Do bloggers know more about sea level change than the NSF?
c.stuartHardwick
2011/11/10 22:20:46
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6 votes
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4 votes
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2 votes
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11% | |||
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6 votes
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33% | |||
Read this blog to see why the National Science Foundation should listen to professional scientists instead of members of the lay public. http://cshardwick.wordpress.com/2011/11/10/the-nsf-corrects-a...
Then come back and comment.
Then come back and comment.

















Fill a glass with ice and fill it to the rim with water. Does the water go over the rim of the glass as it melts? NO.
The raising of the sea level will be influenced by the ice and snow that is on the LAND, that will melt and run into the sea.
You are correct though, the real worry is that the land bound ice will melt.
It should have read something like "In addition to increasing salinity, melting pack ice contributes modestly to global sea level rise and serves as an indicator to potentially more troubling inland melt."
I trust the National Science Foundation to precisely the same extent I trust a pack of rabid wolves with my six-year-old granddaughter.
Hm. And doesn't that give rise to the pleasant thought of throwing the entire National Science Foundation into a fenced compound with pack of rabid wolves?
Here is the reality:
1. Sea level has been increasing for a long time and will continue to increase for a long time.
2. Human activities are a contributing factor. No one know how much, but it's probably modest at this time.
3. The scientific community only notices these changes late in the game, and the overreaction of a few needlessly polarized the issue. (Eliminating cars for a wold of flower children might help, but only a bit, and not enough to justify the new problems it created.
4. Conservative overreaction to this overreaction has only made the needless polarization worse. Climate IS changing. Sea levels ARE rising. Pretending that all the world climatologists are just drug addled liberals will not make it stop.
5. This is all going to continue. We are NOT going to stop, or even curtail fossil fuel use because of it, though we can and should slow expansion where we can.
6...
Here is the reality:
1. Sea level has been increasing for a long time and will continue to increase for a long time.
2. Human activities are a contributing factor. No one know how much, but it's probably modest at this time.
3. The scientific community only notices these changes late in the game, and the overreaction of a few needlessly polarized the issue. (Eliminating cars for a wold of flower children might help, but only a bit, and not enough to justify the new problems it created.
4. Conservative overreaction to this overreaction has only made the needless polarization worse. Climate IS changing. Sea levels ARE rising. Pretending that all the world climatologists are just drug addled liberals will not make it stop.
5. This is all going to continue. We are NOT going to stop, or even curtail fossil fuel use because of it, though we can and should slow expansion where we can.
6. Long term, we need to ensure that CO2 stays well below the 900 parts per million that we know the biosphere can handle.
7. Mid-term (next century or so), ocean acidification, accelerated by fossil fuel consumption is probably a bigger risk to more people than seal level, climate change or weather.
8. Climate change is going to continue. We can adapt by pissing on one another until war and famine break out, or we can use these fancy brains to solve the problems it brings about.
9. Oh yeah, and at the rate things are going, Antarctica will be the world's bread basket inside 500 years
10. Lot's of species are going to die. We all like Penguins and Polar bears, but we are not Gods. Deal with it.
That's the way it is.
One also needs to note that the desalination of the sea ice above the waterline greatly exceeds the desalination of the sea ice below the water line. The ice below the waterline is more dense and most of the ice is below the waterline. Hence, the 2.6% greater volume you talk about applies to only a small part of the sea ice and only to that part which is multi-year sea ice.
Note also that due to the tilt of the Earth, contractions of sea ice in the arctic are often offset by expansions of the ice pack on Antarctica.
A 4 cm sea level rise is no big deal, but adds to the total due to thermal expansion and antarctic ice melt. Even that is currently only projected to be modest in the next century. Eventually, there is enough ancient freshwater ice sitting atop Antarctica and Siberia to raise sea levels by 100 meters.
Sea level was 100 meters higher during much of the cretaceous and 100 meters lower during the height of the ice age. Current climate change is mostly due to the end of that ice age---which, contrary to popular opinion, is still going on and has been abating throughout human history. While burning fossil fuels is unquestionably speeding the process, it is NOT the cause. Pundits on both sides consistently get this wrong. The few inches of sea level rise projected over the next century are mostly NOT anthropogenic. But if we keep burning fossil fuels as we are now, the 100 meter rise over the next few centuries will be.
