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Dick Morris Explains Polls Understate Romney Vote: Agree?

Fef 2012/09/24 21:00:00
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Dick Morris, a political expert and former adviser to President Bill Clinton, explains that the polls don't accurately show the vote in favor of Romney. Dick Morris claims that the pollsters inaccurately overweight Blacks, Hispanics and elderly based on 2008 turnout instead of more traditional 2004 or more recent 2010 elections. Dick Morris suggests Romney leads 52 percent to 48 percent over Obama.

1. All of the polling out there uses some variant of the 2008 election turnout as its model for weighting respondents and this overstates the Democratic vote by a huge margin.
And
2. Almost all of the published polls show Obama getting less than 50% of the vote and less than 50% job approval. A majority of the voters either support Romney or are undecided in almost every poll.

Watch the video to learn more about those who are undecided.



DICKMORRIS.COM reports:
An undecided voter has really decided not to back the incumbent. He just won’t focus on the race until later in the game. So, when the published poll shows Obama ahead by, say, 48-45, he’s really probably losing by 52-48!

Read More: http://www.dickmorris.com/why-the-polls-under-stat...

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  • John Galt jr or Ron/jon 2012/10/03 22:03:11
    No
    John Galt jr or Ron/jon
    election Polls are pointless and useless, just another statistical propaganda tool for the sheeple to justlfy their opinion.
    http://webstation19.8k.com/ly...
  • kit 2012/10/01 00:03:00
    Yes
    kit
    However, what has occurred in this country in the last 20 years is the more critical. The dynamic is as follows: people on both sides of the aisle have identified themselves with one political party or another to the degree that they are not looking through the information beyond the limits of their own identity. All information is filtered to merely become part of the identity, with few people actually going beyond this. The other dynamic is the effect the initial message Mr. Obama used in 2008 to get elected. This particular type of message took full advantage of political identity processes and was so powerful that it is still having its political impact. Mr. Obama developed a message in that first election, (that even though and in spite of the fact that Mr. Bush had many, many repeated quarters of good economic growth and the fact of the impact of the housing finance bills late in Mr. Bush's presidency, which directly impacted the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac debacle, and which were authored by the democratic party, and led to the 'lost another one to Ditech' mentality--thereby setting the basis for the subprime problems), that indicated the state of the economy was Mr. Bush's fault. Many democrats and independents and even some republicans believed this--which was ridiculo...

