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Computer Model Shows Perfect Storm: Is Obama Battling Romney or Economy?

Fef 2012/07/02 22:00:00
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Every four years we hear the same refrain: "It's the economy, stupid!" James Carville coined the phrase when he served as a campaign strategist for Bill Clinton's successful 1992 presidential campaign against sitting president George H. W. Bush. Carville knew that Clinton could win if he focused on the bad economy instead of the candidate, George H.W. Bush.

President Obama won the 2008 presidential election against Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) on several issues including the bad economy. Four years later, Obama faces a perfect storm of a stuttering economy: high gas prices, a volatile stock market, increased unemployment, and a crisis in the Eurozone.

George Washington University associate professor John Sides created a computer model that determined President Obama has two opponents in his 2012 re-election battle: Mitt Romney and the horrible economy. "It's not the only factor, but it's arguably the most important factor," said Professor Sides.

CNN reports:President Barack Obama is running against former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, but the economy may truly be his greatest opponent.

president barack obama running massachusetts gov mitt romney economy opponent

Read More: http://www.cnn.com/2012/06/11/politics/obama-econo...

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Top Opinion

  • RastaFan 2012/07/02 10:37:43
    The Economy
    RastaFan
    +12
    I can't believe 47% of our citizens think he's doing a great job. Where are these people?

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  • SusanBaumgaertnerFentz 2012/08/02 19:20:27
    Mitt Romney
    SusanBaumgaertnerFentz
    He should be battling the economy and governing. Since he was elected, he's done nothing but write executive orders, used the EPA to bypass Congress, he campaigned, vacationed and golfed.
  • ReconMarine~PWCM*AVA*BTTB*JLA* 2012/07/20 02:24:09 (edited)
    Mitt Romney
    ReconMarine~PWCM*AVA*BTTB*JLA*
    +1
    He is Battling Romney on Items Americans Do Not Care about, according to the Polls...
    They Want to Know About Economy and Jobs, more than anything else, but since ODUMBO has such a Poor Record, he has to divert that attention away....

    Obama's Record.......3-1/2 Years to Do This and Failed...

    Campaign for President during 2007-2008, Obama Kept Promising The American Public 8-Facts he would do immediately upon entering the Oval Office....
    Acceptance Speech in Jan 2009, promised those same 8-Facts to be fixed immediately....
    Fact 1.....Cut the National Debt by Half in his First Term
    Fact 2.....Reduce unemployment below 8%
    Fact 3.....Bring Manufacturing Back to the US
    Fact 4.....Fix the Economy
    Fact 5.....Transparent Government
    Fact 6.....Promised 10 Day Look On GOV WebSite For Public Review on ALL Bills
    Fact 7.....Close Gitmo Immediately

    Speech in Feb 2009.....
    Fact 8.....Fix The Economy in first 3-1/2 years or He Does Not Deserve to Be re-elected to another Term....HIS Own Words...He Does Not Deserve Aother Term As He Failed On This Fact

    Speech Feb 24, 2009....

