Alien Ramones' Estimated Delegate Totals For Paul & Romney:

by Alien Ramone Posted 2012/05/13 03:18:35

Related Topics: Pr, Politics, Alien, Romney, Votes, Discussion, Id, Delegates, Convention, USA, Mp

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IA: Paul - 14 Romney - 7
NH: Paul - 3 Romney - 9
SC: Paul - 0 Romney - 2
FL: Paul - 0 Romney - 0
NV: Paul - 8 Romney - 3 Bound to Romney Reportedly Supporting Paul - 17
MN: Paul - 24 Romney - 2
CO: Paul - 20 Romney - 16
ME: Paul - 21 Romney - 2
MI: Paul - 0 Romney - 16 *Possibility of Paul Support From Romney Bound Delegates
AZ: Paul - 0 Romney - 29 *Possibility of Paul Support From Romney Bound Delegates
WY: Paul - 1 Romney - 23
WA: Paul - 40 Romney - 3
GA: Paul - 0 Romney - 21
OH: Paul - 0 Romney - 38
TN: Paul - 0 Romney - 19
VA: Paul - 3 Romney - 43
OK: Paul - 40 Romney - 3
MS: Paul - 0 Romney - 25 Bound to Romney Reportedly Supporting Paul - 16
ID: Paul - 0 Romney - 32 *Possibility of Paul Support From Romney Bound Delegates
ND: Paul - 2 Romney - 20
AK: Paul - 6 Romney - 8
VT: Paul - 4 Romney - 9 *Possibility of Paul Support From Romney Bound Delegates
KS: Paul - 0 Romney - 7
GU: Paul - 0 Romney - 9
MP: Paul - 6 Romney - 9
VI: Paul - 1 Romney - 8
AL: Paul - 0 Romney - 12
MS: Paul - 0 Romney - 14
HW: Paul - 3 Romney - 9
AS: Paul - 0 Romney - 9
PR: Paul - 0 Romney - 23
IL: Paul - 0 Romney - 45
LA: Paul - 18 Romney - 8
WI: Paul - 0 Romney - 33
MD: Paul - 0 Romney - 37
DC: Paul - 0 Romney - 17
MO: Paul - 4 Romney - 12 *Possiblity of Paul Support From Romney Bound Delegates
NY: Paul - 0 Romney - 94
PA: Paul - 5 Romney - 27
CT: Paul - 0 Romney - 26
RI: Paul - 4 Romney - 15
DE: Paul - 0 Romney - 17
NC: Paul - 6 Romney - 36
IN: Paul - 0 Romney - 29 *Possibility of Paul Support From Romney Bound Delegates
WV: Paul - 0 Romney - 23
.............................

Note: Total delegates to this point = 1,415 (Based on "Fantasy Politics USA" info)

If Bound delegates vote for who they are bound to and don't vote present:
Paul - 233 (16%) Romney 849 (60%)

If known Paul supporting delegates and half of Romney delegates in states that could possibly have a lot of Paul supporting Romney delegates vote "Present" on the first vote, Romney would get 781 votes from the states up to this point (55%). Up to this point there would have to be another about 142 more Paul supporting Romney bound delegates scattered among the states to keep Romney under the 50% mark, which will be needed for a second vote. Also I read that abstentions actually lower the total votes needed to get 50%. Since Congressional Rules apply at the National Convention, there has been some discussion of a "Present" vote not lowering the required total needed to reach 50%.

Technotrucker_exposingthetruth 2012/05/13 04:25:52 (edited)

+6
Since the RNC legal council says that all delegates are not legally bound, they are considered free agents and can vote for whoever they choose. So the delegate count assumption for Romney is by no means accurate, and could actually leave him with less than half of the needed delegates for the nomination.

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More polls by Alien Ramone

Temlakos~POTL~PWCM~JLA~☆ 2012/05/13 18:53:33

+1
Unless the rules say specifically "present and voting," you need a majority of the full membership.

