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Do the Polls Show that the Election is over and Obama Will be Reelected?

atomikmom 2012/09/11 02:35:43
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Do the Polls Show that the Election is Over and Obama Will be Reelected?














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OLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERAThe
polls don’t look that great for Romney at this time. A couple of polls
have Obama up five points. I don’t understand how President Obama’s
approval rating is around 42 percent and yet 49 percent of voters say
they’re going to vote for him again.


I suspect that there are people who disapprove of Obama and Romney
and won’t vote for anybody in November. Some are disenchanted Democrats
and Republicans. Of course, there are the Libertarians, followers of Ron
Paul, and Constitution Party supporters who most likely did not vote in
2008 so their non-votes don’t mean much since they’ve already been
factored in. Or is it out?


I got an email today from someone who’s going to vote for the Constitution Party candidate. Here’s what he wrote:


“I say no to the ‘lesser of two evils.’ I
am voting for the Constitution Party and only the Constitution Party.
Calling me an idiot does not intimidate me. Romney/Obama [are] all the
same to me. Remember the Republican Party was a third party when they
put a man in the White House. Let Obama win. Let Romney win. Either way
America loses.”


What has the Constitution Party done since it was established in
1991? No seats in the Senate or House of Representatives. No
governorships. No state upper houses. No state lower houses. If a third
party is going ot be successful, it would help if it had some successes.


Polls can be used to dampen voter enthusiasm. People see a poll
showing Obama ahead when the economy is in the toilet and wonder how
it’s possible. Why bother voting since the election is over . . . in
September!


I wouldn’t be surprised that the poll numbers are being screwed with. There’s just no way to prove it.





A little history might help showing how polls at this point in an
election are not necessarily indicators of who’s going to win in
November.


Gallup shows that Obama is leading Mitt Romney by 4 points after the
DNC Convention. Consider that in the 1980 election Gallup showed that
Jimmy Carter was leading Ronald Reagan by 4 points in mid September. In
October Carter was up 8 by points. Going into the last two weeks before
the election, Gallup published a poll showing Carter up six among likely
voters.


Ronald Reagan ended up winning by 9 points and taking 44 states in
the electoral count — 489 to 49. Third party candidate John Anderson got
6.6% of the vote and made no impact on the final results.


The most lopsided polling spread after the Democratic National
Convention has to be the 1988 election between George H. W. Bush and
Michael Dukakis. A Gallup Poll had Dukakis up by 17 percent — 55 to 38
percent. A four-point difference is nearly a tie in statistical analysis
of polls. It’s within the margin of error. Breitbart reports that The New York Times stated the following from July 26, 1988:


“This was among the findings of a national public opinion poll of 948 registered voters conducted late last week for Newsweek
magazine by the Gallup Organization. The telephone interviews took
place on July 21, which was the last night of the convention, and on the
night after that.


Fifty-five percent of the 948 registered
voters interviewed in the poll said they preferred to see Mr. Dukakis
win the 1988 Presidential election, while 38 percent said they preferred
to see Mr. Bush win.


In the end, the enthusiasm factor will determine who wins. Which
party will crawl over broken glass to vote? Let’s hope it’s the
Republicans.

Read More: http://www.godfatherpolitics.com

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  • Peaches 2012/10/19 23:20:17
    YES
    Peaches
    "My opinion is that what the GOP left Obama when he took office was a big mess and that the GOP would not pass the bills that he could achieve to do a better job in getting the economy in a better situation. Like forget the Democrats. Put your thinking hats on now! Do you think the GOP would have Extended umenployment to try and get those out of work time to downside,are helped you to try and save your mortages are helped the seniors with a stephen payment plus helped the Auto and banks stay afloat. NO! Romney is for the rich only if you think times are rough now you had better pull your boot straps up for the biggest upset in the economy you have ever experienced. I can go on and one about what Obama has tried to helped the poor and middle class with dont'forget the punch that he has given for Education and tax cuts. Think hard before you Vote or get you some lanterns and potbelly stoves.
  • MOMMA THOMAS 2012/10/04 00:27:52
    Undecided
    MOMMA THOMAS
    DEPENDS ON THE POLLS' LOCATIONS, AND THE PEOPLE SELECTED TO RESPOND TO THE POLLS.
  • HillaryLover 2012/10/02 09:16:30
    NO
    HillaryLover
    The polls show what people and organizations that pay for the polls want the polls to show. Polls are like the wisdom founded in Chinese cookies. Mostly cow pies.
  • Studied 2012/10/01 23:54:43
    NO
    Studied
    The polls change daily and as of today they are showing virtual ties all over the place.
  • Kurt 2012/09/25 20:59:29
    Undecided
    Kurt
    Not sure.
  • eewymer 2012/09/23 20:59:03
    YES
    eewymer
    He will be reelected. Period.
  • sidramone@ymail.com 2012/09/22 07:14:11
    YES
    sidramone@ymail.com
    Not so much the poles available to the public. But the poles ran by the campaigns to plan their next moves, got Romney's campaign head to jump ship
  • maquignon 2012/09/20 21:18:07
    NO
    maquignon
    Jimmy Cartger was way ahead in the polls at this point!!! The incumbent SHOULD be way ahead. The incumbent wins 80% of the time. Undecideds split 80-20 AGAINST THE INCUMBENT!! Obama SHOULD BE 10-15 points ahead at this point. The fact that Romney is even actually means that he is AHEAD!!!
  • Stevethinks 2012/09/18 00:58:49
    YES
    Stevethinks
    Yes!
  • mrdrawingguy 2012/09/17 09:27:07
    YES
    mrdrawingguy
    +1
    The night Romney pulled those shenanigans on Ron Paul at the convention was the night he lost the election. Had it been a fair contest, I might have been able to hold my nose and vote Romney. I think he forever lost over 10% of Republicans that night, and it's gonna cost him big time in November. So yeah, I think it's been over since August 28.

