9/29/2009: Confirmed - Global Warming "hockey stick" is a fraud!

Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Confirmed! Global warming "hockey stick" graph a fraud - data cherry-picked to show effect that wasn't there!

The hockey stick graph is a classic from years back, that has now been proven to be a fraud perpetrated by those pushing a liberal agenda, and using the debunked theory of man-made global warming to justify it. The graph was a centerpiece of Al Gore's fear-mongering. The researchers that made it refused to disclose their data, even though the study was funded with taxpayer money. Now we know why. I wrote on the hoax before (The hockey stick hoax), and showed that the hockey stick graph is totally inconsistent with data gathered in Europe:

stick hoax hockey stick graph totally inconsistent data gathered europe

The lead scientist was global warming alarmist Michael Mann, who should be stripped of any further academic duty by virtue of scientific fraud. In essence, man-made global warming is a hoax. It is not man-made, but it is Mann-made. From Planet Gore (via Climate Depot):

1: In 1998, a paper is published by Dr. Michael Mann, then at the University of Virginia, now a Penn State climatologist, and co-authors Bradley and Hughes. The paper is named: Northern Hemisphere Temperatures During the Past Millennium: Inferences, Uncertainties, and Limitations. The paper becomes known as MBH98.

The conclusion of tree ring reconstruction of climate for the past 1,000 years is that we are now in the hottest period in modern history, ever.

...Steve McIntyre, a Canadian mathematician in Toronto, suspects tree rings aren't telling a valid story with that giant uptick at the right side of the graph, implicating the 20th century as the "hottest period in 1000 years," which alarmists latch onto as proof of AGW. The graph is dubbed the "Hockey Stick" and becomes famous worldwide. Al Gore uses it in his movie An Inconvenient Truth in the famous "elevator scene."

2: Steve attempts to replicate Michael Mann's tree ring work in the paper MBH98, but is stymied by lack of data archiving. He sends dozens of letters over the years trying to get access to data but access is denied. McIntyre and Ross McKitrick, of the University of Guelph publish a paper in 2004 criticizing the work. A new website is formed in 2004 called Real Climate, by the people who put together the tree ring data and they denounce the scientific criticism:


3: Years go by.McIntyre is still stymied trying to get access to the original source data so that he can replicate the Mann 1998 conclusion. In 2008 Mann publishes another paper in bolstering his tree ring claim due to all of the controversy surrounding it. A Mann co-author and source of tree ring data (Professor Keith Briffa of the Hadley UK Climate Research Unit) used one of the tree ring data series (Yamal in Russia) in a paper published in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society in 2008, which has a strict data archiving policy. Thanks to that policy, Steve McIntyre fought and won access to that data just last week.

4: Having the Yamal data in complete form, McIntyre replicates it, and discovers that one of Mann's co-authors, Briffa, had cherry picked 10 tree data sets out of a much larger set of trees sampled in Yamal.

5: When all of the tree ring data from Yamal is plotted, the famous hockey stick disappears. Not only does it disappear, but goes negative. The conclusion is inescapable. The tree ring data was hand-picked to get the desired result.

Here are the relevant graphs showing the fraud:

inescapable tree ring data hand-picked desired result relevant graphs fraud

inescapable tree ring data hand-picked desired result relevant graphs fraud

Ouch! The only questions remaining now are 1) is Mann going to be thrown out for scientific fraud, possibly the worse offense one can make in academia; and 2) will the MSM notice and report on the hoax as much as they reported on it when the hockey stick graph was introduced? Chris Horner wonders:

So now the question is, if tree rings scream and their message is one that few want to hear, does their message get heard?
Steve McIntyre has the money quote:

I hardly know where to begin in terms of commentary on this difference.

- Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit in Yamal: A “Divergence” Problem

The above information is from http://www.sodahead.com/world-news/9292009-confirmed---global...
NOTE: Despite the discreditation of Mann's "hockey stick" graph as an out-and-out fraud, the purveyors of AGW hysteria are still relying on it! It this month's issue of Scientific American, at p. 21, there is an article entitled "Still Hotter Than Ever" which claims that a "new reconstruction of the past 600 years" "finds similar results." They just won't give up!

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Top Opinion

  • Bev 2009/10/30 13:30:46 (edited)
    This hoax is being found out just as the lies about health care and all the other phony spending sprees this administration is doing will catch up with the people. But, once a law is passed we are stuck with it and they are good at convincing part of the population that they are telling the truth and many of them have lying down to a TRUE science.