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Alien R... to Temlako... 2012/05/13 19:54:08

+2
In the following video at 1:29 there is a information about the total of delegates needed being reduced if there are abstentions. His wording is a bit awkward, and he doesn't say where he got that information from or if that is how it has been done in the past. There are so many opinions out there related to abstaining, voting "Present", or voting for a candidate other than who one is bound to, that it isn't clear what the results of those actions will be. In the past there have supposedly been abstentions, and in no cases were actions taken against the delegates, and it's not clear if any could be. The video that rekcuroncheT posted gives an RNC answer that makes it sound like delegates can vote for whomever they want:

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Arizona1950 2012/05/13 15:24:15

+3
Paul has won 20 out of the 24 delegates in MA

and who knows how many he has picked up since Santorum and Gingrich have dropped out of the race.

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Alien R... to Arizona... 2012/05/13 20:07:38

For MA (Massachusetts), I had the wrong designation of MS. Based on the Green Papers, Romney has 38 bound delegates and 3 Superdelegates, and from an article that I read that the Paul camp claimed that 16 of the Romney bound delegates are Paul supporters, so I broke it down as:
MS (Should be MA): Paul - 0 Romney - 25
Bound to Romney Reportedly Supporting Paul - 16

For Maine (ME), the Green Papers shows Paul with 21, Romney with 2 and 1 uncommitted so I listed it as:
ME: Paul - 21 Romney - 2

http://www.thegreenpapers.com...

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Arizona... to Alien R... 2012/05/13 20:13:32

+2
According to RNC rules technically there are no "bound" delegates ...

RNC Rules State ALL Delegates are Free Agents and Bound to No Candidate
Written on MAY 12, 2012 by V2A,

In an article last week, it was pointed out that many of the delegates that the states are actually electing are Ron Paul delegates. Though Paul has not won a single state in the primaries, he has won several in delegate counts. While the main stream media and the GOP apparently think that Mitt Romney is the nominee, that has yet to be seen.

Ben Swann of Fox News local 19 explains why the Republican National Convention does not recognize a state’s binding on their delegates, but, in fact, considers them free agents that can vote their conscience or preference.

Swann brought up the issue of the 2008 GOP convention when John McCain ran against Mitt Romney for the nomination. At that convention a delegate did not want to join with the rest of the state and vote for John McCain. Instead he wanted his vote to be cast for Mitt Romney. McCain won Utah with 62 percent of the vote in the Primary.

According to one source, Jennifer Sheehan, Legal Counsel for the RNC, plainly stated in a letter to Nancy Lord, Utah National Committeewoman, several weeks before the convention,

“The RNC does not recognize a state’s binding of national delegates, but considers each delegate a free agent who can vote for whoever they choose.”

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Alien R... to Arizona... 2012/05/13 20:29:52

I noticed that in rekcurtoncheT's comment. I was surprised that the RNC was very clear about it. Adding the known Romney "bound" Paul supporters and half of Romneys' supporters in states that were reported to possibly have many Paul supporters bound to other candidates, using the numbers I laid out, on the first ballot it would be for states so far:
Paul - 343
Romney - 781

If other candidate votes come into play for Paul and if there are more Romney "bound" Paul supporters, his numbers will be higher, Romneys' could be lower. I'm trying to get a sense of where the delegate totals are really at, since the MSM won't. Even though the mainstream has started to report a lot of Pauls' delegate wins, a lot of the delegate total estimates haven't been changed to reflect it. The Green Papers has been keeping up with states where the hard count changed, but still disregards reports in Iowa and other states.

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Arizona... to Alien R... 2012/05/13 20:33:48 (edited)

+2
The DEM/GOP and government controlled media DON'T want an educated public. They want total control ... this guy hints that Paul just may have more delegates than Romney but even he's not sure ...

Now please note that when I first saw this video I don't recall it having that strip across the top of it stating the concert will go on.

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Technotrucker_exposingthetruth 2012/05/13 04:25:52 (edited)

+6
Since the RNC legal council says that all delegates are not legally bound, they are considered free agents and can vote for whoever they choose. So the delegate count assumption for Romney is by no means accurate, and could actually leave him with less than half of the needed delegates for the nomination.

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Technot... to Technot... 2012/05/13 04:28:11

+4
Romney supporters, not gonna like this one little bit.

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Wally-M... to Technot... 2012/05/13 12:53:26

+5
I see a doucheapocalypse in our future.

