Do You Believe That Any Country Has The Right To Have Nuclear Weapons?

Editor’s note: Geneive Abdo is director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute in Washington. The views in this article are solely those of Geneive Abdo.

By Geneive Abdo — Special to CNN

Iran is set for nuclear talks
Wednesday with members of the U.N. Security Council, and the Obama
administration, as well as some Iranian and European Union officials,
expressed optimism that a compromise will be reached.

But it is useful to examine Israel’s long-term objectives for a bit of a reality check.

During a recent trip to Israel, where I met government officials, one
issue became clear: for many in the Israeli government, Iran has
already crossed the red line. Unless Iran halts all enrichment and
dismantles its nuclear program, the diplomatic process is irrelevant to
many Israeli officials.

The Israelis are not willing to wait for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to
make the political decision to move toward developing a nuclear weapon;
by then, it is too late. This is a major point of difference between
Israel and the United States and the European Union — one which the
nuclear talks will not resolve. The Americans and Europeans are trying
to buy time by stating repeatedly that Khamenei has not yet made the
decision to develop a nuclear bomb. But this is of no comfort to the
Israelis.

According to a report Saturday in the New York Times, Obama
administration officials said the P5+1 — the five permanent members of
the Security Council plus Germany — were prepared to offer a deal
to the Iranians that would include easing restrictions on the sale of
technology, such as airplane parts and assistance to Iran’s energy
complex.

Even if Iran were to accept such a deal, it is highly unlikely the
regime would make concessions in turn to meet Israeli demands.

Iran demands the right to a nuclear program, including enrichment.
But the Israelis will accept only the long-standing P5+1 position of no
enrichment. Even if, as former Iranian ambassador Hossein Mousavian
suggests, that an offer be made to limit enrichment at 3.5% to 5%, this
is not enough for Israel.

Iran also wants an end to sanctions. But the sanctions are the only
measures that have pacified Israel. There is talk that the P5+1 might
offer a deal that would involve pushing back the scheduled oil embargo
on Iran, which is due to take effect July 1. This would only antagonize
Israel.

Iran could agree to permit inspectors full surveillance of its
centrifuges. But the Israelis have little or no trust in Iran and
believe that while inspections might address the part of Iran’s nuclear
program that is visible, they wouldn’t do much to monitor nuclear
technology the Iranians may have hidden from the international
community.

So why all the optimism? The P5+1 needs to buy time to avert a
unilateral attack by Israel. And the Iranians need ongoing diplomacy to
push back the oil embargo.

As the talks draw near, high-ranking Iranian officials have been
making daily statements predicting the talks will be a great success.
For once, it seems Iran and the West are on the same page.

The only negative statements have been made by Saeed Jalili, head of
Iran's Supreme National Security Council and chief nuclear negotiator.
Jalili mentioned Thursday that Iran considers using nuclear energy its
right and will not budge from this position.

Iran’s development path is not reversible,
he said, adding that any additional pressure on Iran will only result
in further resistance and progress. In the long term, these statements
are likely to more accurately reflect Iran’s position.

The Israeli clock has already run out. Whatever patience Israel is
demonstrating is merely to respect President Obama’s wish to get through
the November election without an incident.

But it is likely that after November, there will no longer be a pretense of optimism from any side.

The views in this article are solely those of Geneive Abdo.

So Iran plans to have Nuclear Weapons....is this OK? With the U.S. invading

so may other Countries for no real reason, I believe we will be seeing more

Countries having them. What do you think and what is the reason behind

this?