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  • Larson Whipsnade 2009/12/08 06:44:39
    Larson Whipsnade
    it is a well known fact that those who sell "gloom and doom" make up whatever statistics fit their agendas, without even bothering with any actual research. That is why they rest on their degrees, and not any actual data. it is why they get violently defensive whenever anybody actually puts their theories to any kind of test, and the first person they call is their lawyer, followed soon by campus security, whom they bully into dragging the offender off campus. Why? because questioning a PHD has to be illegal in some jurisdiction, and they need time to write that into law.
  • Ken "Do... Larson ... 2010/01/15 07:11:48
    Ken "Don't tread on me!"
    The sad think is that they have willing accomplices in their fraud with the left-wing media that refuses to print anything that would upset their socialist agenda.
  • Marlow ~ Let There Be Light 2009/11/04 12:52:30
    Marlow ~ Let There Be Light
    If the hockey stick theory is wrong, then they have nothing to go on. Their whole arguement rests on that. Thanks for this. Great stuff.
  • Ken "Do... Marlow ... 2009/11/04 19:15:09
    Ken "Don't tread on me!"
    It has been disproven twice now, first when the algorithm used by Michael Mann was finally obtained by skeptics and shown to produce a "hockey-stick," air brushing out 700 years of climate history, regardless of the data that was input. Then with the report set forth in this blog, indicating that the data was "cherry-picked." Even the U.S. National Academy of Sciences has now debunked it, and the IPCC has quit including it in its annual report.
  • Marlow ... Ken "Do... 2009/11/04 20:38:27 (edited)
    Marlow ~ Let There Be Light
    Thanks Ken. You are brilliant on this.
  • Ken "Do... Marlow ... 2009/11/04 20:46:09
    Ken "Don't tread on me!"
    Thanks Marlow, but I just do a lot of research on the issue.
  • Diane Spraggs Yates 2009/10/31 18:22:07
    Diane Spraggs Yates
    What is normal this year in Chicago we had no summer where was the gobal warming! And over a billion years where are all the records to see oh the dinasurs did not keep notes or the apes we came from which I do believe either Who is making money by this theroy the Democracts !!!!! Gore !!! Polar bears are increasing in numbers! Which scientist do you believe it is not a !00% agreed upon are your scientist smarter because they make you richer !!!!
  • Ken "Do... Diane S... 2009/10/31 18:28:35
    Ken "Don't tread on me!"
    At last counting, Al Gore had made over $100 Million on the scam and stands to become a billionaire if the "cap & tax" scam is passed. His company is selling "carbon credits" which are created by ripping out natural habitat and planting fast-growing eucalyptus trees in third-word countries. Sounds very "environmentally friendly" doesn't it?
  • Icanbean Arschloch 2009/10/31 06:54:01
    Icanbean  Arschloch
    Al Gore and the boys can sure spin a good yarn.
  • DanSuciu Icanbea... 2010/09/14 21:05:14
  • Icanbea... DanSuciu 2010/09/15 19:56:47
    Icanbean  Arschloch
    Okay. But have to admit that Al Gore is full of it.
  • Endless Roads 2009/10/30 20:28:38
    Endless Roads
    GREAT! Thanks for posting this.
    I've added it to the Headline page on my website www.PoliticalPanacea.com

    Interesting, how many people simply dont want to see things like this. Try and hand it to them, they get upset.
  • 12 Tone Melody 2009/10/30 18:45:48
    12 Tone Melody
    The global warming alarmists would have blind ideology triumph over science & reason
  • Jeff 2009/10/30 17:30:16
    This post is just a bunch of propaganda developed by climate change deniers.

    All the evidence available to science points to the fact that the earth has warmed significantly over the last 20 years when compared to recent human history. Scientist do not just rely on tree rings. They rely on human records that are over a hundred years old. They rely on geological evidence. They rely on ice cores. They rely on fossil evidence. They rely on all evidence that can give us a clue as to the temperature.

    Don't let these clowns pretending to be scientists fool you.
  • Ken "Do... Jeff 2009/10/30 23:34:22 (edited)
    Ken "Don't tread on me!"
    "All the evidence available to science points to the fact that the earth has warmed significantly over the last 20 years when compared to recent human history???" Your statement is meaningless - what if it did warm for twenty years, it is undeniable that it has cooled for the last ten! It is also undeniable that China had its coldest winter in over a century in 2007!

    Speaking of "science" I have posted scientific charts on this post proving that the "hockey stick" that all of this hysteria was originally based upon was an out and out fraud, with the authors "cherring picking" data that suited their purpose. Michael Mann and his cohorts are known to have sent an email to another scientist, whom they thought was friendly to "the cause" saying "we have to get rid of the Medieval Warm Period." That real "scientific", isn't it?

    Richard Lindzen, the Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Climatology at MIT, one of the most knowledgeable scientists on the planet when it comes to the climate, is one of those you call "clowns pretending to be scientists" who has been calling "bullshit" on the AGW scam for years.
  • RhinoRT Ken "Do... 2010/01/15 06:57:54
    It has been proven that similar warming/cooling trends has been going on mars and other planets in our solar system at the same time it is happening here, I wonder how the global warming dummies explain that one, so far I have not run across a single one that has a logical answer, I brought that up the other day and got blocked
  • ack Jeff 2009/10/31 23:05:05 (edited)
    Prove it. I guess you rely on Al Gore. He has a degree in Divinity.20 years does not make climate change. Hello. The planets' climate has been changing of the last 4.5 billion years. Here's a good book years climate change planets climate changing 4 5 years book
  • Ken "Do... ack 2009/11/01 01:56:15
    Ken "Don't tread on me!"
    You give Al Gore far too much credit, ack. The guy actually flunked out of divinity school! He not only sounds like an idiot when he speaks, he is one!

    gore credit ack guy flunked divinity school sounds idiot speaks
  • ack Ken "Do... 2009/11/01 02:31:48
    My Bad. I stand corrected. I guess I didn't want him to look like a complete idiot.
  • Ken "Do... ack 2009/11/04 19:17:07
    Ken "Don't tread on me!"
    That's okay - you were right on every other point. I saw in the paper the other day that some in congress are starting to question Gore's motives, inasmuch as he stands to become a "carbon billionaire" if "Cap & Trade" passes, and he has profiteered to the tune of $100 million already, dealing in "carbon credits."

About Me

Ken "Don't tread on me!"

Ken "Don't tread on me!"

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2008/01/02 03:35:31

At home by the river

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