    ron paul delegates convention
  • sidramo... mrdrawi... 2012/10/02 16:30:33
    sidramone@ymail.com
    The RNC gave Obama his second term in Tampa when they made it clear conservatives have no voice in the GOP, and changed the rules so we never will.

    Time to leave romney hanging out to dry.
  • Todd The Libertarian 2012/09/13 06:32:45
    Undecided
    Todd The Libertarian
    +1
    It shows what a jackass Romnuts is.Conservatives Johnson is on the ballott.I predict hairspray mitt n lyan Ryan come in third!
  • FPSRules 2012/09/13 00:40:02
    NO
    FPSRules
    The pols show that the mainstream media is complicit in covering-up for comrade Obama and presenting Obama as something other than the lying, commie sleaze he really is.
  • on time, again 2012/09/12 15:48:16
    NO
    on time, again
    fool me once OK but as much foolishness as I have seen is just nuts.
  • Iamfree 2012/09/12 02:47:00
    NO
    Iamfree
    Well, considering Carter was 4 points ahead of Reagan at this time in the 1980 election, I would say a great big "no."
  • vis_viva Iamfree 2012/09/21 02:54:17
    vis_viva
    Really?


    Check out "Exploding the Regan Comeback Myth" by Nate Cole in The New Republic
    http://www.tnr.com/blog/elect...
  • Iamfree vis_viva 2012/09/22 05:27:15
    Iamfree
    LOL, The New Republic? Are you serious? You do know that is a left-wing publication don't you?
  • vis_viva Iamfree 2012/09/22 14:19:27
    vis_viva
    The article is left wing. The data not so much. There was, however the complicating factor of John Anderson not shown in the graph. I was too young to vote at that time but I was fairly politically aware for my age. I recall my dad (a lifelong Democrat and a Union man) was for John Anderson. When I asked him why he said he likes HOW that candidate thinks. That really stuck with me. I try to take thought process into account as much as possible. This is why I tend to vote for pragmatists more than ideologues.
  • kurtanderson1 2012/09/11 20:09:35
    NO
    kurtanderson1
    Sounds like the wishful thinking of the state-run media is getting a little loud.
  • Temlakos~POTL~PWCM~JLA~☆ 2012/09/11 18:36:52
    NO
    Temlakos~POTL~PWCM~JLA~☆
    Obama has still never "broken Fifty" among likely voters.
  • Daniel O'Hern 2012/09/11 18:04:54
    YES
    Daniel O'Hern
    It is a no brainer Romney save ur money and go back home
  • Bronar 2012/09/11 16:16:35
    YES
    Bronar
    In fact there's no reason for you Dems to even go out and vote. He's done such a great job he's a shoe-in.
  • RED DAWN 2012/09/11 15:58:56
    NO
    RED DAWN
    I think if obama wins another 4 years there will be an armed uprising.Not agianst obama himself but the SOB's that voted him in again.If I knew this would happen then I would vote for obama my self.
  • vis_viva RED DAWN 2012/09/21 02:58:04
    vis_viva
    Is that supposed to be scary to the half the nation that's going to vote for him? I say this to every bully in the internet who thinks they get to threaten me because they don't like who I'm voting for. Come and get me tough guy. You don't scare me one bit.

    Superman Earth One
  • RED DAWN vis_viva 2012/09/21 16:49:25
    RED DAWN
    No not scary because scared people tend to run and hide.I like for it to be easy so just stay in your moms basement.
  • vis_viva RED DAWN 2012/09/22 04:03:09
    vis_viva
    Sorry other that the occasional visit I haven't lived with my parents since I was 18. But don't worry I'll be in the house I paid for by working since I was old enough (with the occasional quarters off while I was in college). I'll be either working or tending to my family. You know all that stuff conservatives cannot seem to accept we liberals do too.