    Fact 9.....Told American Public, ObamaCare Was Not A Tax....That No One Making Under $250,000, Would Pay Any Increase...Not One Dime...This Is Not A Tax....
  • Digman14 2012/07/11 15:35:25
    The Economy
    Digman14
    Mitt Romney cannot defeat Obama. It's simply impossible he's too similar in many areas, too liberal to much of his base, less likeable, etc. However, the economy can. President Obama does occasionally have to swat the Romney campaign away, but the monster that is the depression (yes it is a depression, recession is a verb) is his real enemy. If he can deal enough damage to get unemployment below 8%, he'll be impossible to defeat.
  • ART 2012/07/05 17:30:57
    Mitt Romney
    ART
    +1
    HE CERTAINLY IS NOT FIGHTING THE PROBLEMS IN THE ECONOMY, HE CAUSED MOST OF IT.HE IS TRYING TO DESTROY IT. HE DISLIKES CAPITALISM SO MUCH, AND LOVES MARXISM SO MUCH I COULD PUKE. LIKE ALL DEMOCRAPS, AS SOON AS THEY WIN AN ELECTION, THEY START CAMPAIGNING FOR THE NEXT.
  • Tuna 2012/07/05 17:20:51 (edited)
    The Economy
    Tuna
    +1
    THIS IS EXACTLY HOW SOCIALIST EURO got into their mess; LIBERAL PROGRESSIVE government comes in, gives people this and that, promises people all kinds of HOPE AND CHANGE, then snatch it ALL out from under them, EXACTLY !!!
    progressive liars take off the blinders
  • Mr. Smith 2012/07/05 16:43:52
    The Economy
    Mr. Smith
    If the conditions are favorable, then the incumbent has the luxury to run on a favorable track record. In Obama's case, the conditions are not favorable which is why his team tries to take the focus off his failed policies and put them on Romney. The only way Obama wins this election is if he and the criminal press can convince enough idiots that he will be an effective leader in his 2nd term, obviously he lacked that quality in his 1st.
  • mich52 2012/07/05 15:43:28
  • Aurora mich52 2012/07/05 15:48:51
    Aurora
    +1
    the gop has passed many bills, and ummm let's see the democratic owned senate shelves them, and you had 2 years of total control over the government, but you seem to forget that one. Stupid argument is it is all the GOP faults, no wonder you people are stuck on stupid. You are a useful idiot to the democratic party just like they want.
  • mich52 Aurora 2012/07/05 17:16:19
  • Aurora mich52 2012/07/05 17:25:40
    Aurora
    +1
    Sure us be polite says the left wing nut job, hypocrisy no one wants to hear your blather, run along useless idiot for the left.
  • mich52 Aurora 2012/07/05 18:42:59
  • mind-pilot 2012/07/05 15:23:19
    The Economy
    mind-pilot
    +1
    From an unbias observation (because I hate saying this) it is more the blockage of policies and do nothing legislation of the House that is continually stopping a national jobs program. I'm not rich. And the rich are now eating the rich because they are intent on destroying the middle class, so I don't canre about the rich they should pay more in taxes. And ever since Bush gave the rich the tax breaks in 2002 we've had no job growth as per the GAO( that's 10 years of tax breaks and no new jobs) . So, rich people are just trying to buy out America and her politicians. That's where the problem is with Bohner/Cantor/McConnel/Mccain and Pelosi/ they are bought off by the Citizens United-type corporate ownership. The pipeline down the middle of America is already being reported as a disaster to the enviorment, much less a one-side policy that does not fiscally help the United States. Not in jobs (maybe 2,000) nor in tax revenues or benefits.
    These corporate puppets have "vowed" to stop Obama from succeeding at the cost of the United States economy. That's wrong.
  • realist 2012/07/05 14:33:51
    Mitt Romney
    realist
    +1
    I've watched America turn into more of a freakshow in the last 4 years then ever before (in my lifetime at least).

    To fix a country sometimes you must revisit the principles that made it run in the first place. Conservatives might get their shot again yet when the Liberalists finally realize everything they are fighting for relates to love and emotions rather then money and food on the table.
  • Nick 2012/07/05 12:59:36
    The Economy
    Nick
    For all presidents it's the situation not the opponent.
  • Grandpa 2012/07/05 12:45:38
    The Economy
    Grandpa
    Neither >> You forgot his own stupidity >>>. Vote wise in 2012
  • daylight 2012/07/05 09:21:59 (edited)
    The Economy
    daylight
    BO wants a fall out, top down, bottom up. Most people don't understand what the man is doing. He wants to control. Hes by passed congress, which should have been stopped, but no body stopped him. But BO will be stopped, because everything is always changing, nothing stays the same in this world.
  • PM daylight 2012/07/05 15:26:17
    PM
    +1
    Obama wants Martial Law??? LOL!!! Where do they get you people from? Can you give me at least one example of why he wants martial law? Unless the Tea party plans on rioting and engaging in civil disobedience, no need for martial law.

    Martial law - is the imposition of military rule by military authorities over designated regions on an emergency basis—(usually) only temporary—when the civilian government or civilian authorities fail to function effectively (e.g., maintain order and security, and provide essential services), when there are extensive riots and protests, or when the disobedience of the law becomes widespread.
  • daylight PM 2012/07/05 18:23:49
    daylight
    Oh it won't be the tea party, it will be union thugs along with mexicans & blacks & that group that has caused so much trouble in NY and other places. Its already happening, it will just get worse, job loss etc..................... The USA is broke
  • PM daylight 2012/07/09 13:22:58 (edited)
    PM
    LOL... Man, where do they get you people from. The Mexicans and Blacks and (I assume you're talking about Muslims) are going to riot soon. Well, maybe you've got a point, because unemployment is higher in minority communities than anywhere else, and its been that way for a long time (since way before Obama took office).

    Our slide into serious debt began under Reagan, continued under Bush I, then declined during the Clinton years, and took back off during Bush II and has continued under Obama.

