I certainly hope these predictions we hear are correct. If they are then I can continue to believe that the American voter has continued to get it right in the end.
No I didn't vote for the President but when he was elected, I assumed that perhaps I was wrong and he would at the very least be competent. As any realist can see that was a mistaken belief.
As the poles continue to show the President in the lead, I was very depressed because it would mean that we were in true trouble and the American voter had lost his way.
If this turns out to be a correct prediction, it will prove one thing conclusively, That the MSM truely have done their best to get him re-elected but the American voter has once again made the correct choice. It would lay bare their bias for all to see.
Another Presidential Election Prediction: University of Colorado prediction model points to a big Romney win!
Steverno~POTL~PWCM~JLA
2012/09/22 16:29:58
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138 votes
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58 votes
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15 votes
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7% | ||
A presidential election prediction model developed by two University
of Colorado professors points to a big win for GOP presidential contender Mitt Romney in November.
The model , the only of its kind to use more than one state-level economic indicator, has correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1980.
It predicts Romney winning the electoral college by a 320-218 margin and winning 52.9 percent of the popular vote when only the two major parties’ candidates are considered, the Associated Press reported
Thursday.
Romney, it concluded, will win every state currently considered by pollsters to be a swing state, including Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire and North Carolina.
The model even predicts Romney will win Minnesota and Maine’s Second Congressional District, the electoral votes of which most pollsters consider to be “safe” for President Obama. Nevada and Iowa are the only swing states it assigns to Obama.
“Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble,” explained Kenneth Bickers, a political science professor at the University of Colorado-Boulder who developed the prediction model with Michael Berry of University of Colorado-Denver.
“The apparent advantage of being a Democratic candidate and holding the White House disappears,” Berry noted, ”when the national unemployment rate
hits 5.6 percent. The incumbency advantage enjoyed by President Obama, though statistically significant, is not great enough to offset high rates of unemployment currently experienced in many of the states.”
Bickers said large issues like the economy and the country’s overall direction tend to determine presidential elections. Computerized prediction models “suggest that presidential elections are about big things and the stewardship of the national economy,” he said. “It’s not about gaffes, political commercials or day-to-day campaign tactics. I find that heartening for our democracy.”
Bickers and Berry cautioned, however, that their model used economic data
from June, 2012. They intend to update their calculations when new data become available in September.
And many swing states showed close enough to a 50-50 split that factors other than the economy could tilt them in the opposite direction. Bicker and Berry also did not factor in third party candidates, such as Libertarian presidential nominee Gary Johnson, who Public Policy Polling, a Democratic-affiliated polling firm, has noted could significantly diminish Obama’s chances of winning New Mexico.
Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2012/08/23/university-of-colorado-prediction-model-points-to-big-romney-win/#ixzz27DSUI4je
Top Opinion
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MichaelJ 2012/09/22 16:43:46
And even if it did, the ship of state would still rocket iceberg-ward at the same speed!
Just ignore the MSM & Obama Campaign propaganda.Which is designed to dispirit Romney voters from turning out for the election!
1) Romney is suffering in the polls, particularly in vital swing states (in all bet NH, he is down by up to 8 points).
2) There is no real way for a Romney win to be "big", rather, if he wins, it will likely come down to a single swing state (probably PA of FL).
3) The Romney gaffe-fest week of mid-September has virtually destroyed his chances at getting elected as president--ever.
Regardless of your political opinions, the prediction that Obama will win is very sound and it appears that nothing is going to change any time soon. At this point, the only real chance that Romney has is if there is a total blowup at the debates and he gains a massive swell of support at the last minute (given Romney's and Obama's history in speaking engagements, this is very unlikely).
I've made the prediction two months ago that the President would struggle to get 230 electoral votes. If anything, I may need to lower that! Since you seem interested in polls, do you understand the methods of polling? Im serious when I say that, for I think you, just coming out of being college age, may understand more than any of us just how much Obama was a "fad" four years ago than anything else, yes? How many of your friends actively discuss politics the way they did back then? Of course, they did not talk "politics" back then either.... just "Hope & Change," yes? :)
Keep this in mind..... Back in 1980, then President Jimmy Carter had a 9% lead on Gov Ronald Reagan just two weeks before the election.... Yet, he lost by 8%!
IF you will notice, every single little issue that happens, whether it be attacks in the Middle East to Romney declaring 47% of people will vote for Obama will have a "momentary" affect on how people "FEEL" one day to the next! However, just like back in 1980, people are going to be entering a voting both less that six weeks from now and they will a...
I've made the prediction two months ago that the President would struggle to get 230 electoral votes. If anything, I may need to lower that! Since you seem interested in polls, do you understand the methods of polling? Im serious when I say that, for I think you, just coming out of being college age, may understand more than any of us just how much Obama was a "fad" four years ago than anything else, yes? How many of your friends actively discuss politics the way they did back then? Of course, they did not talk "politics" back then either.... just "Hope & Change," yes? :)
Keep this in mind..... Back in 1980, then President Jimmy Carter had a 9% lead on Gov Ronald Reagan just two weeks before the election.... Yet, he lost by 8%!
IF you will notice, every single little issue that happens, whether it be attacks in the Middle East to Romney declaring 47% of people will vote for Obama will have a "momentary" affect on how people "FEEL" one day to the next! However, just like back in 1980, people are going to be entering a voting both less that six weeks from now and they will ask themselves two questions:
1) Am I happy with the direction the country is going right now?
2) Who do I think will do a better job getting our economy going again... or "It's the Economy Stupid!"