    However, what has occurred in this country in the last 20 years is the more critical. The dynamic is as follows: people on both sides of the aisle have identified themselves with one political party or another to the degree that they are not looking through the information beyond the limits of their own identity. All information is filtered to merely become part of the identity, with few people actually going beyond this. The other dynamic is the effect the initial message Mr. Obama used in 2008 to get elected. This particular type of message took full advantage of political identity processes and was so powerful that it is still having its political impact. Mr. Obama developed a message in that first election, (that even though and in spite of the fact that Mr. Bush had many, many repeated quarters of good economic growth and the fact of the impact of the housing finance bills late in Mr. Bush's presidency, which directly impacted the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac debacle, and which were authored by the democratic party, and led to the 'lost another one to Ditech' mentality--thereby setting the basis for the subprime problems), that indicated the state of the economy was Mr. Bush's fault. Many democrats and independents and even some republicans believed this--which was ridiculous. But the powerful thing about this message in its impact on the young voter and the independent voter is that the identity of these individuals shaped itself around an assumption, which they are not willing to change. The assumption involves not a solution, 'we democrats can solve this;' but an accusation and determination, 'the republicans and their approach inevitably cause the economic ruin--their structuring of laws which impact financial institutions will consistently lead to ruin.' This is an assumption. It is inaccurate. This is an incredibly powerful message to build one's identity around politically. It disallows the evaluation of other elements and dynamics, including the impact of the larger processes and systems, which are based on international values; nor does it allow the systematic evaluation of those values to determine their fairness or what processes they give rise to in a civilization. This message continues to affect a large proportion of the vote. All that has to happen to have this election turn out badly for the republican candidates is to reactivate the key significant element in the identity for these youth voters and independents and they will vote, not so much FOR Obama, but against the republican view of economics--even against their own experience and awareness of the growth of the deficit due specifically not to decisions by Mr. Bush, but to specific decisions by Mr. Obama. They will choose the identity dynamic rather than their own knowledge of how things have not improved and even their gut telling them that things have gotten worse. That is what you are seeing in the polling data-identity processes. It is clear that these are identity issues by all the vitriole, name calling, ridiculing, denigrating that goes on on both sides. Such people cannot build a civilization
    With Best Wishes,
    Kit
    (more)
  • Ben 10- P.H.A.E.T 2012/09/30 06:19:21
    No
    Ben 10- P.H.A.E.T
    BS
  • David 2012/09/27 15:20:26
    Yes
    David
    +1
    I have thought this all along. Every time there is a serious calamity that Obama mishandles or ignores or when economic numbers show no net improvement, Obama's poll numbers inch up in certain battle ground states. It doesn't add up and people are smarter than the mainstream media gives them credit. Maybe I am being too generous here. Come election day, many folks are going to be in for a rude awakening.
  • TerryOfromCA 2012/09/27 14:07:11
    Yes
    TerryOfromCA
    +1
    Morris' explanation on The O'Reilly Factor on 9/26/12 was very good. I believe him
  • Kathi Mcdermott 2012/09/27 08:12:27
    Yes
    Kathi Mcdermott
    The latest on the actual poll being taken by Quiniapac, DEMOCRATS OUT POLLED IN THE FOLLOWING SWING STATES: PA. 11% MORE DEMS THAT REPUBS, 6%MORE DEMS THAN INDEPENDENTS IN SAME POLL. OHIO AND FLORIDA: 9% more dems than Repubs, and 5% more dems than independents. Thus appearing to give THE WORST PRESIDENT IN HISTORY THE EDGE, well don't believe it for one stinking rotten moment. Now don't tell me the MSM is up to its normal tricks of LYING. Ooopsie that was part of the meeting with the MSM and LIAR AND THIEF OBUTTMAN.
  • Claybern 2012/09/27 02:42:08
    Yes
    Claybern
    +1
    Romney in a landside.
  • Mr. T 2012/09/27 02:39:11 (edited)
    No
    Mr. T
    The analogy to the 1980 election hinges on two basic, and flawed, assumptions.



    The first is that the undecided voting block of 1980 will react the same way as the undecided voting block of 2012. For those of you who were of the voting age in 1980, do you believe that you are the same individual that you were in 1980? Or are you, on the other hand, willing to say that the general public of 1980 is comparable to the general public of today despite the vast differences in access to knowledge, technology, medicine, etc.?



    The second assumption is that the pollsters of today have not learned how to compensate for such drastic swings within the last several weeks of the election. One of the reasons that polls are deemed to be more accurate today is simply because of the fact that there are more of them. If you are unwilling to accept the methodology of a particular poll, you can look to SEVERAL others that adopt different methodologies. And if you take a further step back and choose to look at an average of all of the polls, then you can get an even more accurate picture. Perhaps the polls to which Dick Morris cites (of which he cites one per day) were inherently flawed for some particular reason. If you believe that current pollsters are unwilling to have learned from such mistakes,...



    The analogy to the 1980 election hinges on two basic, and flawed, assumptions.



    The first is that the undecided voting block of 1980 will react the same way as the undecided voting block of 2012. For those of you who were of the voting age in 1980, do you believe that you are the same individual that you were in 1980? Or are you, on the other hand, willing to say that the general public of 1980 is comparable to the general public of today despite the vast differences in access to knowledge, technology, medicine, etc.?



    The second assumption is that the pollsters of today have not learned how to compensate for such drastic swings within the last several weeks of the election. One of the reasons that polls are deemed to be more accurate today is simply because of the fact that there are more of them. If you are unwilling to accept the methodology of a particular poll, you can look to SEVERAL others that adopt different methodologies. And if you take a further step back and choose to look at an average of all of the polls, then you can get an even more accurate picture. Perhaps the polls to which Dick Morris cites (of which he cites one per day) were inherently flawed for some particular reason. If you believe that current pollsters are unwilling to have learned from such mistakes, then you are just too biased to be reasonable.