    You say, "its already happening." What is already happening? Riots? Where? Give me some examples. And again, Martial Law is milatary rule by military authorities. Why would Obama want the Military to take power from him?
  • daylight PM 2012/07/28 11:10:27
    daylight
    LOL its happening, and its going to get worse...........2016 Obama's America

    We are pullling out. We are so done
  • PM daylight 2012/07/30 17:23:01
    PM
    Ummm... Obama will not be eligible to run in 2016 if he wins the 2012 election. You do know, of course, that each President is limited to 2 terms, don't you?
  • Boon 2012/07/05 05:23:08
    The Economy
    Boon
    I did not uderstand that question. I think Obama struggling against American economy. And his won peoples lose. America will lose if he wins
  • meme14 2012/07/05 05:05:09
    The Economy
    meme14
  • PM meme14 2012/07/09 13:25:57
    PM
    +1
    LOL!!! That's too funny (the corn on the cob). I'm still cracking up.
  • meme14 PM 2012/07/09 22:09:07
    meme14
    I thought that was hilarious too! because it's so true! lol
  • evangelism_vision 2012/07/05 04:01:57
    The Economy
    evangelism_vision
  • Lord Emperor of Dune 2012/07/05 02:38:40
    The Economy
    Lord Emperor of Dune
    +2
    This idiot isn't just battling Romney or the economy. He's battling the consequences of all of his poor policies, executive orders, apologies, and everything else he's done to bring shame on those of us who are still proud to be American. Hopefully he gets everything he deserves...
  • marcuss LIBERALS ARE IDIOTS 2012/07/05 02:08:00 (edited)
    The Economy
    marcuss LIBERALS ARE IDIOTS
    +1
    As those who can think for themselves know the 0WEbama economy has made just about everything worse for the working American. Those on the free ride have no concern about the economy.
  • Edwin 2012/07/05 02:03:44
    The Economy
    Edwin
    Computer models have shown Obama will likely win, but only barely. And the word likely is important.

    But... the reason there is any real contest is the economy. Presidents usually get a second term unless there is a really strong reason not to re-elect them.

    Bush Jr. was despised by a huge percentage of the population, but he won his second term. Why? Because being despised is NOT enough reason for Americans to kick a president out... and Kerry was not exciting.

    Likewise, Romney does not excite many people. So... without the economic issues, Obama would have an easy win. With the economy bad, it is going to be close. Add to that Romney's money, and it might flip the other way. Add some global crises to the mix and who knows what will happen?
  • Devil's Advocate 2012/07/05 01:44:17
    The Economy
    Devil's Advocate
    If the numbers improve before November, Obama will win.
    However, looking at the Eurozone and Chinese productivity gains and export levels, it is going to be touch and go. A fact confirmed earlier today by the IMF (not that I regard Christine Laguarde or the IMF as wholly reliable prognosticators)
  • tlee 2012/07/05 00:38:15
    The Economy
    tlee
    Why battle romney when they are not distinguishable?.
  • angela 2012/07/04 22:32:19
    The Economy
    angela
    +2
    Obama IS MAKING SOMETHING INTO NOTHING ...HE WAS GIVEN PIXIE DUST AND HE IS WORKING MIRACLES....
  • Christopher Kirchen 2012/07/04 21:25:03
    The Economy
    Christopher Kirchen
    Romney has negligible power yet, as merely the governor of a state, and a candidate. There is nothing that he can yet do against Obama, at least directly.
  • chas 2012/07/04 20:52:32
    Mitt Romney
    chas
    +1
    Its the Celebrity vs. the Candidate. Celebrity Obama
  • angela chas 2012/07/04 22:34:34
    angela
    +3
    LYING ROMNEY jUST AS WE ARE WALKING FORWARD SOME IDIOTS WANT US TO DRINK THE kOOLAID AGAIN
  • chas angela 2012/07/05 18:20:32 (edited)
  • Sherloc... chas 2012/07/05 00:09:01
  • Sherloc... chas 2012/07/05 00:09:54
  • burningsnowman 2012/07/04 19:20:05
    The Economy
    burningsnowman
    +1
    The stock market is very low volume and adjusted for inflation it's actually LOST money the last 13 years. That's with trillions in bailouts for the ultra rich. Unemployment never improved, it's higher than when Obama got in. And even then the figure is significantly LOWER than reality because a lot of people the government just stopped counting as unemployed after awhile ("discouraged workers") or never counted in the first place (the self-employed). Between 2007 and 2010 americans on average lost 40% of their wealth. If the economy was out of recession by 2009 how come people were still getting poorer? How come food stamps have continued to go way, way up after the "economy recovered"? Because it never actually did, all that happened was the rich got richer. Obama is a fraud.
  • Frank 2012/07/04 18:07:52
    Mitt Romney
    Frank
    He's always campaigning......

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