5-14-2008 / Demarcates for Hillary! Do you all still think Hillary can still win? Well I took the time to do real math under Hillary’s math, which includes FL and MI. REMEMBER! This is only a possible outcome and is not factual. However, here is what I came up with. You all can see for your self why I think Hillary can’t win.
Kentucky only has 51 delegates. Based on many polls it is believed that she will win. So I gave her 56%. She gets 28 delegates. That gives Obama 23 delegates. Then the polls suggest that Montana will go to Obama. It has a total of 16 delegates. To be fair I gave him 56%. He gets 9 delegates. Hillary will get 7. The polls say that Oregon will go to Obama as well. It has 52 delegates. So that’s 56% for him. He gets 29 delegates. Hillary will get 23. The polls also suggest that South Dakota will go to Obama. It has 15 of them. Another 56% to him. He gets 9 delegates. Hillary will get 6. Then the polls suggest that Hillary will take Puerto Rico. It has 55 of them. So she gets 56%. That will give her 31 delegates. Obama will get 24. Then for sake of argument lets say that the remaining super delegates are split 50 – 50. That will give each of them 120 delegates.
Now lets do some math. Hillary- 28 + 7 + 23 + 6 + 31 + 120 = 184 delegates added to her 1718 = 1902 delegates. Under her math, which includes FL & MI, it goes like this: As it stands Hillary has won both of those states by about 55%. So I’ll give her the 55% and add it to her total. That gives her 102 more delegates. So 1902 + 102 + 2004 delegates. So now we can see that she wont get a win even if she had both FL & MI. The total to win under the current math is 2025. Under her math to win you need 2210 delegates.
Remember that Obama will get 45% of Fl & MI as well. That will give him 83 delegates. Let’s add that to his totals. 23 + 9 + 29 + 9 + 24 + 120 super’s = 214 + his already earned 1884 = 2098 a win under the current math. Now for the added 83 from FL & MI. 2098 + 83 = 2181 not winning under her math but a lot closer then she is.
With Hillary’s math she and Obama will fight this out in court. That is the only way she can win. I think that is what she wants. She wants to take us voters down a hard long drug out battle in a courtroom fighting for months over this. Do you all really want to go down that road? Ask yourselves that question then try to get in goodnights worth of sleep. Good luck!
Oh’ one more thing! I did not add the delegates of John Edwards. He had 19 of them. If you add those to Hillary’s totals you get this. 2004 + 19 = 2023. It’s still not a win no mater who’s math you use. Add the number to Obama’s, you get 2181 + 19 = 2200. ‘A clear-cut win’ under the current math but not a win under her math. It is clear to me that Hillary is looking for a long court battle and wishing for a miracle.