No climatologist is worried about annual sea ice extent. Scientists are not stupid. Only permanent ice counts. BTW, as long as permanent ice exists, the last ice age is not over--that's the definition of an ice age. We talk about it ending 10,000 years ago, but in fact, it peaked 20,000 years ago and has been retreating since. 10,000 years ago is when it go...
A 4 cm sea level rise is no big deal, but adds to the total due to thermal expansion and antarctic ice melt. Even that is currently only projected to be modest in the next century. Eventually, there is enough ancient freshwater ice sitting atop Antarctica and Siberia to raise sea levels by 100 meters.
Sea level was 100 meters higher during much of the cretaceous and 100 meters lower during the height of the ice age. Current climate change is mostly due to the end of that ice age---which, contrary to popular opinion, is still going on and has been abating throughout human history. While burning fossil fuels is unquestionably speeding the process, it is NOT the cause. Pundits on both sides consistently get this wrong. The few inches of sea level rise projected over the next century are mostly NOT anthropogenic. But if we keep burning fossil fuels as we are now, the 100 meter rise over the next few centuries will be.
No climatologist is worried about annual sea ice extent. Scientists are not stupid. Only permanent ice counts. BTW, as long as permanent ice exists, the last ice age is not over--that's the definition of an ice age. We talk about it ending 10,000 years ago, but in fact, it peaked 20,000 years ago and has been retreating since. 10,000 years ago is when it got warm enough for most of the temperate latitude to be clear of ice and available to human exploitation.
The 2.6% volume increase accounts for the desalination gradient you speak of and many other factors. Again, while journalist on both side of the issue often are, scientists, as a general rule, are not stupid.
Again, I disagree that CO2 emissions by man are undoubtedly speeding the warming process. As for burning fossil fuels, well yes it puts the energy of combustion into the atmosphere and it puts some solar radiation absorbing particulates into the atmosphere which causes some cooling. Whatever the net result, it is so trivial no one has actually been able to measure it. A scientist should therefore hesitate to say "undoubtedly."
No, the 2.5% volume expansion is the difference between totally desalinated water and frozen, fully salinated seawater. The salination gradient above the water line reduces that volume difference.
i would ask crab/fishermen in alaskan waters and also in maine waters first, what they are seeing as compared to past generations first.
and also gulf coast fishers as well. then compare.
i believe they would have a relative factual knowledge over the too-smart-ass-over-educated-l... science practicioners.
weve had a lot of fresh water ice being melted from this summer and
also seeing advancement of some glaciers in alaskan/canadian wilderness as something to note as well. they're not melting fast.
Icleand/greenland area is over a volcanic hot spots thats moving east. so thats the reason for their metling.
our Earth is a Dynamic planet. we're just seeing a small glimpse of what used to be and happen on grand scale befor eman walked here.
been many periods of melt -freeze-melt-freeze. for various reasons.
you dont have a clue.
Sounds like sour grapes to me.
EXCEPT, as I kept pointing out, science has long recognized that the pack ice vanished in between the ice ages--which is why I say the arguments on both sides are overreacting. It IS happening, we ARE speeding it along right now, but stopping it is, as the other side screams, quite beyond us--even if we never burned another jot of coal. It's all foolishness, and we ought to be planning for it instead of arguing over it.
The thing is, we ARE NOT going to curtail fossil fuel use any time soon, so we would be better served looking for solutions to the consequences of climate change than pretending, at this late date, that we can somehow stop it if we all became hippies.
"Cardinal Fang! Fetch...the Comfy Chair!"
Regardless, CO2 levels have spiked far faster during the last century than sea levels or temperatures and this spike is unprecedented, and clearly due to fossil fuel consumption---as in, we can estimate the total number of tons of CO2 that have been released and the effect they would have and they match the observation. To deny this is just head-in-the sand silliness. Putting suddenly back into circulation gases that have been slowly sequestered over millions of years is dangerous--but levels are still relatively low. The risk is not so much from the quantity, but how quickly it has been released, and how quickly the already heavily impacted marine environment can adapt.
The earth has survives far, far higher CO2 levels, but has never seen such a surge in one century. We don't know what the sudden change in ocean PH will do.
Very commonly paraphrased as you'd put it.