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ConLibF... to Wally-M... 2012/05/13 15:49:32

+4
Not sure what that is but I like it! :)

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Wally-M... to ConLibF... 2012/05/13 16:34:25

+4
Romney's head exploding.

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ConLibF... to Wally-M... 2012/05/13 17:32:41

+4
I knew I liked it!

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zbacku 2012/05/13 03:53:16

The delusional Ron Paul supporters will indeed destroy America if he runs Third Party.
That is the ONLY way he will be running for President. A split vote will put the Marxist back in office and we ALL can kiss our freedoms and Liberty goodbye.

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Alien R... to zbacku 2012/05/13 03:57:04

+9
Ron Paul has made it clear that he doesn't intend to run in a third party and a recent Rasmussen poll showed that he would take more votes from Obama than Romney.

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zbacku to Alien R... 2012/05/13 04:07:30

Just like Ross Perot took more from Clinton. Yeah, right.

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Alien R... to zbacku 2012/05/13 04:29:02

+5
Ron Paul has a lot more crossover support than many realize, but he has made it clear that he doesn't intend to or want to run third party, so you don't have to worry about that. I think the only way he would run third party is if something changed to wake enough people up to make him the front runner. Right now he is just polling at 13% as a third party contender against Obama and Romney in the polls. The Libertarians already have a nominee. At this point the elections are close enough that it wouldn't be worth the effort to try to get together a third party and get on the ballot in all 50 states, considering what his chances are in a third party. Because of his crossover support, as a Republican nominee Paul sometimes wins head to head in the polls against Obama even though some ABO voters who would vote for Paul in the general election if he was the nominee, probably wouldn't show support for him in the polls.

I'm not one of the Paul supporters who thinks Paul will win the nomination, but the convention will be interesting, and I'm just trying to get a more accurate take on what the real delegate numbers will be. If any kind of challenge at the convention takes votes away from Romney in the general election months later, it just shows how fickle those voters are.

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Z to zbacku 2012/05/13 12:46:12

+1
Not comparable in anyway.

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Arizona... to zbacku 2012/05/13 14:41:28 (edited)

+3
Ross Perot did not get Clinton elected ... his opponent did.

edited: I had written Al Gore in error.

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gregaj7 to zbacku 2012/05/13 04:16:15

+8
The same happens with Romney as President. How long before the "Anybody but Obama" folk get that?!?

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zbacku to gregaj7 2012/05/13 04:23:10

Romney is no Marxist that will be dictator.

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gregaj7 to zbacku 2012/05/13 04:31:27

+9
Just a marionette, like Obama. Run by Rothschild through Soros.

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Arizona... to gregaj7 2012/05/13 14:44:14

+5
Exactly! Anyone who makes money and power their great love ... will always have handlers.

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gregaj7 to Arizona... 2012/05/14 00:32:48

+3
Worshiping tools rather than the Creator of all doesn't work-out very well.

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Dan ☮ R... to zbacku 2012/05/13 10:58:52

+7
He's already stated that he supports the NDAA, supports allowing the president to order the death of Americans, and has shown signs of promoting Keynesian economics.

He also, is at the very least, a socialist for promoting government control over the healthcare system in Massachusetts.

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Arizona... to zbacku 2012/05/13 14:42:42

+4
Globalist, Marxist what's the difference ... its the same direction and policy of taking down America for profit.

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Z to zbacku 2012/05/13 12:45:45

+1
Good. You should have learned long ago that supporting GOP policies was ignorant. You deserve this.

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Arizona... to zbacku 2012/05/13 14:40:30

+4
If you don't stand for the constitution and your rights ... you will reap what you sow with Romney. He is a globalist ... no different in direction or policy of taking down America for profit.

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ConLibF... to zbacku 2012/05/13 15:54:10

+3
Why don't you be the first Romney supporter here on SH to tell us exactly what Romney will do that will change anything. EXACTLY what and how will your man differ from Bush and Obama and what and how will he stop the coming financial collapse?

No generalities. No ABOs No better evils. No propaganda links.

Just explain how he is going to do it. Do not give us the same BS campaign promises that we have been hearing for decades that have produced ZERO change.

This is your chance to change Paul supporters minds instead of your usual non productive ABO chant.

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