Dick Morris Explains Polls Understate Romney Vote: Agree?
Fef
2012/09/24 21:00:00
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Dick Morris, a political expert and former adviser to President Bill Clinton, explains that the polls don't accurately show the vote in favor of Romney. Dick Morris claims that the pollsters inaccurately overweight Blacks, Hispanics and elderly based on 2008 turnout instead of more traditional 2004 or more recent 2010 elections. Dick Morris suggests Romney leads 52 percent to 48 percent over Obama.
And
Watch the video to learn more about those who are undecided.
DICKMORRIS.COM reports:
1. All of the polling out there uses some variant of the 2008 election turnout as its model for weighting respondents and this overstates the Democratic vote by a huge margin.
And
2. Almost all of the published polls show Obama getting less than 50% of the vote and less than 50% job approval. A majority of the voters either support Romney or are undecided in almost every poll.
Watch the video to learn more about those who are undecided.
DICKMORRIS.COM reports:
An undecided voter has really decided not to back the incumbent. He just won’t focus on the race until later in the game. So, when the published poll shows Obama ahead by, say, 48-45, he’s really probably losing by 52-48!
Read More: http://www.dickmorris.com/why-the-polls-under-stat...
Top Opinion
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Rusty Shackleford 2012/09/22 17:50:52
ROFLMAO..
It just doesn't get any better then this...
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo...
Why did Walker win in a landslide?
http://answers.yahoo.com/ques...
ROFLMAO....
Michelle Obama's lastest comment from a speech: “We cannot let anyone discourage us from casting our ballots. We cannot let anyone make us feel unwelcome in the voting booth. It is up to us to make sure that in every election, every voice is heard and every vote is counted,” Obama said in Saturday remarks."
Is she serious? I remember seeing on Fox News (I'm sure the liberal media didn't cover it) in 2008 some Black Panther members stood outside a voting poll with night sticks and shouting at the voters:
"President Obama's Justice Department continues to stonewall inquiries about why it dropped a voter intimidation case against the New Black Panther Party.
The episode—which Bartle Bull, a former civil rights lawyer and publisher of the left-wing Village Voice, calls "the most blatant form of voter intimidation I've ever seen"—began on Election Day 2008. Mr. Bull and others witnessed two Black Panthers in paramilitary garb at a polling place near downtown Philadelphia. (Some of this behavior is on YouTube.)
One of them, they say, brandished a nightstick at the entrance and pointed it at voters and both made racial threats. M...
Michelle Obama's lastest comment from a speech: “We cannot let anyone discourage us from casting our ballots. We cannot let anyone make us feel unwelcome in the voting booth. It is up to us to make sure that in every election, every voice is heard and every vote is counted,” Obama said in Saturday remarks."
Is she serious? I remember seeing on Fox News (I'm sure the liberal media didn't cover it) in 2008 some Black Panther members stood outside a voting poll with night sticks and shouting at the voters:
"President Obama's Justice Department continues to stonewall inquiries about why it dropped a voter intimidation case against the New Black Panther Party.
The episode—which Bartle Bull, a former civil rights lawyer and publisher of the left-wing Village Voice, calls "the most blatant form of voter intimidation I've ever seen"—began on Election Day 2008. Mr. Bull and others witnessed two Black Panthers in paramilitary garb at a polling place near downtown Philadelphia. (Some of this behavior is on YouTube.)
One of them, they say, brandished a nightstick at the entrance and pointed it at voters and both made racial threats. Mr. Bull says he heard one yell "You are about to be ruled by the black man, cracker!"
And guess what happened, Obama's Justice Department dropped the case. The Black Panthers have promised to be at the voting polls in full force this year.
Loads of dual registration voters. Fraud? heck yeah cause Soros owns the company that counts the votes and the electronic machines have no automatic recording of votes.
As a Philly gal, I can say with certainty that the NBPP will be out in full force in many polling places again this year, they have already declared their intent on the daily hate speech podium outside of City Hall.
Our polls had them, but the police keep them 50 feet away, and they are so stupid, they were holding up signs that said "Don't vote for Bush"
But we all carry guns here, it wouldn't be smart for them to try for intimidation, that is a threat of bodily harm and can result in lethal violence.
B.HUSSIEN OBAMA has loyalties with the muz brotherhood.
The entire race boils down to which candidate can mobilize their base on election day.
Pollsters try to figure out which people are really going to vote. But 2008 was a special case, with the first serious black candidate in US history. If pollsters apply 2008 voter demographics to 2012 polling results, it looks good for Obama. But how "special" is the first black President after a term in office? Are the 2008 voter demographics going to repeat in 2012 or will it be more like 2000 or 2004?