Those two questions will be answered with a resounding Mitt Romney being elected by a landslide! :)
As to my understanding of polling and political trends: I have a degree in political science/earth science and am a professional political writer (Ex. link to my commentary on the history of money in politics: http://www.wolf-pac.com/knox_... thus I have a very good understanding of polls and studies (I have also designed/administered them).
Polls are inherently unpredictable and can give the wrong impressions, but they are indicative of trends and general impressions of the race. By looking at polls taken over time, we see a trajectory of public opinion that allows us to get a relative view of public opinion. Romney is currently behind in every swing state poll as well as nationally and it appears that this is simply part of a longer trend; the Romney campaign is currently in a state of implosion and it is likely that money will begin to move away from him and towards Republican legislative races.
By most normal standards, your 2 questions prediction would be largely accurate, but this is not a usual race: Romney is intensely disliked, even by his own party. The economy is floundering, but it has drastically improved under Obama's presidency (from the fr...
As to my understanding of polling and political trends: I have a degree in political science/earth science and am a professional political writer (Ex. link to my commentary on the history of money in politics: http://www.wolf-pac.com/knox_... thus I have a very good understanding of polls and studies (I have also designed/administered them).
Polls are inherently unpredictable and can give the wrong impressions, but they are indicative of trends and general impressions of the race. By looking at polls taken over time, we see a trajectory of public opinion that allows us to get a relative view of public opinion. Romney is currently behind in every swing state poll as well as nationally and it appears that this is simply part of a longer trend; the Romney campaign is currently in a state of implosion and it is likely that money will begin to move away from him and towards Republican legislative races.
By most normal standards, your 2 questions prediction would be largely accurate, but this is not a usual race: Romney is intensely disliked, even by his own party. The economy is floundering, but it has drastically improved under Obama's presidency (from the free-fall of 2008). The Republicans have alienated minorities and women to the point where they have reduced their support levels below a critical point. A combination of these factors makes a Romney presidency extremely unlikely and will likely pollute the down-ticket races on the Republican side.
By my analysis, the 2012 election will result in Obama's reelection by a reasonable electoral college margin, the House will remain Republican by a margin of between 5 and 10 seats, and the Senate will remain Democratic by either 1 or 2 seats.
P.S. Even the most die-hard Republican needs to admit that Romney isn't a Ronald Reagan and Obama isn't a Jimmy Carter. Once Obama brutalizes Romney during the debates (Romney is simply a terrible unscripted speaker: 47%, $10000 bet, etc.), the Romney campaign will likely stall out and opinion will shift in a stark manner.
For those of us who live "OUTSIDE" the Media Hub of New York and Washington D.C., we tend to wonder just "What the Hell" you people are all about? I say that with a grin.... (lol), but it is true! Take when a tornado shows up in New York City or a major Thunderstorm hits our Capital.... that becomes a mainstay of NATIONAL News! We in the middle of the country must endure endless hours of news on such events and at the same time, shake our heads that a little "F-I" twister demands so much coverage? That would be the equivalent of a Water Spout coming ashore in Galveston, Texas, which happens about every su...
For those of us who live "OUTSIDE" the Media Hub of New York and Washington D.C., we tend to wonder just "What the Hell" you people are all about? I say that with a grin.... (lol), but it is true! Take when a tornado shows up in New York City or a major Thunderstorm hits our Capital.... that becomes a mainstay of NATIONAL News! We in the middle of the country must endure endless hours of news on such events and at the same time, shake our heads that a little "F-I" twister demands so much coverage? That would be the equivalent of a Water Spout coming ashore in Galveston, Texas, which happens about every summer day along some Gulf community!
In the same token, national elections are not won on the East (north of Virginia) or West coast! Rather, they are won in what's called the HEARTLAND of America! One good thing that our Founding Fathers were able to vision was that each area of the country be represented rather than the LARGEST cities and states dominating politics as a whole! That's WHY we're NOT a "true democracy"... rather a Republic!
So it will indeed be interesting this November. I'm pretty much convinced that my reasoning will indeed prevail. For, in all respect, it becomes rather difficult for many in the Northeast and West "Boxed" areas of this country to truly observe what is happening...... "Outside the Box!" :)
BTW, did you watch Romney’s speech today at the Clinton event in New York City? Rather impressive! No doubt it was attending by a very “pro-Liberal” crowd…. However, his “conservative” business style approach was rewarded with a “Standing Ovation!” If you watched it… you could see on the faces of the individuals they did not wish to…. But it was that good! Should Romney take that same style of commitment to the debates, Obama will certainly have his hands full and have no viable means to respond… he’s ALREADY committed himself that a “bigger govt” is indeed needed to get America out of the current economic woes!
That speaks VOLUMES to the HEARTLAND people! :) OS
Nice Thomas Sowell quote! :) OS
If you don't like paying taxes, you should simply move to an area without government (ex. Somalia) and build your own infrastructure, provide your own defense, etc. It is simply cheaper to let government do these things collectively, and trying to benefit from these services while refusing to pay is simple greed.
Is this a little clearer to you now?
AND TRAMPLES ON OUR RIGHTS..
http://www.sodahead.com/unite...
I agree that there is waste and that our government is looking more like a police state every day, but this doesn't mean that the government isn't vital to the maintenance of society and in need of funds.
We all know how that turned out.
We were told that Dukakis was Beating Bush by 17 points.
We all know how that turned out.
We need to all get out there and vote the Jackass-in-chief out of office.
It will be the same as the 2010 referendum.
Why? It is the econ stupid..... enough said...bark
GOMITT.