    One thing I won't be doing is being afraid of internet tough guys who get threatening and belligerent when half the country doesn't agree with them in an election.
  • Golden Panther 2012/09/11 15:53:31
    Undecided
    Golden Panther
    +1
    Although it appears odumbo has the lead, many in the pollster community feel the variants are skewed and subject to misinterpretation and these folks reflect on history to make their case that Romney will win. They site that Jimma Carter had a significant lead over Reagan in mid September and Dukakis had a huge lead over Bush in 1998 and both were beaten with landslide numbers. Thus, history would appear favorable to Mitt's cause...but the problem is the country has changed radically since those days. Now we have far too many illegal and legal aliens; tons more qualified and unqualified cheats suckling at the entitlement trough; unions now have greater power and enforcement strength; 99% of blacks will go with odumbo for the obvious reason, race; the liberal press is beyond the pale leftist; communists such as Soros and his ilk will spend billions to elect the despot; the college crowd is more clueless then ever before and thus will opt for odumbo; and last but not least, we all know the ability and culpability of the demoncrats to bribe, jackboot, rig, and other wise steal elections. I pray I am wrong but my fear is that the contumacious and mendacity of this worst president ever might win.
  • Will Advocate of PHAET 2012/09/11 15:08:28
    Undecided
    Will Advocate of  PHAET
    +2
    The only poll that counts is the one in Nov!
  • jeane 2012/09/11 15:07:52
    NO
    jeane
    +4
    Please remember Jimmy Carter was up by five points at this time - we all know what happened to him! Stop being fooled by the propaganda machine of the MSM. Owebama is in for the fight of his life - and he is losing.
  • sammanilla 2012/09/11 15:07:27
    NO
    sammanilla
    +3
    Obama had the pro Romney Gallup poll altered. Just like everything else Obama, polls lie.

    obama pro romney gallup poll altered obama polls lie
  • heirsoftheking 2012/09/11 15:05:38
    NO
    heirsoftheking
    +4
    Of course not. Give a couple a week or two it'll be even. Give a debate or two, and Romney will be in the lead.
  • Tasine 2012/09/11 14:48:45
    Undecided
    Tasine
    +1
    There is one poll that matters - the one on election day. All polls are given and written for specific purposes and cannot be relied on. One may accidentally turn out right, but I don't believe that Obama is anywhere close to being re-elected.

    In the end, I don't think it matters one whit who wins the 2012 election because when the results are announced I believe there will be a LOT of violence in the streets, no matter who is announced as the winner. That violence will lead to martial law, and Obama remains in office..........for as long as he wants. Simple.
  • All American 2012/09/11 14:28:31
    NO
    All American
    +4
    It's just a convention bounce, that's all. It will tighten up in the upcoming days and weeks.
  • Kat ♪.BTO-t-BCRA-F~PWCM~ 2012/09/11 14:04:09
    NO
    Kat ♪.BTO-t-BCRA-F~PWCM~
    +5
    Polls show they are polling democrats.
  • Aqua Surf BTO-t-BCRA-F 2012/09/11 14:02:54
    NO
    Aqua Surf BTO-t-BCRA-F
    +5
    The polls show what the government wants and heaven help the ones who DARE TO BE HONEST. With Gallup being sued by the DOJ because it's poll data showed Romney in the lead is very telling. The Maobama regime wants to control EVERYTHING; what we say, do, read and think. This is Communist totalitarianism that, like Maobama says, is "In you face". Patriots need to get in his this November and say "you're fired!".
  • sodabox 2012/09/11 12:47:52 (edited)
    YES
    sodabox
    Doesn't mean Obama wont drop the ball and lose. If he got involved with a sex scandal, for example, he would lose. But if the election where held right now he would win by a landslide. A wet cat could beat Obama but Romney can't beat a wet cat. GOP did the same thing in 2008 by putting Palin on the ticket. They are handing Obama the White House again.

    obama palin
  • Fariborz-Zak 2012/09/11 06:10:29
    YES
    Fariborz-Zak
    I saw many propaganda about Obama in BBC, EURONEWS so it means 1./. has elected Hussien Obama for next 4 years
  • s2k 2012/09/11 05:23:00
    Undecided
    s2k
    +4
    It ain't over til it's over. Besides, it depends on the poll. I've seen some that put Romney in the lead. Others have it a dead heat. Only poll that matters in on Election Day.
  • RogerCoppock 2012/09/11 04:37:22
    NO
    RogerCoppock
    +1
    Obama could rape a Girl Scout in the Oval Office, this might give Romney a chance. However, Romney's team is so unskilled that they could not develop s strategy to exploit that.
  • cutter's falls 2012/09/11 03:06:02

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