During the 2008 campaign, McCain had a distinct lack of support among Republicans. He was also running on the tail end of George W. Bush's 2 terms -- a strategic disadvantage for sure. But the real knock on McCain was that he ran as a moderate instead of a conservative. As a result many conservatives stayed home on election day in 2008. No matter how they respond to a poll, the only people who count are those who show up and vote.
Even though Romney is a moderate like McCain, he has the advantage of running against the weakest incumbent since Carter. If the reality of Obama's first term doesn't fire up the conservative base on election day, nothing will.
Morris is right about t...
The entire race boils down to which candidate can mobilize their base on election day.
Pollsters try to figure out which people are really going to vote. But 2008 was a special case, with the first serious black candidate in US history. If pollsters apply 2008 voter demographics to 2012 polling results, it looks good for Obama. But how "special" is the first black President after a term in office? Are the 2008 voter demographics going to repeat in 2012 or will it be more like 2000 or 2004?
During the 2008 campaign, McCain had a distinct lack of support among Republicans. He was also running on the tail end of George W. Bush's 2 terms -- a strategic disadvantage for sure. But the real knock on McCain was that he ran as a moderate instead of a conservative. As a result many conservatives stayed home on election day in 2008. No matter how they respond to a poll, the only people who count are those who show up and vote.
Even though Romney is a moderate like McCain, he has the advantage of running against the weakest incumbent since Carter. If the reality of Obama's first term doesn't fire up the conservative base on election day, nothing will.
Morris is right about the undecided voters. A re-election campaign is the incumbent's race to lose. A sitting President has many ways to win over the undecided voter -- until election day. But on that day, voters who remain undecided are really not sold on the incumbent. Most will vote for the challenger. An incumbent who relies primarily on attack ads is missing the point.
"The American Civil Liberties Union teamed up with the SEIU and a few other interested groups to sue the Michigan Secretary of State, Ruth Johnson, over her addition of a check box to ballot applications, asking voters to confirm they are U.S. citizens who legally have the right to vote. ACLU’s Michigan executive director, Kary Moss, described this as a “cynical voter suppression tactic.”
No, this is not a joke or satire. The ACLU actually thinks a check box asking voters to confirm that they’re legally entitled to vote constitutes “suppression.” The mad scramble to protect vote fraud operations had degenerated into this level of absolute lunacy. Devoid of anything approaching a logical argument, vote fraud defenders are down to describing a simple “Yes or No” question on ballot applications as a “roadblock” that will “confuse” and “intimidate” minority voters."
You see, if a voter doesn't have to check the box, then they can't be accused of voting illegally if its not there. In other words, it opens voting up the the illegal immigrants.
I do believe in the averages of all the polls, and RealClearPolitics has been VERY ACCURATE in the last two Presidential elections.
In the 2008 election, RealClearPolitics averages was only 0.3% off from the final results.
http://www.realclearpolitics....
In the 2004 election, RealClearPolitics averages was only 0.9% off from the final results.
http://www.realclearpolitics....
In the 2000 election, the averages of all the polls was only 1.1% off from the final results.
http://www.ncpp.org/?q=node/20
The poll numbers don't lie. They are there and are a matter of record for everyone to see. Political pundits on the other hand lie all the time, especially when they are trying to spin the current poll results.
Currently, RealClearPolitics averages shows President Obama leading Romney by 3.8%.
http://www.realclearpolitics....
BTW, at this time on September 25th, 2008 Barack Obama was leading John McCain by an average 3.3% according to RealClearPolitics, by 47.8% to 44.5%.
http://www.realclearpolitics....
Technically, President Obama is polling BETTER TODAY than he did at this time in 2008, and he won that election by 7.3%.
I do believe in the averages of all the polls, and RealClearPolitics has been VERY ACCURATE in the last two Presidential elections.
In the 2008 election, RealClearPolitics averages was only 0.3% off from the final results.
http://www.realclearpolitics....
In the 2004 election, RealClearPolitics averages was only 0.9% off from the final results.
http://www.realclearpolitics....
In the 2000 election, the averages of all the polls was only 1.1% off from the final results.
http://www.ncpp.org/?q=node/20
The poll numbers don't lie. They are there and are a matter of record for everyone to see. Political pundits on the other hand lie all the time, especially when they are trying to spin the current poll results.
Currently, RealClearPolitics averages shows President Obama leading Romney by 3.8%.
http://www.realclearpolitics....
BTW, at this time on September 25th, 2008 Barack Obama was leading John McCain by an average 3.3% according to RealClearPolitics, by 47.8% to 44.5%.
http://www.realclearpolitics....
Technically, President Obama is polling BETTER TODAY than he did at this time in 2008, and he won that election by 7.3%.
You mean like the liberal media?