CA-Gov: Bad day for Meg Whitman
CA-Gov: Bad day for Meg Whitman
by Dante Atkins
Fri Sep 24, 2010 at 06:30:05 PM PDT
Meg Whitman didn't have the happiest Tuesday ever in her quest to buy the Governorship of California. First and foremost, it doesn't seem like $120 million buys what it used to these days. PPP released it'\s poll in the race, which finds Brown with a 47-42 lead:
Brown's lead isn't much a function of his own popularity- a plurality of voters in the state view him in a negative light with 42% seeing him favorably and 45% unfavorably. Republicans (86%) are much more strong in their dislike of Brown than Democrats (69%) are in their favor and independents split against him by a 30/55 margin as well.
Whitman, however, is even more unpopular. Only 35% of voters view her in a positive light with 49% seeing her negatively. That's a slight improvement from a 30/50 spread when PPP last polled the race in July but shows Californians still haven't grown particularly found of her.
Over at Calitics, Robert Cruickshank has an excellent analysis: of the deeper results and crosstabs:
More importantly, they also found that there is no enthusiasm gap here in California: that Democrats are likely to vote in significant numbers, boosting Brown:
...there is no depressed turnout among Democrats as there is in many other states. Brown now tops Whitman among likely voters, 47-42, after being up 46-40 among registered voters two months ago.
Also like the Boxer-Fiorina matchup, independents have switched their allegiances, from a 47-31 Brown lead last time to a 45-37 Whitman edge now. But independents account for only 18% of the voters. Dampening that development is a decrease in support from Democrats, who make up 49% of the electorate; she had 17% of them last time, but only 12% now.
The crosstabs show that Brown is doing particularly well among younger voters, where he leads by nearly 25 points (50-26). Brown has a similar lead among Latinos, a huge lead among African Americans, and a 4 point lead (48-44) among Asian Americans. Among whites, Whitman narrowly leads 50-42.
Overall this suggests a couple of things. First, that PPP is right that there is an Arnold Schwarzenegger effect on this election, and it's working against Whitman. Californians have very low approval of Arnold, and that makes them suspicious of another prominent, well-funded Republican candidate for governor.
Second, it shows that Whitman's massive ad blitz has if anything solidified the Democratic base against her, in support of Jerry Brown. Whitman's ads not only increase her unfavorables, but they show her strength as a candidate, causing Democrats to rally to defend their state and their values against her efforts to buy the election and destroy California.
Meanwhile, eBay founder Pierre Omidyar told the Sacramento Bee that he would find it very hard to vote for Meg Whitman:
Omidyar praised Whitman for her business acumen, calling her a "fantastic executive" and saying that "on that basis, I think she would do a great job as governor," according to the transcript.
However, he said he was disappointed by Whitman's support for California's same-sex marriage ban and by her "alignment with former Gov. Pete Wilson on immigration issues."
Omidyar said he "can't quite support her" because of those issues.
Asked if he would vote for Whitman if he lived in California Omidyar told InBusiness, "On the basis of, I think her misread of Proposition 8 and the Constitutional issues related to that as well as the human rights issues related to that, and on the basis of the immigration issues, I would find it very difficult to vote for her."
Not Meg's best day.
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