unfortunately the money will run out but worse than that, not long after the money runs out is when inflation will kick in...and thats when the Obama will hit the fan.
  • Theresa Smitty 2012/02/05 04:17:33
    Theresa
    +3
    Actually by pushing such large quantities of worthless currency dilutes the savings of others. This is called Hyper inflation and it is about to sweep across the world.
  • Smitty Theresa 2012/02/05 04:51:08
    Smitty
    +2
    Weimar Republic all over again
  • Theresa Smitty 2012/02/05 04:52:03
    Theresa
    +2
    Yes but this time it is at a global scale!
  • Smitty Theresa 2012/02/05 04:55:23
    Smitty
    +1
    This is the ultimate goal of the progressive marxists
  • Theresa Smitty 2012/02/05 04:59:09
    Theresa
    +1
    Yes it is to kill off as many people as possible. They call it Culling.
  • schjaz snipe 2012/02/06 14:32:31
    schjaz
    +1
    agreed....and it does not affect unemployment. money in the system does not create jobs....all I hear about are more lay-offs. i hear the Twilight Zone theme. what they say is real is not.

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