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Close encounters of the asteroid kind on Tuesday. Asteroid 2005 YU 55 a near earth miss. When will a large asteroid or comet hit the earth?

Jimbo 2011/11/06 12:08:36
A huge asteroid 400 meters in diameter will come closer to the earth than the moon on Tuesday. High resolution radar surface composite within 4 meters showing surface features are expected to be taken by Arecibo radar. High resolution photos with 7.5 meters too. The next close encounter they know of is in 2028.

The earth has been hit in the past. The Levi comet hit Jupiter recently with spectacular photos. We will be hit again someday. When?

2028 earth hit levi comet hit jupiter spectacular photos hit

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news171.html

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/04/us-space-asteroid-i...
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  • c.stuartHardwick 2011/11/06 18:36:17
    c.stuartHardwick
    Whenever the doomsday cults least expect it.
  • Steve 2011/11/06 14:10:13
    Steve
    Great graphic!! Thanks.

    NASA actually has an effective program to identify and track asteroids that have the potential to hit the earth. I'm not too worried.

    But there will always be a chance that some odd-ball rock in some odd orbit "comes out of nowhere" and visually stays near the sun as it approaches so we might never see it until there's only maybe a couple of days notice.

    Personally, each of us is at far greater risk of dying of some freak stroke or accident, but the scenario makes for good fiction, and possibly makes for some justification for some doomsday bunkers to be provisioned by the government.
  • Jimbo Steve 2011/11/06 14:45:16
    Jimbo
    Radio/electromagnetic refraction in Hubble, radar in Arecibo make it a slim non detection chance even by the sun. High speed comets from super novas exploding are the more probable undetected till too late event.
  • c.stuar... Jimbo 2011/11/07 01:29:52 (edited)
    c.stuartHardwick
    Also to clarify, and pardon me if this was just and editing error on your part, there is ZERO risk of "high speed comets from super novas exploding". There is, however, a risk from gamma rays if a nova has occurred nearby. I say "has" because if it happened a century ago and we are about to see its light, we would be SOL. A nova could sterilize the surfaces of every planet within a few hundred light years, and with our current technology, it is most unlikely that we would survive even if we had decades of warning (somehow) and set out to reestablish the entire biosphere.
  • c.stuar... Steve 2011/11/06 18:37:31
    c.stuartHardwick
    I would dispute that. Quite a number of large NEAs have been spotted in recent years AFTER they passed the earth.

    P.S. Why to we say "the earth". We don't say "the Mars".
  • Jimbo c.stuar... 2011/11/06 20:09:22 (edited)
    Jimbo
    Same reason why in NY we say the Bronx, not the other boroughs in NYC, it is idiomatic. Could you elaborate on NEAs in recent years. Don't know of any since spacewatch was started in 2005.
  • c.stuar... Jimbo 2011/11/07 01:25:46
    c.stuartHardwick
    Spacewatch is not a comprehensive program to prevent impacts. It is a scientific program run by the University of Arizona and funded by NASA under a congressional directive to detect near earth objects of more than ten kilometers in size---objects large enough to cause a sudden mass extinction event. They estimated in 2006 that they had cataloged 80% of such objects, but since they are the ones collecting the data needed to make such determinations, one must take this with a certain grain of salt.

    Spacewatch is an important step, but we have more than this to be leery of however. In 2002, a ten meter object entered over the Mediterranean sea releasing three times the energy of the Hiroshima bomb. Events like this are believed to occur every 13 years on average, and only the fact that most explode high in the atmosphere prevents their being a major impediment to civilization.

    In 2008, a slightly smaller asteroid stuck northern Sudan only hours after it was spotted. A slightly larger asteroid exploded over Indonesia in October of 2009, and was not detected prior.

    In 2004, asteroid 2004FH passed by the earth only hours after discovery, and would have released energy equivalent to a small hydrogen bomb. A similar asteroid (2009DD45) passed by twice geostationary orbit three days aft...

    Spacewatch is not a comprehensive program to prevent impacts. It is a scientific program run by the University of Arizona and funded by NASA under a congressional directive to detect near earth objects of more than ten kilometers in size---objects large enough to cause a sudden mass extinction event. They estimated in 2006 that they had cataloged 80% of such objects, but since they are the ones collecting the data needed to make such determinations, one must take this with a certain grain of salt.

    Spacewatch is an important step, but we have more than this to be leery of however. In 2002, a ten meter object entered over the Mediterranean sea releasing three times the energy of the Hiroshima bomb. Events like this are believed to occur every 13 years on average, and only the fact that most explode high in the atmosphere prevents their being a major impediment to civilization.

    In 2008, a slightly smaller asteroid stuck northern Sudan only hours after it was spotted. A slightly larger asteroid exploded over Indonesia in October of 2009, and was not detected prior.

    In 2004, asteroid 2004FH passed by the earth only hours after discovery, and would have released energy equivalent to a small hydrogen bomb. A similar asteroid (2009DD45) passed by twice geostationary orbit three days after discovery. The 15 meter 2010 AL30 passed by half the distance to the moon three days after discovery in January of 2010.

    Now for clarity, let me emphasize that none of these encounters was at all dangerous. But it illustrates that there is a huge gulf between the ten kilometer objects congress has asked NASA to detect and they flurry of smaller, but potentially destructive objects that are out there. 1 a kilometer object could produce an airburst large enough to destroy a city if it occured near the ground, and it is very unlikely that we would detect it more than a week out. We can, and must, do better.
    (more)
  • Jimbo 2011/11/06 12:21:25
    Jimbo
    With spacewatch, Arecibo, the Hubble Telescope, it shows we have little chance of being hit soon. It will happen but chances are we will know about long before it does. Possibly in the far future we will have a deflection capability to avoid a major catastrophe. Photos of the Tunguska event in Russia which had the power of 1000 Hiroshima A-bombs.

    major catastrophe photos tunguska event russia power 1000 hiroshima a-bombs

    major catastrophe photos tunguska event russia power 1000 hiroshima a-bombs

    major catastrophe photos tunguska event russia power 1000 hiroshima a-bombs

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