    So no, Dick Morris, you have a convincing argument for why the polls should be accepted with a grain of salt. However, you're argument is flawed and your prediction is ultimately very unlikely to come true.
    (more)
  • Dandydon 2012/09/27 00:16:58
    Yes
    Dandydon
    +1
    What else do you expect from Lame Stream Media?

    They rigged the polls in favor of Obama,then when Obama is beaten in a landslide,they'll be crying "voter fraud!"...Even though they're against using I.D's for voting...
  • gocar 2012/09/26 23:42:01
    No
    gocar
    Dick Morris is paid by the RNC to help get Republicans elected. He naturally wants them to do well. He was once paid by the Clinton campaign. He has to sound positive because it is his livelihood. The only thing that is going to help Romney is the suppression of of the vote for thousands who will find out on election day that they were taken off the rolls. Which the Dems are scrambling to rectify. There are massive voter registration drives and I get a email everyday asking if I am registered, am I sure, do I need help, etc. The GOP is counting on the masses being asses.
  • RhinoRT 2012/09/26 23:15:38
    Yes
    RhinoRT
    +1
    I for one put no faith in polls, especially polls that are obviously rigged.
    Polls had Carter ahead of Reagan, polls had Kerry ahead of Bush all the way up to and including election day. polls did not reflect the bashing liberals got in 2010.
    Election day will (when Romney wins) will put to rest all the skewed polling to rest.
  • Aqua Surf BTO-t-BCRA-F 2012/09/26 22:37:46
    Yes
    Aqua Surf BTO-t-BCRA-F
    Lol, they are mostly leftist so what else can expect? Save it, it won't work. Patriots will be at the polls in record numbers to defeat Maobama and defeat him we will.
  • Stacy F 2012/09/26 22:36:29
    Yes
    Stacy F
    Considering that Dick Morris has been tracking politics for YEARS, and makes a living at it, it would be unwise to cast aside his knowledge of the topic.
  • charles nelson 2012/09/26 21:14:06
  • Todd Parsons 2012/09/26 20:34:26
    Yes
    Todd Parsons
    +2
    Absolutely, History is repeating itself... this is very similar to the Carter/Reagan election.
  • gmiing 2012/09/26 20:06:26
    Yes
    gmiing
    +1
    I think people forget - Obama had a chance - and a lot his previous supporters were disappointed with his performance. He had a chance - let's give someone else a chance.
  • Lanikai gmiing 2012/09/26 21:31:26
    Lanikai
    Exactly, 6 trillion and still no jobs, high debt, more on the public dole and no hope for change.

    Let another try things out, couldn't be worse, and might actually be better.
  • YouSirName 2012/09/26 19:20:08
    No
    YouSirName
    Why do I keep thinking about Baghdad Bob whenever Morris opens his mouth?

    Morris is a shill for Faux News, paid to spout the Party Line. By the way, when he first made this statement he was arguing why the latest Faux News poll itself showed Obama leading. What irony!
  • charles... YouSirName 2012/09/26 21:16:43
    charles nelson
    thats what I said
  • Thomas ... YouSirName 2012/09/27 22:42:38
    Thomas G Towns
    You are brainwashed get help. hopo
  • Pamela 2012/09/26 18:55:23 (edited)
    Yes
    Pamela
    +3
    Yes Dick Morris is correct in his advise about the polls. Most of the polls are coming out of the left looney liberal media who are stuck in Obama's butt. media stuck in obamas butt liberal medialoves obama
  • Lanikai Pamela 2012/09/26 21:32:20
    Lanikai
    ANd remember that Holder and Axlerod threatened to sue Gallup for obamas low poll numbers. So, no telling hos skewed the polls are to prevent a lawsuit.
  • Bella Lanikai 2012/09/27 06:12:52
    Bella
    +1
    True story.......sad isn't it.
  • Lanikai Bella 2012/09/27 15:24:32
    Lanikai
    +1
    Sad and embarrassing that the media is not calling out his bullcrap, imagine the screaming if it was a repub doing this.
  • Bella Lanikai 2012/09/28 03:21:37
    Bella
    You are so true.....but actually we are seeing the screaming from the liberal media and Romney isn't even president yet. Guess we are seeing a preview of what it will be like if he wins. Just like when Bush was president. Good thing he has thick skin unlike Obama who is the biggest baby. I mean have you ever seen a president put blame on everyone and everything including the weather and the ATM machines, not to mention the last president who has been out for four years and get away with it! Disgusting.
  • Lanikai Bella 2012/09/28 14:39:36
    Lanikai
    I have never seen, in my life, a spoiled, self absorbed, ignorant, pouting three year old MAN as president.

    You are correct, he is a narcissist who cannot stand criticism and MUST blame everyone else for his failings.

    I HOPE someone in the press grows a set and starts getting the truth out. But I am not holding my breath.

    Bob Woodward is trying, but since he wrote a book not necessarily favorable to obama, his promotional tour has been largely cancelled. Seems the press (except Fox) is not interested in a book that shows what a pouting, crybaby loser this man is.
  • tdterry1999 2012/09/26 17:55:08
    Yes
    tdterry1999
    +3
    Media Put 18,000 in Not-Quite-Full 5,000-Seat Arena for Obama in Wisconsin Where are they
  • ivegotloveinmypants 2012/09/26 17:52:25
    Yes
    ivegotloveinmypants
    Again, there should be an option for I don't know, or I need more proof. He is a Republican and may be just using this to cheer Romney supporters, and Romney and co themselves. On the other hand, the thing about minority demographics may be true.
  • Concerned Citizen 2012/09/26 17:18:15
    Yes
    Concerned Citizen
    +2
    The same skewed polls had Kerry winning on election day,......NOT!
  • JP 2012/09/26 17:06:27
    Yes
    JP
    +4
    Morris remembers 2010 and the Scott Walker landslide victory!
  • Ukie 2012/09/26 16:57:18
    Yes
    Ukie
    +5
    I don't know for sure that he is right, but I "PRAY" that he is!! nobama 2012 nobama 2012
  • BigFig#9 2012/09/26 15:56:53
    No
    BigFig#9
    +1
    Wow - fact that approximately 75% of people buy this BS explains why being a con man is such a lucrative business. Understand WHY he's saying this but 'blaming' the polls is a last desperate act and doesn't do much to win those persuadable voters back but perhaps helps to hearten the disheartened (particularly those who might have nice check book balances available.)
  • Michaelene 2012/09/26 15:41:49
    Yes
    Michaelene
    +4
    I am glad that they do. It seems that the more they declare Obama to be winning the more people realize how important their single vote will be in this election.
    Do not become complacent by this, we must remove the progressive scourge from our nations leadership. Obama must go!
  • mrk5panzer 2012/09/26 15:24:04
    Yes
    mrk5panzer
    +6
    Ya know that Mitt has it in the bag just because the Loony left press are tap dancing all the numbers to lean into Obamas favor. Their losing and its every rat for themselfs now.
  • Ken 2012/09/26 15:09:07
    Yes
    Ken
    +7
    Yes. For the most part they are modeling their polls on the voting turnout in the 2008 election when the Dims were far more enthusiastic than Republicans. Today the opposite is true.
  • Greg 2012/09/26 14:54:03
    Yes
    Greg
    +7
    Even though Obama is doing pretty well in the popular vote/polls, Romney is polling very well with the Electoral college vote...Winner of election Mitt Romney!!!
  • mikeyavelli 2012/09/26 14:46:47
    No
    mikeyavelli
    +1
    i'm afraid that the left will win again, and then this country will be lost. we will join the euro-union as planned by obama. on the way to global communism, his dream.
  • seadog6... mikeyav... 2012/09/26 15:28:24
  • Todd Pa... mikeyav... 2012/09/26 20:37:18
    Todd Parsons
    That would certainly suck. I found out Canada doesn't take American refugees either. Due to the Safe Third Country act with the US.... they must have saw this coming.
  • Lanikai Todd Pa... 2012/09/26 21:34:26
    Lanikai
    That and the department of Treasury has a plan by which you cannot take your money out with you. Nice huh.
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